Texas Winter 2024-2025

[opticsguy]

So the 1"+ of freezing rain for Longview isn't realistic? The power goes out in Wood/Upshur county when it rains hard. Hate to see what that much ice would do.

Per SkewT on the 12Z NAM, temps from 700mb down to 900mb basically ride the freezing line for the Tyler and Longview areas. This is a sleet/snow profile to me. Around 1" QPF during the day Thu.

Saw that also. It also looks pretty saturated, so limited evaporative cooling

[Fifty Rock]

If you don't have this printed and dog eared, then now is the time - https://nwafiles.nwas.org/digest/papers ... 7-Ryan.pdf

Damnit Bubba, I hate to read.

[Portastorm]

I’m still hoping we see a shift southeast to at least Williamson county for the snow. Will be watching future runs to see if they can trend a little colder.

It's not out of the question and perhaps we'll see some in the late stages of the event with some dynamic cooling as the upper level energy moves over us. But for the bulk of the event, looks like we'll be dealing with cold rain/freezing rain/sleet mixture. Might just be a little too warm here for any significant impact. However, I'd stay up on the latest forecasts and info as it could change.

[snownado]

What is the time frame for winter precip start mid to late week? I'm in N Tx area-Denton/Grayson county line. Will it be overnight Wednesday or during day Thursday? Thanks

Precip starts Wed night and continues into Fri morning. Some light stuff could start late in the day Wed but impacts likely start early Thu morning.

To add, could even see Watches go out as early as this afternoon/evening if the 12z models hold serve.

[orangeblood]

What is the time frame for winter precip start mid to late week? I'm in N Tx area-Denton/Grayson county line. Will it be overnight Wednesday or during day Thursday? Thanks

Starting to get a better picture of how these rounds of precip will unfold...looks like the initial round will move through the metroplex early Thursday morning (4-8 am) dropping a quick 2-4 inches then the main heavier rounds will move through starting around Noon Thursday thru late evening, maybe 4-6" will this one. Just an initial take!

[Ntxw]

If you don't have this printed and dog eared, then now is the time - https://nwafiles.nwas.org/digest/papers ... 7-Ryan.pdf

Baja closed low, with a phase. Pretty rare, but as the paper notes typically produces huge amounts. This is a good piece to read if you're learning pattern recognition to point out potential winter storms in Texas.

[wxman22]

Got down to 17 here. I’m ready!

[Ralph's Weather]

So the 1"+ of freezing rain for Longview isn't realistic? The power goes out in Wood/Upshur county when it rains hard. Hate to see what that much ice would do.

Per SkewT on the 12Z NAM, temps from 700mb down to 900mb basically ride the freezing line for the Tyler and Longview areas. This is a sleet/snow profile to me. Around 1" QPF during the day Thu.

Saw that also. It also looks pretty saturated, so limited evaporative cooling

Hoping that as the core of the low moves closer mid levels will come in a touch cooler. RGEM does look like a nasty ice storm though, it has the surface low a bit further north. For I-20 corridor of E TX, we want the surface low to stay further off shore. If it is near the coast there looks to be too much warm air brought up from the Gulf in the mid levels.

[Gotwood]

Latest HRRR showing precipitation starting as early as Wednesday morning. I know some or most may not reach the ground at this point but still interesting to note. As well as cloudy conditions already set in with temps in the mid 20s across the metroplex.

[Ralph's Weather]

Latest HRRR showing precipitation starting as early as Wednesday morning. I know some or most may not reach the ground at this point but still interesting to note. As well as cloudy conditions already set in with temps in the mid 20s across the metroplex.

That will at least serve to keep temps low Wed afternoon if nothing else. In DFW, highs may struggle to get above freezing as virga and flurries serve to evaporatively cool the lower levels.

[orangeblood]

Here goes the GFS again, much warmer across all levels (3-4 Deg F warmer)!!!!

[Gotwood]

Here goes the GFS again, much warmer across all levels!!!!

Lucky for us we are in range now for the close range models lol GFS can’t make my heart beat anymore.

[snownado]

Here goes the GFS again, much warmer across all levels (3-4 Deg F warmer)!!!!

Eh, not as bad as you let on.

But it did nudge closer from the 06z run to the EURO solution.

Would still appreciate a bit of breathing room to the SE though...

[Ntxw]

Here goes the GFS again, much warmer across all levels (3-4 Deg F warmer)!!!!

I'm not concerned about temps with it just yet. Still using it for 500H and the phase is just beautiful to look at. It's QPF output too is trending upward which is where it's warming the profile. That's the takeaway for me, it's beefing up QPF.

[txtwister78]

The one thing to take note of is where this coastal low develops and how close it hugs the coastline. You can see on some of the models (12z ICON for example and now GFS) warmer air surging north to perhaps complicate precip types as that coastal low hugs the coast even into DFW region. I think snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches up there per NWS is a good forecast at this point (which they leave some room here in their discussion for it to be a little higher). The good news is the Bastardi "shutdown for 2-3 days" looks increasingly unlikely as mentioned last night. Hopefully this is evolving into more of a fun event for a day for kids/residents across areas of West Texas into portions of N TX rather than the snowmeggadon that models (like the Euro) had depicted 24 hours ago. I personally think some of these models need to be recalibrated but that's a different topic for another time.

[HockeyTx82]

And here, we, go.....



"All it takes is one bad day (or model run) to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy"
-The Joker

[snownado]

I'll pass on a nuisance snow event.

Go big or go home...

[GeauxTigers]

What is the time frame for winter precip start mid to late week? I'm in N Tx area-Denton/Grayson county line. Will it be overnight Wednesday or during day Thursday? Thanks

Starting to get a better picture of how these rounds of precip will unfold...looks like the initial round will move through the metroplex early Thursday morning (4-8 am) dropping a quick 2-4 inches then the main heavier rounds will move through starting around Noon Thursday thru late evening, maybe 4-6" will this one. Just an initial take!

Thanks everyone! As a hs coach, we practice in mornings before school actually begins. Hate having to drive to school, then they decide to send us home and we're stuck trying to drive back in a mess. Again, thanks everyone for your valued input!

[txtwister78]

12z CMC depicting even warmer temp profiles further north with mostly sleet and borderline freezing rain into DFW. You can tell where your coastal low is

[bubba hotep]

12z models with a bit of a NW trend with the rain/snow line.