Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Ntxw]

Happy Hour GEFS hitting the sauce pretty hard and showing a mean of nearly 3" at DFW lol

https://i.ibb.co/R4DXBXC/18z-GEFS08.png

Fingers crossed that for once upper dynamics and supercooled rain droplets does the trick. It's been a long time since that happened. Maybe we can have a March 2008 redux where a band of heavy wet snow really dumps for a short time in the lucky corridor.

[bubba hotep]

The 21z SREF Plumes don't show anything for DFW but do look good for the northern burbs.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro EPS for DFW, mean up near 1"!

[bubba hotep]

Happy Hour GEFS hitting the sauce pretty hard and showing a mean of nearly 3" at DFW lol

https://i.ibb.co/R4DXBXC/18z-GEFS08.png

Fingers crossed that for once upper dynamics and supercooled rain droplets does the trick. It's been a long time since that happened. Maybe we can have a March 2008 redux where a band of heavy wet snow really dumps for a short time in the lucky corridor.

The timing is right, late night/early morning, so whatever cooling we can get will be maximized.

[Cerlin]

00z GFS showing the same solution it has the last 2 runs fwiw

Actually a bit more coverage southward.

00z NAM 12km has a slightly more south but slightly bigger snowband, 3km has nothing.

[WeatherNewbie]

Let’s hope a southward shift is not too southward though. I’d be less surprised if cities south of the metro got snow than off DFW did at this point

I mean, we all know recent history

I'm still not that optimistic tbh, our track record is beyond horrible lately

gambler's fallacy

[rwfromkansas]

I am not even looking for it it’s such a slim chance. That way, I can get a nice surprise if a miracle happens.

[missygirl810]

Hoping y'all get something!! I am not in Hunt Co right now, I am in Central Arkansas taking care of my mom that has dementia now and had to leave my family there to come here. I think we might get something here, but who knows lol!!

[Brent]

0z Euro has the highest amounts right across the metro over an inch to an inch and a half for Fort Worth Dallas Plano and McKinney

I kind of question this map because at the same time it has temps 36 and above everywhere

[Cerlin]

0z Euro has the highest amounts right across the metro over an inch to an inch and a half for Fort Worth Dallas Plano and McKinney

I kind of question this map because at the same time it has temps 36 and above everywhere

https://i.ibb.co/fNSNxcJ/sn10-acc-us-city-dfw-1.png

That’s the thing getting me. All these maps and models with snow are super fun to watch and look at, but I don’t think any of them have DFW at or below freezing. In most cases that’s a dealbreaker for anything good. *most* times.

[Brent]

0z Euro has the highest amounts right across the metro over an inch to an inch and a half for Fort Worth Dallas Plano and McKinney

I kind of question this map because at the same time it has temps 36 and above everywhere

https://i.ibb.co/fNSNxcJ/sn10-acc-us-city-dfw-1.png

That’s the thing getting me. All these maps and models with snow are super fun to watch and look at, but I don’t think any of them have DFW at or below freezing. In most cases that’s a dealbreaker for anything good. *most* times.

It doesn't look like on the Euro it ever fully changes over either

so yeah I'm having issues believing there would be significant accumulation

[Cerlin]

In addition, at least 80% if not more of the Euro ensemble members have snow for dfw, some having upwards of 3 inches. It’s quite strange, I’ve never seen such agreement among models for a solution that makes no sense with the given parameters.

[TheProfessor]

I haven't personally looked at the column of air for this system, but everyone should member that it doesn't need to be at or below freezing to snow. There are so many little dynamic process that can make a difference on whether it's rain or snow. There were a few times in Ohio where I'd get snow falling at 42 degrees, though it was usually due to very cold 850 levels. Still if you can get some solid evaporative cooling down near the surface you can get the temperature closer to freezing than modeled.

[somethingfunny]

In addition, at least 80% if not more of the Euro ensemble members have snow for dfw, some having upwards of 3 inches. It’s quite strange, I’ve never seen such agreement among models for a solution that makes no sense with the given parameters.

You can't really get much better than those model odds. This seems like one of those classic "models playing catch-up a day or two out" situations.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if it snows at this point. We'll probably get some white roofs out of the deal, maybe vehicles and mulchy ground cover too. I would be quite surprised if we got any real accumulations though. Skeptical of a proper ground dusting.

[TheProfessor]

Ok, I took a quick look at the 0z GFS at hour 36 and from the Skew-ts I'm seeing the greatest concern for the northern Metro would be a lack of moisture or possible virga(you may see some snow on radar but not on the ground initially) But do to the dry air you're likely going to see evaporative cooling occur. The surface temp might end up at or just above freezing, but nearly the entire column just above the surface is below freezing. If the GFS has a correct temperature profile then I'd say there's a pretty decent chance at seeing snow, especially in Collin County.

[Cerlin]

6z HRRR has snow and sleet for DFW. Sounding has the same level of freezing air just above the surface as stated before. Looks to be running about 34-35 degrees on the surface with tiny pockets of 32 degree weather indicating possible evaporative cooling in certain areas? Promising to say the least.

[Ralph's Weather]

0z Euro has the highest amounts right across the metro over an inch to an inch and a half for Fort Worth Dallas Plano and McKinney

I kind of question this map because at the same time it has temps 36 and above everywhere

https://i.ibb.co/fNSNxcJ/sn10-acc-us-city-dfw-1.png

That’s the thing getting me. All these maps and models with snow are super fun to watch and look at, but I don’t think any of them have DFW at or below freezing. In most cases that’s a dealbreaker for anything good. *most* times.

Some of our best snows have featured temps above freezing. Snow around here with temps in the 20s is rare.

[Ralph's Weather]

All models in remarkable agreement on a band from generally Abilene to Paris being the focus. Areas SW of DFW will have an elevation advantage so I could see a couple inches down there with up to an inch from Stephenville up through DFW and points NE until 6ou get back into higher elevations in OK and AR where a few inches may fall.

[gpsnowman]

All models in remarkable agreement on a band from generally Abilene to Paris being the focus. Areas SW of DFW will have an elevation advantage so I could see a couple inches down there with up to an inch from Stephenville up through DFW and points NE until 6ou get back into higher elevations in OK and AR where a few inches may fall.

Fox 4 morning outlook has us down to 34 Tuesday, cold enough for snow. Additionally the low 40"s forcasted high will probably occur after midnight leavimg much of Tuesday hanging out in the 30's.

[Ntxw]

The risk for changeover to snow or snow mix tomorrow morning at DFW (and the I-20/I-30 corridor) is increasing. WPC has highlighted the risk. Temperatures during the precipitation period will cool underneath the band of rain via dynamics. It will be 33-34 in the core of the band while mid to upper 30s outside of it. This is the kind of situation central and southeast Texas have had the past few events, only this is displaced further north. Rush hour tomorrow morning will probably be a mess.