Still plenty of snow on the ground, roofs, etc. here in Canton, GA..
One of our local stations totally downplayed this event and even criticized other stations for being "overzealous"... One of the meteorologists quoted this on his blog " So it looks like this winter weather event for Wednesday will more than likely not occur."
I guess I won't be watching that station anymore since all the "overzealous" meteorologists were correct and he was totally wrong!
Winter Weather in the deep south thread
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
GFS coming around too(though not as aggressive as the NAM):
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Extremeweatherguy
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
From ABC 33/40:
Preliminary Winter Storm Forecast
January 17, 2008, 10:13 am | James Spann | Forecast Discussion
Based on the volume of data we have seen this morning, here is our preliminary thinking. Lets cut through all this model mumbo-jumbo and get down to it.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain should move into the state between 6:00 p.m. and 12:00 midnight Friday night. The rain should change to snow in the 10:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. time frame as the Arctic air dives southward.
SATURDAY: Snow should be widespread across the central part of Alabama from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Most likely, there will be about a 50 mile wide band of heavy snow, with potential for 3 to 6 inches. First guess is that the center of the axis of heavier snow will be from roughly Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke. There will be potential of 1 to 3 inches of snow on either side of that heavier snow band. By the time you get to the Tennessee Valley, snow should be light and spotty.
For the I-20 corridor, this looks like a 2 to 4 inch kind of snow… for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. Snow should accumulate as far south as Montgomery, and a few snow flakes could be found before the day is done deep into South Alabama.
NOTES: We are talking all snow here, NOT freezing rain (no ice storm). Freezing rain events are the ones that usually mean power outages, not snow events. The snow has to be extremely wet and heavy for widespread power outages. Can’t rule it out, but again, this is not ice. Just snow.
Travel problems could be very significant Saturday morning, unlike yesterday’s event with temperature above freezing when there were very few ice issues.
THIS IS PRELIMINARY. The snow amounts and placement could change. I will have an update by 3:30 when the regular afternoon discussion and Weather Xtreme video is posted. Stay tuned.
Preliminary Winter Storm Forecast
January 17, 2008, 10:13 am | James Spann | Forecast Discussion
Based on the volume of data we have seen this morning, here is our preliminary thinking. Lets cut through all this model mumbo-jumbo and get down to it.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Rain should move into the state between 6:00 p.m. and 12:00 midnight Friday night. The rain should change to snow in the 10:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. time frame as the Arctic air dives southward.
SATURDAY: Snow should be widespread across the central part of Alabama from 3:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon. Most likely, there will be about a 50 mile wide band of heavy snow, with potential for 3 to 6 inches. First guess is that the center of the axis of heavier snow will be from roughly Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke. There will be potential of 1 to 3 inches of snow on either side of that heavier snow band. By the time you get to the Tennessee Valley, snow should be light and spotty.
For the I-20 corridor, this looks like a 2 to 4 inch kind of snow… for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston. Snow should accumulate as far south as Montgomery, and a few snow flakes could be found before the day is done deep into South Alabama.
NOTES: We are talking all snow here, NOT freezing rain (no ice storm). Freezing rain events are the ones that usually mean power outages, not snow events. The snow has to be extremely wet and heavy for widespread power outages. Can’t rule it out, but again, this is not ice. Just snow.
Travel problems could be very significant Saturday morning, unlike yesterday’s event with temperature above freezing when there were very few ice issues.
THIS IS PRELIMINARY. The snow amounts and placement could change. I will have an update by 3:30 when the regular afternoon discussion and Weather Xtreme video is posted. Stay tuned.
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Brent
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Re:
CajunMama wrote:Ok...what the heck happened in Atlanta last night? Went to the lafayette airport at 5am....deltal flight to atlanta...CANCELLED due to weather. Now i'm sitting in the new orleans airport waiting for an american airlines flight to miami and the connect to orlando. UGH! UGH! UGH!
Yikes.
Atlanta airport shuts down when the first snowflake is spotted apparently.
I guess it must have been a little icy. Sorry to hear that.
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
Birmingham afternoon HWO:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
ALZ011>015-017>050-181400-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
150 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINTER PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PULL COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
AT THIS TIME...A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY 3 AM AND WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85 BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
WEATHER MODELS ARE VARYING GREATLY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND A FORECAST OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IS PREMATURE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE WINTER STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS...AND
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
ALZ011>015-017>050-181400-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
150 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINTER PRECIPITATION COULD
AFFECT LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PULL COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
AT THIS TIME...A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BY 3 AM AND WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE NEAR INTERSTATE 20 BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85 BY MID AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE
WEATHER MODELS ARE VARYING GREATLY AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND A FORECAST OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IS PREMATURE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
LATER FORECASTS MAY INCLUDE WINTER STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS...AND
EVERYONE SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THE CHIEF ISSUE
THIS PACKAGE...BUT I EMPHASIZE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. IT IS TIME
TO BRING AWARENESS UP TO MONITOR THE FORECAST...KEEPING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN THE VAST UNCERTAINTY IN SOLUTIONS. THE
NATURE OF THIS EVENT DOES SHOW SIGNALS OF STRONG
ISENT/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FAVORABLE FOR A NARROW HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE RRQ UPPER JET PLACEMENT
AND POSSIBLE PHASING OF THESE TROFS. PLACEMENT OF THE THERMAL
RIBBON IS THE KEY ISSUE AT THIS POINT. THIS POTENTIAL GULF STORM
WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...BEFORE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE LEANING THIS DIRECTION
TODAY...WITH BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF
-SN IN THIS SCENARIO...STILL POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC FOR TRAVEL. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD BRING A BONIFIED HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR
OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THIS NOT HAPPENING.
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE SW UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE EPAC INTO
THE GULF STATES. THIS IS AT THE BOTTOM OF A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING
SW FROM CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHICH WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND HIGH
SITTING OVER CANADA. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD
THE CONUS BORDER...AND IS POISED IN EITHER SCENARIO TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PHASING THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WITH A STRONG DEGREE OF VARIANCE IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING. THE NAM PRODUCES A DEFINITIVE HEIGHT FALL/RISE COUPLET INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING (~20DKM)...WHILE THE GFS IS LESS
AMBITIOUS (~10-15DKM). THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO FALL
SOMEWHERE IN TN VALLEY OR DEEP SOUTH...ENHANCING OVERALL AGEO
CIRC/FRONTOGENESIS. THEN BOTH MODELS AGREE ON AN EAST COAST STORM
TAKING SHAPE. THE EARLIER PHASING OF THE NAM HOLDS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY FURTHER NW...WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING SHAPING UP OVER THE TN VALLEY...THUS ITS SOLUTION OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR US. TOP DOWN METHOD VIA NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
SATURATION...INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH BEST UVV
06-12Z. THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RA MIXED
WITH THE SN ALONG THE I59 CORRIDOR. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA. AGAIN...THERE ARE PLENTY OF
IFS...SO YOU ARE ADVISED TO CHECK FUTURE UPDATES. ATTM...WE PLAN AN
SPS OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS THE CHIEF ISSUE
THIS PACKAGE...BUT I EMPHASIZE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. IT IS TIME
TO BRING AWARENESS UP TO MONITOR THE FORECAST...KEEPING A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH GIVEN THE VAST UNCERTAINTY IN SOLUTIONS. THE
NATURE OF THIS EVENT DOES SHOW SIGNALS OF STRONG
ISENT/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FAVORABLE FOR A NARROW HEAVY BAND OF
SNOW SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE RRQ UPPER JET PLACEMENT
AND POSSIBLE PHASING OF THESE TROFS. PLACEMENT OF THE THERMAL
RIBBON IS THE KEY ISSUE AT THIS POINT. THIS POTENTIAL GULF STORM
WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...BEFORE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
AGAIN. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM ARE LEANING THIS DIRECTION
TODAY...WITH BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALONG AND S OF THE
I-20/59 CORRIDOR. OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF
-SN IN THIS SCENARIO...STILL POTENTIALLY PROBLEMATIC FOR TRAVEL. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD BRING A BONIFIED HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR
OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THIS NOT HAPPENING.
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE SW UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE EPAC INTO
THE GULF STATES. THIS IS AT THE BOTTOM OF A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING
SW FROM CANADA. ONE SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WHICH WILL SOON BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC AIR MASS AND HIGH
SITTING OVER CANADA. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD
THE CONUS BORDER...AND IS POISED IN EITHER SCENARIO TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PHASING THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE THIS
WEEKEND...BUT WITH A STRONG DEGREE OF VARIANCE IN STRENGTH AND
TIMING. THE NAM PRODUCES A DEFINITIVE HEIGHT FALL/RISE COUPLET INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING (~20DKM)...WHILE THE GFS IS LESS
AMBITIOUS (~10-15DKM). THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO FALL
SOMEWHERE IN TN VALLEY OR DEEP SOUTH...ENHANCING OVERALL AGEO
CIRC/FRONTOGENESIS. THEN BOTH MODELS AGREE ON AN EAST COAST STORM
TAKING SHAPE. THE EARLIER PHASING OF THE NAM HOLDS THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY FURTHER NW...WITH THE TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING SHAPING UP OVER THE TN VALLEY...THUS ITS SOLUTION OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR US. TOP DOWN METHOD VIA NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
SATURATION...INCLUDING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH BEST UVV
06-12Z. THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUGGESTS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RA MIXED
WITH THE SN ALONG THE I59 CORRIDOR. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE ALL SNOW FOR THE AREA. AGAIN...THERE ARE PLENTY OF
IFS...SO YOU ARE ADVISED TO CHECK FUTURE UPDATES. ATTM...WE PLAN AN
SPS OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM.
&&
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Extremeweatherguy
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- Location: Florida
Brent - That is amazing! Heck, if the NAM is right, then it might even be snowing back in Houston too. 
Up where I will be in Atlanta though, it seems as though all hell might break loose next Saturday afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
I might get to see my biggest winter storm in quite some time out of a setup like this!
Up where I will be in Atlanta though, it seems as though all hell might break loose next Saturday afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
I might get to see my biggest winter storm in quite some time out of a setup like this!
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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Re:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Brent - That is amazing! Heck, if the NAM is right, then it might even be snowing back in Houston too.
This system definitely has the potential to blow yesterday's right out of the water!
How long are you in Atlanta til? You might get stuck there...
If the NAM verifies, it will be by far and away the biggest snowstorm since the Blizzard of 93.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Re:
lol. I will be there until Monday. Hopefully by then everything will be clear and travel will not be an issue.Brent wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Brent - That is amazing! Heck, if the NAM is right, then it might even be snowing back in Houston too.
This system definitely has the potential to blow yesterday's right out of the water!
How long are you in Atlanta til? You might get stuck there...
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
Attention Opalstorm and Ivanhater!!!!!!
Sheesh. Get the snow shovels!
Sheesh. Get the snow shovels!
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GeneratorPower
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-180600-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
300 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL EXIST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION DURATION AND AMOUNTS.
IT IS RECOMMENDED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. RESIDENTS...MEDIA AND OTHER PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS INFORMATION.
$$
NADLER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-180600-
COLBERT-CULLMAN-DE KALB-FRANKLIN AL-FRANKLIN TN-JACKSON-LAUDERDALE-
LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARSHALL-MOORE-MORGAN-
300 PM CST THU JAN 17 2008
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY AND TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL EXIST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN THE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION DURATION AND AMOUNTS.
IT IS RECOMMENDED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. RESIDENTS...MEDIA AND OTHER PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE FOR THIS INFORMATION.
$$
NADLER
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Extremeweatherguy
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Here is the latest forecast for Alpharetta, GA (where I will be this weekend)..
Though the snow is exciting, the thing that REALLY gets my attention is the forecast low of 17F with wind gusts to 30mph on Saturday night! Those wind chills are going to be insane if that forecast is correct.
UPDATE - - They just decided to raise the precipitation chance to 60% for Friday night and 80% for Saturday now with all snow (not a mix) now in the forecast for Saturday.
Friday Night: A chance of rain, mixing with snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Saturday: A slight chance of rain and snow before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Though the snow is exciting, the thing that REALLY gets my attention is the forecast low of 17F with wind gusts to 30mph on Saturday night!
Those wind chills are going to be insane if that forecast is correct.UPDATE - - They just decided to raise the precipitation chance to 60% for Friday night and 80% for Saturday now with all snow (not a mix) now in the forecast for Saturday.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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GeneratorPower
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Brent
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Re: Snow in the deep south Mid January?
Birmingham AFD:
DETAILS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT SATURDAY MORNING STILL RATHER
SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AROUND 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD TRACK
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
HAS SHIFTED WITH EACH MODEL RUN. SURFACE LOW TRACKS VARY FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE NORTHERN TRACK SOLUTION
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE NAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WOULD
PRESENT A CONSIDERABLE SNOW THREAT TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER IT
IS DEFINITELY AN OUTLIER TODAY AS EVEN ITS PREVIOUS SUPPORTER, THE
ECMWF, SHIFTS WELL FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS SURFACE TRACK ON THE
12Z RUN.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE TOTAL QPF
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENT, BUT THERE IS A NICE CONSENSUS THAT
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS EARLY AS 3
OR 4 AM ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NOON
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT KEEPING IN MIND THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DETAILS ON A POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT SATURDAY MORNING STILL RATHER
SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AROUND 00Z
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN A NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD TRACK
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BUT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
HAS SHIFTED WITH EACH MODEL RUN. SURFACE LOW TRACKS VARY FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE NORTHERN TRACK SOLUTION
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE NAM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AND WOULD
PRESENT A CONSIDERABLE SNOW THREAT TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER IT
IS DEFINITELY AN OUTLIER TODAY AS EVEN ITS PREVIOUS SUPPORTER, THE
ECMWF, SHIFTS WELL FAR TO THE SOUTH WITH ITS SURFACE TRACK ON THE
12Z RUN.
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE TOTAL QPF
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENT, BUT THERE IS A NICE CONSENSUS THAT
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SNOW AS EARLY AS 3
OR 4 AM ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NOON
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS I-85. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BUT KEEPING IN MIND THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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HarlequinBoy
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Brent
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Re:
HarlequinBoy wrote:TWC mentioned a potential historic 5-6 inch snowfall for Birmingham.. I wasn't aware 5-6 inches was historic? It's big here, but not astounding. What's the avg snowfall across N/C Alabama?
EDIT: And I'm aware 5-6 inches.. esp from a TWC discussion isn't reliable.
Birmingham averages about an inch a year I think. They haven't officially had measurable snow since January of 2000.
Yes, 5-6 inches would be pretty historic. Not 1993, but still pretty big.
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