Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Cpv17]

I guess this would be good for us?

https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/199 ... 46709?s=46

[Stratton23]

CMC has another arctic front at the end of its run, courtesy of the TPV

[Brent]

Yeah news up here has a front next Thursday again. 2 different stations

Thats a very short warmup if it does snow Monday

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yeah news up here has a front next Thursday again. 2 different stations

Thats a very short warmup if it does snow Monday

It looks like a sheared out system in the gulf for next week with moisture confined to the gulf coast. Euro ain't as good as it used to be, but when it catches trends, we should pay attention lol.

[Stratton23]

AIFS, oh boy.. thats quite the 500 mb height pattern

[Brent]

Yeah news up here has a front next Thursday again. 2 different stations

Thats a very short warmup if it does snow Monday

It looks like a sheared out system in the gulf for next week with moisture confined to the gulf coast. Euro ain't as good as it used to be, but when it catches trends, we should pay attention lol.

But according to the NWS here the Euro went against the trends. Besides it's been wrong many times before. Just ask DFW about the foot of snow in January that didn't happen or February 2021

The overall most likely outcome still appears to
be for little to no impactful winter weather, but this will need to
be monitored closely as models have trended wetter for this period

they even mention some models have a few inches of snow

I mean it's still 4 days away we may get nothing but the trend is our friend right now. That's all we can ask for at this range

I should mention if we get any accumulation it'll be the earliest I've seen here since I moved in 21

[wxman22]

There were some very nice totals along the Red River from the snowstorm last January. But mixing really ate into the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor.

[Brent]

There were some very nice totals along the Red River from the snowstorm last January. But mixing really ate into the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor.

https://i.ibb.co/K4bVsN2/Janwuary9-10-2025.png

Yeah I thought I remembered a sharp cutoff in the middle of DFW. It was definitely supposed to be south of us entirely and we ended up with the biggest snow day in 11 years

But anyway yeah the talk about Monday has definitely gotten more bullish since yesterday. It'll be interesting if it pans out because yeah it's so early

Just goes to show how much can change in a short time

[Gotwood]

So we went from an arctic front to your run of the mill cold front for winter lol.

[Stratton23]

The airmass is still arctic in nature, its too early in the season for a significant cold air outbreak, gotta build the snowpack to our north first, but mid december and beyond could possibly turn colder again with the MJO going into phase 8, ensembles are definitely alluding to this

[Cpv17]

So we went from an arctic front to your run of the mill cold front for winter lol.

I would say it’s gonna end up being a bit stronger than your standard winter front but not anything crazy. The lack of snowpack to our N is really gonna modify the temps.

[Stratton23]

MJO looks like its going to stall in phase 8 for the majority of december, could be quite interesting if that happens

[Gotwood]

MJO looks like its going to stall in phase 8 for the majority of december, could be quite interesting if that happens

Below Avg for Texas cold for the east.

[Sambucol2024]

MJO looks like its going to stall in phase 8 for the majority of december, could be quite interesting if that happens

Phase 8 is the golden number for cold weather I think.

[txtwister78]

Big warmup ahead late next wk into the 2nd wk of December on the ensembles. Anything beyond that is wild guessing and model shopping via the extended.

Keep in mind January & February are our coldest months relative to averages but not surprising to see some chill mixed in. Get ready for the roller-coaster.

Not the pattern yet however for big cold down into Texas. Hope everyone is enjoying their Thanksgiving.

[Stratton23]

Its nice to enjoy a cool thanksgiving for once, none of that 70’s 80’s garbage lol, hope everyone had a great thanksgiving! I look forward to watching how models trend over the next 2 weeks with the MJO going into phase 8 which usually is a really good phase for cold in texas

[Cpv17]

MJO looks like its going to stall in phase 8 for the majority of december, could be quite interesting if that happens

Phase 8 is the golden number for cold weather I think.

I think 8 and 2 are good phases for Texas cold.

[Iceresistance]

Its nice to enjoy a cool thanksgiving for once, none of that 70’s 80’s garbage lol, hope everyone had a great thanksgiving! I look forward to watching how models trend over the next 2 weeks with the MJO going into phase 8 which usually is a really good phase for cold in texas

I reached 57 today, which is near normal for Thanksgiving. Not the super torchy stuff I never wanted to get used to

[Brent]

AccuWeather still has pretty good odds for some light accumulation here Monday. Unfortunately it's AccuWeather

Again any accumulation here would be the earliest in many years

[Wthrfan]

This record probably won't hold,but as of today, this is the warmest November in OKC history. Three of the top 9 warmest Decembers were 2021 (1st),2023 (6th) and 2024 (9th). Here's to hoping we don't see a repeat this year. The next week looks pretty decent with near normal temps after the brief cold. I'll take that as a win!