Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ronyan]

Is it possible to make a meteogram from the Euro/Canadian 12z output? I know we have wxman here that favors a warmer solution but would be interesting to see numbers from the euro.

[Portastorm]

It's goes against my personal experience, that if a 1050+ High pressure forms in western Canada that the cold air is going to go more east then south. Oh well will see what happens

My experience tells me that if a high builds down into the US and enters Montana with a trajectory down the spine of the leeside of the Rockies, it's coming south without a doubt. Granted the depth of the cold air may be in question but you can bet dollars to donuts that at least a shallow and very cold airmass is coming your way. The only way (again with that trajectory and entry point) it doesn't would be if you had a fire-hose, screaming Pacific jet. We don't have the latter at this point in time.

Unfortunately S2K was down earlier today so we couldn't post on the 12z Euro. It contains disturbing developments for the Heat Miser. The trough axis early next week is further west and south than the 0z run.

[Portastorm]

BTW, hriverajr, the 18z GFS continues the possibility of frozen precip in Central Texas next Tuesday. It looks a little colder for Texas early next week as compared to the 12z run. The 0-degree isotherm bisects the state midway through and heavier moisture builds up into the state from the south. The process starts, on the 18z run, somewhere around hour 156 and works its way through for 24 hours to Hour 180. Interesting.

[gpsnowman]

Well I just watched a couple of the local 4 o'clock weather updates. Showing nothing for next week except some low 40's for highs and 20's for lows. Cold but no precip. Maybe too far out to be certain?

[gpsnowman]

Before I get to sober I want to wish all Storm2kers a Wonderful New Year with lots of snow!

[Portastorm]

You too gpsnowman! Have fun tonight but be safe.

Happy New Year to all of you on this forum!

My hope and prayer as I write this is that we all come back next New Years safe and sound and -- between now and then -- we have plenty of exciting weather to discuss, debate, rejoice, and lament over.

[wxman57]

Is it possible to make a meteogram from the Euro/Canadian 12z output? I know we have wxman here that favors a warmer solution but would be interesting to see numbers from the euro.

I can do that, but I can't post it here. If you tell me what city to look at then I can tell you the temps from the 12Z Euro.

[Ntxw]

It will be interesting that the Euro continues to depict the core cold over the lakes instead of say the northern plains. This seems to defy the logic that the PNA is not all that positive and is falling into negative territory. This typically argues for drainage into the west and inter mountain west. I will be surprised if this model continues to hold it's ground.

[wxman57]

It will be interesting that the Euro continues to depict the core cold over the lakes instead of say the northern plains. This seems to defy the logic that the PNA is not all that positive and is falling into negative territory. This typically argues for drainage into the west and inter mountain west. I will be surprised if this model continues to hold it's ground.

I've been tweaking the Euro a bit to move the cold air off to the east...

[Ntxw]

I should've known

Where is Portastorm? We need to hack into NCEP and work on the GFS

[ronyan]

0z GFS run shows a 1056mb building in Alberta @hr 120 but drifts it slowly into the US.

Wxman: I was wanting to see Euro temp data for Houston for days 4-10, I understand there are some proprietary issues.

[Jarodm12]

every model run depicts a winter storm and extreme cold at different times i am almost sure that between the 6th and 12th of jan someone in text will see snow.

[dhweather]

Happy New Year!

Now if it will just snow ........

[wxman57]

0z GFS run shows a 1056mb building in Alberta @hr 120 but drifts it slowly into the US.

Wxman: I was wanting to see Euro temp data for Houston for days 4-10, I understand there are some proprietary issues.

Looking at the Euro Deterministic 3-hr temp forecast for Houston (Sugar Land area):

Monday 6th - low 32 / high 42
Tuesday 7th - low 29 / high 40

The Euro ensembles say:
Monday 6th - low 34 / high 44
Tuesday 7th - low 32 / high 45

Beyond Tuesday both the ensembles & deterministic have steadily warming temps (60s by Friday).

[Ntxw]

Happy New Year to all my comrades on storm2k! Amateurs and pros alike!

DFW snuck in yet another freeze last night (25th) even though the forecast didn't call for it, more upper 30s. Freezes this year happen as easily as 100s were in 2011. Another cold front is coming through Texas today and will bring back brisk and colder conditions after today's brief warm up. We'll tack on a few more freezes before another cold front decides to plunge this way for the weekend. Just after that is the period in question with the ukmet and GFS settling big high pressure from Saskatchewan to Texas (6z had 1057 into Montana damming cold air into the Rockies front range and oozing), Euro weakens it considerably compared to the other models, it's been in the 1048-1050 range on this model up in Canada.

Edit: GFS had 1060/1061 in Montana along US/Canadian border

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is certainly not a warm run. Not the 1060 but 1057 into Montana. It is at least early December cold. We're starting to pick up on the closer range and higher resolution. We were tracking this high since 300hr GFS and it's still there. Details as how strong HP is and cold air (-45 to -50s) in southern/southwest Canada certainly will play a role as depicted by the model. If there is a 1055+ hp cell system sitting on the US/Canadian border it's not going to pretty for wxman57.

It has DFW sub 30 for the rest of it's good resolution run once the big front passes. That's a good 2+ days.

[Rgv20]

6zGFS had some frozen precipitation for Deep South Texas on Tuesday with temperatures stuck in the mid 30s!

Edit: 12zGFS still has South Texas very cold for Tuesday, Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s but no winter precipitation mainly cold rain.

[Tammie]

6zGFS had some frozen precipitation for Deep South Texas on Tuesday with temperatures stuck in the mid 30s!

Edit: 12zGFS still has South Texas very cold for Tuesday, Temperatures in the mid to upper 30s but no winter precipitation mainly cold rain.

What about north Texas? Any moisture to work with?

[srainhoutx]

Happy New Year S2k friends. Nice to see the Globals converging on an amplified pattern that delivers very cold air all the way S to the Gulf Coast E of the Rockies early to mid next week. It looks like there is potential for a strong short wave to dive S across the Great Basin into Arizona while a Coastal low/trough shapes up across the offshore waters of Brownsville after the cold air arrives. Lots of details to yet be determined, but it appears very chilly air will arrive in a couple of shots late this weekend with a secondary shot late Monday into Tuesday. We will see.

[ronyan]

Very chilly 12z run of the GFS for Houston on the 7th-8th. It has IAH below freezing for ~36 hrs.