TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[wxman57]

one thing I noticed is that the cold air surge is hard to pick up in northern KS because it is already so cold there. However, with less modification of this airmass, it should become much easier to pick up and analyze once it reaches TX (especially SE Texas).

Up there it's just a thickening of the cold air and a wind increase with a slow temperature fall from the mid 20s to the teens. You're right, down south it'll have a more drastic impact tonight/Monday.

[gboudx]

wxman57, update from DFW NWS confirms that timing on 2nd surge.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDING WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES LOOK
OK FOR NOW. THE FREEZING LINE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST 8
HOURS. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF AN
EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...TO GAINESVILLE LINE WHERE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS. ELEVATED...EXPOSED SURFACES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
ICE STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN FROZEN BUT AS OF NOW MANY ROADS ARE
STILL WET. TRAVEL IS STILL DISCOURAGED IN THE ICE STORM WARNING DUE
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ICE ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND FLY OVERS.

STILL APPEARS THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL SLIDE THROUGH NEARLY ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WE WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IN THE SOUTHEAST TO A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH AND MOST
ROADS SHOULD NOT ICE OVER.

[southerngale]

Thanks, Greg. I guess the ice cream man will get to make another round today. I've been looking forward to the colder temps and then it stalls just to our west...I guess I'm a little impatient.

A question for you or another met...
The first shot of Arctic air was supposed to already be in place when this next surge of cold air arrived, reinforcing it. The idea was that the second push wouldn't modify much with the cold air already in place. Since the front apparently won't arrive here until about the same time as the reinforcing air, would this modify the second shot or would it not really affect it much since most of the air ahead of it will be a lot colder?

The 2nd shot of Arctic air was the one that has always concerned us in southeast Texas more. Take a look at the Weather Channel and see what kind of ground it'll be moving over. Plenty of ice from Dallas northward. It won't make any difference where the first frontal boundary is across Texas when it gets here. I"m afraid much of SE TX may drop below freezing by tomorrow evening with a good bit of rain likely.

Ok, thanks for the explanation. I didn't know how much warmer temps it would need to modify...now I do.

I did know that we were more concerned with the 2nd shot of cold air, but I just thought I would get the first shot before the second.

I do want colder temps, but I don't want to see problems with ice. Too bad we can't squeeze some snow out of this instead.

[Kelarie]

I know one thing ... if this event doesn't verify, my inner circle of friends and family will never listen to me again when it comes to weather!

Tell me about it... I would get laughed at and made fun of.... It better do something *shaking fist*

[Shoshana]

I know one thing ... if this event doesn't verify, my inner circle of friends and family will never listen to me again when it comes to weather!

Tell me about it... I would get laughed at and made fun of.... It better do something *shaking fist*

I have no doubt it will. Although in all my ice storm experience, i don't remember such a long time anticipating the ice storm - normally one day I'm sunbathing and getting burned on an abnormally warm winter day and the next I'm freezing my butt off and dealing with a sunburn at the same time...

This waiting around in anticipation of what the Austin American Statesman is calling a "Giant ice storm" is making me nuts. And right next to it the paper (online) says "Worst may be yet to come" like there's some tiny doubt that it will get worse.

[Yankeegirl]

I kno, I am getting ready for it too... Been hearing and reading about it alllll week... I hope it verifies, cause I am going to look really stoopid since I have been ranting and raving about it alllll week....

[simplykristi]

I would be happy to show all the sleet/ice and cold weather here. It's been in the teens for the last two days and in the 20s today. I would be more than happy to send this to SE TX.

Kristi

[Extremeweatherguy]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.UPDATE...
INCREDIBLY...UNEXPECTEDLY...FRUSTRATINGLY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. HOBBY AIRPORT WAS 55 DEGREES AT 7
AM...NOW THEY ARE AT 73 DEGREES! SIMILAR SCENARIOS HAVE UNFOLDED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SURROUNDING AREA THIS MORNING.
AMAZINGLY...ANGLETON IS AT 76 DEGREES WITH A SOUTH WIND AT 22
GUSTING TO 29! EVEN TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH ARE GOING UP -
COLLEGE STATION WAS AT 39 THIS MORNING AND IS NOW AT 43. HAVE DONE A
GRID UPDATE AS BEST AS WE COULD TO REFLECT WHAT WE THINK WILL HAPPEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND A UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
CANNOT SPEND A WHOLE LOT OF TIME DOING ADDITIONAL UPDATES THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO WORK NEEDED ON THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
WE CAN ONLY HOPE THAT THIS NEW FORECAST WILL BE BETTER THAN THIS
MORNING`S FORECAST.

[cheezyWXguy]

I hope you guys down south get some, but it may not be as likely as it looks...that cold air is so shallow that the rain is making it thru without freezing...this just goes to show, freezing rain and rain below freezing can be 2 completely different things...hope yall actually get some

[Extremeweatherguy]

well technically any rain below freezing SHOULD be freezing on some surfaces. If you are not seeing freezing on anything then it is not below 32-degrees. True freezing rain, however, is supercooled and freezes much more quickly.

[wxman57]

well technically any rain below freezing SHOULD be freezing on some surfaces. If you are not seeing freezing on anything then it is not below 32-degrees. True freezing rain, however, is supercooled and freezes much more quickly.

Actually, water doesn't freeze at 32 degrees. Technically, 32F is the melting point of pure ice. Water can exist as a liquid well below 32F.

Don't tell the folks (not you, EWG) in OK with almost 2 inches of ice that this first surge wasn't much to speak of. The 2nd surge is reaching central OK now, it's Texas' turn the next 72 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

Its below freezing here and theres icicles on my trees and benches, but the rain coming down is not frozen and its just making things start to melt...at least it was...im starting to see some puddles in my street begin to freeze up, butthe rain isnt freezing still...its just passing through the cold layer without freezing...i cant even remeber a time that this happened for more than a couple hours...but its been TWO DAYS!

[aggiecutter]

"INCREDIBLY...UNEXPECTEDLY...FRUSTRATINGLY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. " Ok GFS bashers, it was right. It said the initial front would stall and move back north as a warm front. That is what it is doing, although it was supposed to do this about 90 miles further north.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its below freezing here and theres icicles on my trees and benches, but the rain coming down is not frozen and its just making things start to melt...at least it was...im starting to see some puddles in my street begin to freeze up, butthe rain isnt freezing still...its just passing through the cold layer without freezing...i cant even remeber a time that this happened for more than a couple hours...but its been TWO DAYS!

well if it is freezing on streets and trees, then you probably are seeing freezing rain. I think what you mean by it isn't "freezing" is that you are not seeing sleet. You probably will not see any sleet up there (ice pellets) until later on tonight or tomorrow.

def. of freezing rain = http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/zr/frz.rxml

def. of sleet = http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/slt.rxml

[wxman57]

"INCREDIBLY...UNEXPECTEDLY...FRUSTRATINGLY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. " Ok GFS bashers, it was right. It said the initial front would stall and move back north as a warm front. That is what it is doing, although it was supposed to do this about 90 miles further north.

I remind you that the GFS moved the front back into Oklahoma today. Had Dallas in the warm air. That's not going to happen. The leading edge of the cold air is extremely shallow and the boundary has retreated north a little today, but it's not heading back to Dallas or Oklahoma. Just north Houston. The GFS didn't even have the first surge of Arctic air arriving here until tonight.

[JenBayles]

"INCREDIBLY...UNEXPECTEDLY...FRUSTRATINGLY...THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT IS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. " Ok GFS bashers, it was right. It said the initial front would stall and move back north as a warm front. That is what it is doing, although it was supposed to do this about 90 miles further north.

<heads off to meet the "white coat boys" by the large van outside with drool running down chin...>

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a picture from WFAA.com of the ice in Hurst, TX:



Also, here is a picture from Arlington:

http://forms.belointeractive.com/shared ... C00293.jpg

This proves that freezing rain is occuring in the area around Dallas right now.

[aggiecutter]

The winds in Oklahoma City have picked up over the last hour. They are currently 20mph out of the north. For most of the morning, they have been less than 10mph. I also just checked the current conditions in Austin. They are up to 90 with a south wind of 40mph.

Current Conditions In Oklahoma City:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... K&site=OUN

[Extremeweatherguy]

The winds in Oklahoma City have picked up over the last hour. They are currently 18mph out of the north. For most of the morning, they have been less than 10mph. I also just checked the current conditions in Austin. They are up to 90 with a south wind of 40mph.

Current Conditions In Oklahoma City:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... K&site=OUN

Austin is at 90 with a south wind of 40mph? where are you seeing that?

[Yankeegirl]

Well I dont know what they are talking about over there around Hobby Airport, but its still chilly here... I am sitting at 60...I guess the question of the hour is is there still a significant threat of that ice storm tomorrow night and into next week? I swear you would never know it by looking outside right now!!