TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[ROCK]

Ok, just now my house windows fogged up and got cooler outside. Was at 70F now temp is falling.......I wonder if I walk down the subdivsion I will run into a 10F drop...

[Bunkertor]

Will the Mavericks game be affected this night ?

[DallasTX]

deleted

[aggiecutter]

AFM, thanks for the explanation.

[JenBayles]

Reading the following paragraph on p. A8 of today's Houston Chronicle:

Trouble in Central Texas

Gov. Rick Perry activated 250 Texas National Guard troops Saturday night and authorized the use of 75 Humvees to help transportation officials and local authorities along the projected path of expected ice storms.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Rock the front is on the move southward again. EWG is correct about the movement.

[gboudx]

Will the Mavericks game bea affected this night ?

Unless things start to go downhill really quick, I doubt the game is postponed. I've seen where Mavs and Dallas Stars games have been played even as the bridges and overpasses were iced over. The crowd may not be as full as normal, but the Mavs will still win.

[ROCK]

Will the Mavericks game bea affected this night ?

Unless things start to go downhill really quick, I doubt the game is postponed. I've seen where Mavs and Dallas Stars games have been played even as the bridges and overpasses were iced over. The crowd may not be as full as normal, but the Mavs will still win.

yes win tonight so you can lose Tuesday......

[ROCK]

Hey Rock the front is on the move southward again. EWG is correct about the movement.

Yep, I walk outside I saw this big blue line move back over me.....

[gboudx]

We must play the Rockets on Tuesday. Aren't you guys currently seeded something like 6th?

What does "Wintry Mix" mean? Our forecast of 100% chance of freezing rain has been changed to 100% chance of Wintry Mix. I assume that regular rain is included in "Wintry Mix" because that's all we're getting right now. The temp continues to waffle from freezing to above freezing.

[Bunkertor]

Will the Mavericks game bea affected this night ?

Unless things start to go downhill really quick, I doubt the game is postponed. I've seen where Mavs and Dallas Stars games have been played even as the bridges and overpasses were iced over. The crowd may not be as full as normal, but the Mavs will still win.

yes win tonight so you can lose Tuesday......

Maybe. I will not watch, so staying up all night for sports or weather isn´t good for my health...

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, the local forecast for Dallas calls for a frontal passage,or whatever you want to call it, tonight. They are expecting wind gust up to 30mph, so whatever cold air is surging southward will be moving a long at a pretty good clip. My advice would be to keep an eye on the temps in Dallas. If they start dropping tonight, you know the cold air is on the way.

Dallas forecast for tonight:
onight: Periods of freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet, mainly before midnight. Low around 25. Windy, with a north wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.2 to 0.4 of an inch possible.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for posting the NWS lastest AFD Katdaddy. It is very detailed and it seems they are still onboard for a wintery mess.

Overall the Houston discussions so far today have been excellent IMO! They each have been very detailed, to the point and we even see some of the forecasters emotion worked in. Way to go Houston NWS!

[Bunkertor]

Will the Mavericks game bea affected this night ?

Unless things start to go downhill really quick, I doubt the game is postponed. I've seen where Mavs and Dallas Stars games have been played even as the bridges and overpasses were iced over. The crowd may not be as full as normal, but the Mavs will still win.

I hope so, because starting is for me at 1 am. Unfortunately the opponent ist not that attractiv

[gboudx]

Bunketor, Dirk fan? My kids proudly wear their Nowitski jersey.

[Bunkertor]

Bunketor, Dirk fan? My kids proudly wear their Nowitski jersey.

Hm, let´s say...of course, he must be the absolute superstar over there nealy in Barkleys league. I usually don´t change teams with the players, but my german comrad is in a good shape and the Mavericks have again improved in comparison to last season, so winning or loosing is not a question of Dirk´s condition any more. Good chances for the finals. It´s real fun and i can say " Yes i´m fan" i´m interested in NBA and NFL ever since. But my real passion is - what you might not understand - soccer.

[Johnny]

Man, it's still warming up here in my neck of the woods, now up to 50 degrees....and foggy out. Come on arctic air!!!

[southerngale]

Will the Mavericks game bea affected this night ?

Unless things start to go downhill really quick, I doubt the game is postponed. I've seen where Mavs and Dallas Stars games have been played even as the bridges and overpasses were iced over. The crowd may not be as full as normal, but the Mavs will still win.

Yeah, the Rockets have won last 9 of their last 10 games. If y'all would LOSE every once in a while, we could catch up!

PROBLEM 5: I`M GETTING BLISTERS ON MY FINGERS FROM SO MUCH TYPING
IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. HATS OFF AND MUCH RESPECT TO YOU
SECRETARIES AND ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANTS OUT THERE 47

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the real deal is heading down the week of the 22nd. I dont think temperatures are going to be an issue then.

ENSEMBLES(Morning Run):

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[wxman57]

At this point ... and maybe my question is best posed to Jeff, AFM, Wxman57, or wall_cloud ... how can NWS forecast offices reference a colder surge of air moving down south later today if they have literally thrown out most, if not all, model guidance? The model runs I looked at don't necessarily show it occuring today.

In Austin, we're going to need that surge if we ever see any wintry precip. Otherwise, temps are firmly in the mid 30s and the skeptic in me is starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another example of a winter event being advertised but never verified.

I don't know if your question has been addressed yet, so I'll answer it. It's a valid question, but there is an easy answer. Just because the GFS/NAM, and other models don't do a very good job with identifying the leading edge of a shallow Arctic airmass doesn't mean the whole model is bad. We're only ignoring the position of the leading edge of Arctic air across the Southern Plains. Aloft, the models are doing fine. Up north, fine. The second surge of Arctic air is already moving into northern Kansas. It's quite real and it's coming south at a good rate.

Just drew some freezing rain accumulation maps for Texas and had Austin & San Antonio in the 1/2 to 1 inch accumulation zone for Monday night through Wednesday morning. You won't see anything there today or early tomorrow morning, most likely, as the second surge of air that will plunge much of Texas below freezing won't reach the Gulf coast until after sunrise Monday.