Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Tireman4]

Some of you should stop basing next week on 1 or 2 model runs. We see this all......the......time. They change, especially in the long-term(7+ days out). Take anything you see with a grain of salt, even if they're showing a foot of snow. There's just not enough data in the models to even been close to accurate at this point.

Cat 5 in the Gulf...

[spencer817]

Mostly brief 50's and 30's on 12z from the first front.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Accuweather (I know, I know), has a forecasted high of 38 and a low of 19, with a 50% chance of precip on 12/13 for my location. At least some sources are seeing the cold.

[Brent]

12z GFS does have a winter storm at 372-384 hours but this is the LR GFS

I wanna see it inside 100 hours

At least the pattern looks active and colder than it has been

[Ralph's Weather]

On thing to remember in all of this is it seems like most of our coldest outbreaks have occurred near the winter solstice. With the blocking that is setting up I think we are in for major cold around then again this year. Now we have to hope for a SW low during one of these outbreaks.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GFS operational day 10 cold quotient for US plains east ( inverse PNA plus ao,nao,epo,wpo) an impressive -11! Even Day 16 on GEFS still -7.5. As impressive given ensembles in longer terms tend toward normals.

[orangeblood]

Another data point to monitor is the source region....check out some of the air in Northeastern Siberia poised to break off and head to our side of the globe over the coming weeks. That is some incredibly frigid air for late November

[orangeblood]

Latest 12Z GFS ENS run has bullseye of Cold directly into the Southern Plains, further west than previous runs and are trending much colder. Also, the ENS mean has a swath along the I-20 corridor of 2-3 inches of snow - some big winter storms showing up on some of the individual members

Pretty impressive 5 day Avg Temp Anamolies this far out

[Brent]

Euro has some rain Monday Night this run, not as dry as it has been

Comes real close to a DFW freeze next Friday morning, colder than previous runs

The end of the run is cold

[Ntxw]

Latest 12Z GFS ENS run has bullseye of Cold directly into the Southern Plains, further west than previous runs and are trending much colder. Also, the ENS mean has a swath along the I-20 corridor of 2-3 inches of snow - some big winter storms showing up on some of the individual members

Pretty impressive 5 day Avg Temp Anamolies this far out
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... n_us_9.png

Models like to bundle the cold with the low pressure area when often it is associated with the surface high. Nearly all guidance dives the high due S. Stick to the ensembles until within 3-5 days.

[Snowman67]

Another data point to monitor is the source region....check out some of the air in Northeastern Siberia poised to break off and head to our side of the globe over the coming weeks. That is some incredibly frigid air for late November

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPzJ5epW0AAzp98.jpg:large

The report out of Qaarsut (-76F) is apparently a false reading. The forecast for that area shows highs in 30's and lows in 20'sF tonight. Nonetheless, there is a lot of cold air in Siberia...

[gboudx]

This website doesn't show temps that warm.

https://www.foreca.com/Greenland/Qaarsut?obshist

Also, that -76 should probably be C not F.

[Snowman67]

This website doesn't show temps that warm.

https://www.foreca.com/Greenland/Qaarsut?obshist

Also, that -76 should probably be C not F.

Did find this snippet on the weather.com website today though:

Where is the Coldest Air Right Now?

Siberia is the epicenter of the most extreme cold in the Northern Hemisphere at this time.

A low temperature of minus 69 degrees Fahrenheit was recorded early Tuesday in Delyankir, Russia, a region that's generally regarded as the coldest inhabited place on the Earth. A temperature this cold is the norm in this area during the heart of winter, but it's significantly colder than the average November low of close to minus 40.

[wxman57]

I certainly believe the 12Z GFS' prediction of snow all across Texas on the 15th. Has the 384hr GFS ever been wrong?

[Tireman4]

I certainly believe the 12Z GFS' prediction of snow all across Texas on the 15th. Has the 384hr GFS ever been wrong?

Well, I for one do believe. You promised a colder winter sir. Remember?

[Texas Snowman]

Well, it must be wintertime - almost, I suppose - if our lovable Heat Miser is showing up again to taunt us snow loving, cold mongering folks in Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

I certainly believe the 12Z GFS' prediction of snow all across Texas on the 15th. Has the 384hr GFS ever been wrong?

I dunno, but it looks like good bicycle riding weather to me!

[Theepicman116]

The panhandle needs to stop hogging all the snow!
The GFS is calling for snow in the panhandle next week while DFW gets just rain.

[EnnisTx]

I certainly believe the 12Z GFS' prediction of snow all across Texas on the 15th. Has the 384hr GFS ever been wrong?

Well, I for one do believe. You promised a colder winter sir. Remember?

I believe this is certainly the correct forecast!

[Snowman67]

I certainly believe the 12Z GFS' prediction of snow all across Texas on the 15th. Has the 384hr GFS ever been wrong?

Greetings wxman57. It's that time of the year that you begin to torment us cold lovers

Question - are there any public resources you are aware of that I can look up the accuracy rates of these long range forecasts (i.e the accuracy rate of the GFS at 3, 5, 10, 14 days out)?

Thanks in advance.