Texas Winter 2019-2020

[wxman57]

The EPO was supposed to go negative. What happened?

Well, that’s that.

Like pretty much everything else this winter long-range fun has never verified
Not feeling a big severe threat tonight it's still dark and dreary out

You need to think of it this way. Every time the long-range models predicted snow, they were wrong. OK, then, not they're predicting warm and no snow, so they must be wrong, right? It's a virtual guarantee of a snow storm.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just proves that long range forecast are not reliable, to many variables at work and models are more times wrong than right.

This winter is done, I am moving on to severe weather season and that looks to be above average this year.

[aggiecutter]

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0115.html

The warm nose strikes again!!!!!!!

Can we catch a break?

[TropicalTundra]

GFS shows a developing low in Mexico at the end of the run along with some moisture. I think you know what happens next.

[harp]

GFS shows a developing low in Mexico at the end of the run along with some moisture. I think you know what happens next.

I actually stopped looking at the GFS. It was depressing. What does it show?

[Brent]

GFS shows a developing low in Mexico at the end of the run along with some moisture. I think you know what happens next.

I actually stopped looking at the GFS. It was depressing. What does it show?

I still haven't forgotten the GFS burying Dallas all those runs

I kept hearing last month wait til after Valentine's Day what happened to that

[cheezyWXguy]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0115.html

The warm nose strikes again!!!!!!!

Can we catch a break?

This is why I am reluctant to jump on the hrrr. It has a clear bias toward producing discrete cells, especially in front of lines and fronts

[Brent]

Surprised how quiet the radar is even the line looks broken and sad

[CaptinCrunch]

Yesterday's DFW forecast for storms and 80% chance of rain was a big miss. All it did was drizzle off and on for much of the morning then nothing, even the sun broke out for a short time.

Not a bust, but definitely not an accurate forecast even within the 24 hour window.

[TropicalTundra]

Radar lighting up again... not looking too bad

[TropicalTundra]

Temperatures already falling pretty fast along the front. No front was really anticipated, let alone have any power. Maybe if a upper surface low develops we could see some wintry precipitation if it cools enough tonight

[gpsnowman]

Temperatures already falling pretty fast along the front. No front was really anticipated, let alone have any power. Maybe if a upper surface low develops we could see some wintry precipitation if it cools enough tonight

New Mexico is going to be the big winner this week. Winter storm warnings posted for much of the state already. Parts of the Texas Panhandle will also get in on the fun so we will once again watch from a distance. And once again cold air is the issue around these parts. A three day cold rain event is what we can expect for most of Texas with east Texas getting most of the rain. I will take it, it could be worse. At least we have some weather.

[Cpv17]

Temperatures already falling pretty fast along the front. No front was really anticipated, let alone have any power. Maybe if a upper surface low develops we could see some wintry precipitation if it cools enough tonight

New Mexico is going to be the big winner this week. Winter storm warnings posted for much of the state already. Parts of the Texas Panhandle will also get in on the fun so we will once again watch from a distance. And once again cold air is the issue around these parts. A three day cold rain event is what we can expect for most of Texas with east Texas getting most of the rain. I will take it, it could be worse. At least we have some weather.

This is absolutely true. At least we have something happening.

[Cerlin]

Absolutely pouring right now.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS looks interesting in NTX in about 8-9 days.

[TropicalTundra]

Already pretty cold here. It said 43F in the morning and it is currently 45F. How much colder will it get ?

[Brent]

39 degrees on my phone why can't we drop some more and have a surprise with all this moisture missed opportunity

[Texas Snow]

18z GFS looks interesting in NTX in about 8-9 days.

I looked at the forecast soundings over my house which look decent but since the surface temperature was 34° I feel like this one will keep will keep popping up again and again just to tease us only to end up at 37° and a thermal profile that supports cold rain.

[Cerlin]

There’s nothing I hate more than 37 degrees and rain. Well other than 36 degrees and rain. I do, however, love abundant moisture so we avoid a drought.