Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Don't worry too much about the surface temperatures. Dew points are very low, often times it's what's going on up that matters. Middle 20s and 40 surface temps can often times yield wintry precip fairly well.

Current wetbulb potential from SPC (temp in which precip can cool air to)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Texas Snowman]

From Joe B this morning:


@BigJoeBastardi: "change in CFS forecast for Feb from a few weeks ago http://pic.twitter.com/iCn91A51.

[Portastorm]

From Joe B this morning:


@BigJoeBastardi: "change in CFS forecast for Feb from a few weeks ago http://pic.twitter.com/iCn91A51.

That's a rather substantial change!

[hriverajr]

From Joe B this morning:


@BigJoeBastardi: "change in CFS forecast for Feb from a few weeks ago http://pic.twitter.com/iCn91A51.

That's a rather substantial change!

I'm looking forward to a cool wet spring and summer

[Longhornmaniac8]

Radar returns are showing snow entering the San Antonio area now, any reports on the ground?

Porta, SW Travis County may be Austin's best shot at seeing any of this, but it needs to hurry its ass up!

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like the cloud cover kept Houston Intercontinental from recording a freeze but it got close:

12 07:53 NE 15 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN130 BKN250 34 15 46% 24 30.55 1034.6

EDIT: Hooks made it down to 33, Galveston down to 37.

[Portastorm]

Radar returns are showing snow entering the San Antonio area now, any reports on the ground?

Porta, SW Travis County may be Austin's best shot at seeing any of this, but it needs to hurry its ass up!

Well, as you saw from Ntxw's post above, we have some "potential" with evaporative cooling but yeah, the longer it waits, the more the air aloft will warm. It if doesn't start here in the next hour or two, I think our window may close.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the cloud cover kept Houston Intercontinental from recording a freeze but it got close:

12 07:53 NE 15 10.00 Mostly Cloudy BKN130 BKN250 34 15 46% 24 30.55 1034.6

EDIT: Hooks made it down to 33, Galveston down to 37.

31F here in NW Harris County. Brenham, Conroe, Hunstville and Wharton all were 32F or colder...Jet blast at IAH always does that as well as heat island effect...

[ndale]

I grew up in Kerrville so just looked on twitter at some posts from there, it has been sleeting, now just started snowing.

[Texas Snowman]

Don't give up Portastorm.

The developments of the last 48 hours (freezing temperatures diving deep into the state and winter precip breaking out) apparently have sent the resident Warmmonger into hiding!

And that's just a couple of days after his "winter cancel" statement!

[ndale]

Just watching the movement of the precip on radar, I think by the time it reaches us here in nortrh Austin it may just be rain.

[Tireman4]

From Joe B this morning:


@BigJoeBastardi: "change in CFS forecast for Feb from a few weeks ago http://pic.twitter.com/iCn91A51.

That's a rather substantial change!

I'm looking forward to a cool wet spring and summer

I want a COLD summer. Please...!!!!

[Ntxw]

Well, as you saw from Ntxw's post above, we have some "potential" with evaporative cooling but yeah, the longer it waits, the more the air aloft will warm. It if doesn't start here in the next hour or two, I think our window may close.

Just don't pin it on me if it doesn't . Don't look at the radar and say 'hey there's a speck of precip why isn't it evap cooling us to 28?!" It has to be heavy for max effect

[Tireman4]

We are officially down to 32 now. One item of note. The trof exiting California is moving faster than progged I believe. Precipitation amounts may be higher than forecast. The question is when will the warm advection kick in, and make it just a cold rain? Wish it was snow here.. but some form of winter weather is better than no winter weather.

Good stuff! And technically, doesn't that make two different sleet "episodes" in Del Rio in the last few weeks?

Thanks for the great video, too! I wonder where the King of Warm mongerers is this morning?

On his indoor trainer....he ha...get those miles in Wxman 57....indoor style...

[Portastorm]

Of interest ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
956 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

.UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THRU 6 PM. NO CHANGE TO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ADJACENT AREAS. MAY NEED TO
ADD BURNET AND BLANCO COUNTIES TO WARNING BY AFTERNOON. LOWERED
HOURLY AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND EXTENDED WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Hmm, that's good news. I still think we swing and miss, but I'm clinging onto hope. If only it was building a bit more to the East, I'd say there was a chance.

Still, this was a surprise that not really anyone was expecting more than 72 or so hours out, so it's hard to be upset!

[Portastorm]

Hmm, that's good news. I still think we swing and miss, but I'm clinging onto hope. If only it was building a bit more to the East, I'd say there was a chance.

Still, this was a surprise that not really anyone was expecting more than 72 or so hours out, so it's hard to be upset!

Just goes to show how "out to lunch" the models are in this pattern ... even at 3-4 days out. Seems to me that the Canadian did best on this one. Last Thursday it was the most aggressive with the cold air pocket deep into west/west central Texas.

[iorange55]

..and so it begins

From Dallas/Fort Worth NWS

IT IS POSSIBLE THE DFW METRO AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE WACO METRO
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

[Ntxw]

Rock Springs has been under heavy precip/snow for awhile now. Looks intense, I wonder how much accumulation they've gotten? I bet easily 2-4

[Texas Snowman]

..and so it begins

From Dallas/Fort Worth NWS

IT IS POSSIBLE THE DFW METRO AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE WACO METRO
AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

They have very cautiously been stepping their way down into this.