Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Brent]

18z GFS looks interesting in NTX in about 8-9 days.

just another cold rain on the 0z

Cold rain on the euro too but a lot of the snow to the NW like the storm last week

[WacoWx]

Looks like the area just south of Hillsboro is setting up to receive a decent training event over the next few hours. Would not be surprised to see some Flash Flood Warnings go out for that area.

[Cerlin]

18z GFS looks interesting in NTX in about 8-9 days.

just another cold rain on the 0z

Cold rain on the euro too but a lot of the snow to the NW like the storm last week

https://i.ibb.co/nDJDt0x/sn10-acc-us-sc-13.png

Can we get two storms in a row to split DFW? That’d be pretty funny.

[dhweather]

18z GFS looks interesting in NTX in about 8-9 days.

just another cold rain on the 0z

Cold rain on the euro too but a lot of the snow to the NW like the storm last week

https://i.ibb.co/nDJDt0x/sn10-acc-us-sc-13.png

Can we get two storms in a row to split DFW? That’d be pretty funny.

That's one thing you CAN count on

[gboudx]

All this rain moving into ETX with what looks like training happening, my son plays soccer for Rockwall High and they play in Tyler this evening. I wonder if there is any criteria where games are cancelled? I think they're leaving Rockwall around 2:30-3 today.

[wxman57]

Snow across the D-FW area next Wednesday, according to the 12Z GFS run. It can't be wrong again, can it?

[Ralph's Weather]

All this rain moving into ETX with what looks like training happening, my son plays soccer for Rockwall High and they play in Tyler this evening. I wonder if there is any criteria where games are cancelled? I think they're leaving Rockwall around 2:30-3 today.

Here in Tyler it has been steady but not heavy at all. Around an ince today and probably around or less than 2 inches total this week. That is nothing for this sandy soil around here.

[bubba hotep]

Snow across the D-FW area next Wednesday, according to the 12Z GFS run. It can't be wrong again, can it?

00z Euro has winter WX NW of DFW around the same time frame. There are major differences in how they handle the system coming down but they show some potential. Need a couple more runs before we declare an Winter Weather Model Watch Advisory for DFW lol

[Brent]

Only 2(out of 20) GEFS members have any snow so far though one has 7 inches

Long way to go here and also after the last "storm" the Euro HAS to show snow in Dallas to have a chance

Looks like the 12z Euro just has more snow for the Panhandle very little elsewhere

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111629
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Gloomy...isentropic upglide will keep it cloudy with periods of
light rain across much of the area today. Rainfall accumulations
will be primarily less than 1/10th of an inch. Further north
(closer to the 850 front) showers and even isolated thunderstorms
could bring amounts of around 0.50 inch north of a Brenham to
Groveton line. Diurnal temperature range today will be confined to
a small range...46-53 north...52-63 south. Sea fog is likely to
spread back into the area near the immediate coast as the offshore
winds in the wake of the cold front weaken and veer to the east
and southeast overnight.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Offshore winds have helped improve the visibility but not fully
across the bays. Nearshore waters though the fog remains and as
winds become more easterly late this afternoon/early this evening
expect the dense sea fog to scrabble it`s way back into the
ICW/Bays. Have hoisted a marine dense fog advisory for the
nearshore waters through 18z Wednesday ending with the cold front
passage. Will probably be expanding the marine dense fog advisory
into the bays in the afternoon package if the guidance is still as
bullish.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 550 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020/...





.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...

The cold front that came through the region during the day on
Wednesday should be in central Louisiana by Wednesday night.
However, the associated upper level trough will continue to swing
through SE Texas overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
means that the even though the front has pushed through, there will
still be some lingering isolated showers (mainly over the Gulf
waters) and that partly cloudy skies will linger through Thursday
morning. Now the skies are expected clear out from west to east
overnight Wednesday, but if is clears out a bit earlier than
anticipated, B/CS could dip into upper 30s by sunrise Thursday.
And I what to emphasize the SUN in SUNrise cause we will finally
see it again on Thursday! Skies will be mostly clear by Thursday
afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 50s north of
Houston Metro and into the low 60s Houston southward. These
temperatures are about 5 to 10 degrees below normal, which
combined with a breezy northerly wind will mean that it may feel a
bit brisk out on Thursday.

Clear skies and that northerly wind will bring temperatures down
into the upper 30s across most of the area Thursday night, but
Burleson County up through Houston County could flirt with near
freezing temperatures. Friday will be similar weather-wise, but
clouds will begin to increase from the south late Friday into
Saturday morning. Unfortunately, cloudy skies will continue through
midweek next week due to moist onshore flow persisting. Beginning
Sunday, there will be a chance of showers each day through
midweek next week as well. So, enjoy the sunny skies on Thursday
and Friday while you can.

Fowler


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A cold front remains off the coast this morning. AMDAR sounding
show a REALLY shallow frontal surface so expect there to be some
elevated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms may be
more likely Wednesday morning as a upper level trough approaches
the area. Until then, ceilings will likely be IFR the whole day
with a few pockets of MVFR when stronger showers develop. Cold
front off the coast is expected to stall and then push north
tonight. Winds should turn from northerly to southeast by
Wednesday morning. Quite possible IFR conditions will go down to
LIFR with pockets of dense fog along the coast for KGLS tonight.
Ceilings may not really improve until Wednesday night as a cold
front pushes through again.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 53 49 59 40 57 / 80 100 100 10 0
Houston (IAH) 60 58 68 46 59 / 80 80 100 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 62 62 70 52 60 / 50 60 80 30 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION...45
LONG TERM/DSS...LUCHS

[wxman57]

Snow across the D-FW area next Wednesday, according to the 12Z GFS run. It can't be wrong again, can it?

00z Euro has winter WX NW of DFW around the same time frame. There are major differences in how they handle the system coming down but they show some potential. Need a couple more runs before we declare an Winter Weather Model Watch Advisory for DFW lol

12Z Euro has 2-3 inches of snow right over D-FW next Wednesday. A little too early to believe any models. We'll have a better clue by next Tuesday afternoon.

[wxman57]

Only 2(out of 20) GEFS members have any snow so far though one has 7 inches

Long way to go here and also after the last "storm" the Euro HAS to show snow in Dallas to have a chance

Looks like the 12z Euro just has more snow for the Panhandle very little elsewhere

I see snow in your area on the 12Z Euro. Next Wednesday. Now, I'm not saying that the forecast won't change over the next 8 days. It'll probably shift to having two snow bands, one west of DFW and the other to the south.

[Brent]

Only 2(out of 20) GEFS members have any snow so far though one has 7 inches

Long way to go here and also after the last "storm" the Euro HAS to show snow in Dallas to have a chance

Looks like the 12z Euro just has more snow for the Panhandle very little elsewhere

I see snow in your area on the 12Z Euro. Next Wednesday. Now, I'm not saying that the forecast won't change over the next 8 days. It'll probably shift to having two snow bands, one west of DFW and the other to the south.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.png

The GFS does not the Euro. Euro has temps in the mid 40s

[wxman57]

Only 2(out of 20) GEFS members have any snow so far though one has 7 inches

Long way to go here and also after the last "storm" the Euro HAS to show snow in Dallas to have a chance

Looks like the 12z Euro just has more snow for the Panhandle very little elsewhere

I see snow in your area on the 12Z Euro. Next Wednesday. Now, I'm not saying that the forecast won't change over the next 8 days. It'll probably shift to having two snow bands, one west of DFW and the other to the south.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.png

The GFS does not the Euro. Euro has temps in the mid 40s

https://i.ibb.co/9NwNgLm/sn10-acc-us-sc-14.png

Oops! I was switching back and forth between the GFS & the Euro and thought I was looking at the Euro. OK, then, you can certainly believe the GFS 8-day forecast...

[gboudx]

All this rain moving into ETX with what looks like training happening, my son plays soccer for Rockwall High and they play in Tyler this evening. I wonder if there is any criteria where games are cancelled? I think they're leaving Rockwall around 2:30-3 today.

Here in Tyler it has been steady but not heavy at all. Around an ince today and probably around or less than 2 inches total this week. That is nothing for this sandy soil around here.

Well, they are at Tyler high school. But I won't be. Call me a bad parent, don't care.

Next long trip will be to Longview. At least next year the districts change and Longview is out, but Tyler stays. I can't imagine being a Tyler/Longview parent with so many games to Mesquite and Rockwall/Heath.

[Brent]

I see snow in your area on the 12Z Euro. Next Wednesday. Now, I'm not saying that the forecast won't change over the next 8 days. It'll probably shift to having two snow bands, one west of DFW and the other to the south.

http://wxman57.com/images/EC.png

The GFS does not the Euro. Euro has temps in the mid 40s

https://i.ibb.co/9NwNgLm/sn10-acc-us-sc-14.png

Oops! I was switching back and forth between the GFS & the Euro and thought I was looking at the Euro. OK, then, you can certainly believe the GFS 8-day forecast...

Lol no problem I thought I was losing it for a moment

[Ralph's Weather]

All this rain moving into ETX with what looks like training happening, my son plays soccer for Rockwall High and they play in Tyler this evening. I wonder if there is any criteria where games are cancelled? I think they're leaving Rockwall around 2:30-3 today.

Here in Tyler it has been steady but not heavy at all. Around an ince today and probably around or less than 2 inches total this week. That is nothing for this sandy soil around here.

Well, they are at Tyler high school. But I won't be. Call me a bad parent, don't care.

Next long trip will be to Longview. At least next year the districts change and Longview is out, but Tyler stays. I can't imagine being a Tyler/Longview parent with so many games to Mesquite and Rockwall/Heath.

Don't want to enjoy the beautiful 45 degrees and steady rain? I assume the field is turf, any games right now on grass will be a mess. I know my kids 6U soccer fields have standing water in this kinda weather and that is an interesting thing to watch haha.

[Brent]

GFS is catching onto the Dallas snow dome

[Cerlin]

GFS is catching onto the Dallas snow dome

https://i.ibb.co/Tc7VRjk/gfs-asnow-scus-35.png

Last time the GFS showed consistent snow, DFW was in the bullseye, but it missed DFW to the northwest, among it snowing everywhere else. So if the bullseye is to the south...

[Brent]

GFS is catching onto the Dallas snow dome

https://i.ibb.co/Tc7VRjk/gfs-asnow-scus-35.png

Last time the GFS showed consistent snow, DFW was in the bullseye, but it missed DFW to the northwest, among it snowing everywhere else. So if the bullseye is to the south...

Interesting theory