Texas winter weather thread #2 - winter weather on Friday?

[aggiecutter]

AFM, glad to see you back. Just wondering what your thoughts are for December and the rest of the winter, particularly December.

Just noticed that the 12Z EURO has locked onto the cold air that the ENSEMBLES have been hinting about for the past 5 days in the long range.

12Z EURO Day 7:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[TexasStooge]

Temperatures are STILL 29*F in Irving, TX.

[GeneratorPower]

AFM we really missed you. It got rather kooky in your absence, as you probably saw.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Evening Houston AFD:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 010255
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
855 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OUT RAPIDLY ACROSS SE TX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES. THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL AFFECT OUR NE ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW PUSHES
SLOWLY EAST INTO MISSOURI. WINDS COULD STILL REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT
WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THE NPW WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 03Z. NO
CHANGES ANTICPATED FOR THE MARINE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO
THE CLEAR SKIES...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S ACROSS ALL OF SE TX. THE WIND WILL BE THE ONLY FACTOR
INHIBITING A TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS ARE STILL
GUSTY NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING THEM TO DROP TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY LATE
TONIGHT. EVEN FORECASTING ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF COOLING
OVERNIGHT WOULD EASILY BRING OUR NRN ZONES INTO THE MID 20S. WILL
LOWER MINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEEP AN URBAN HEAT ISLAND
EFFECT OVER HOUSTON. AREAS NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE COULD SEE 6 TO 8 HOURS BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. THE
CENTRAL ZONES INCLUDING THE OUTER SUBURBS OF HOUSTON COULD SEE 4
TO 6 HOURS BELOW FREEZING...WHILE A LIGHT FREEZE WILL OCCUR OVER
THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY OVER
METRO HOUSTON. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT HIT FREEZING YET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO RECORDS TONIGHT AT COLLEGE STATION
AND GALVESTON...WHILE TEMPS IN HOUSTON SHOULD STAY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS.

RECORD LOWS FRIDAY 12/1:
COLLEGE STATION: 25 IN 1979
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL: 26 IN 1979
GALVESTON: 33 IN 1876

Actual forecasted lows:

College Station = 26F
Huntsville = 26F
Conroe = 27F
The Woodlands = 29F
IAH = 31F
Downtown Houston = 33F
Sugar Land = 30F
Galveston = 35F

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, here is a new Houston HWO:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-011200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
925 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND A COLD...DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER
ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT.

OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON LINE...TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS TONIGHT. LOWEST READINGS OF 25 TO 28
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH...FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND METRO
HOUSTON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 3
TO 6 HOURS TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE OUTER SUBURBS OF METRO
HOUSTON. IN THESE AREAS...LOWEST READINGS OF 27 TO 30 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED.

OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST...A
LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH LOWEST READINGS OF 30 TO 32
DEGREES EXPECTED. A LIGHT FREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE METRO
HOUSTON AREA.

[double D]

It is supposed to get down to 24 in Austin tonight as that would break a record.

And in my neck of the woods it is forecasted to get down to 20 degrees. I'm glad I covered my pipes tonight. Btw, the wind has really calmed down and I think temperatures will start dropping like a rock.

[boca]

AFM I'm glad your back. Here in Florida particular S FL we are probably going on water restrictions, just heard that on the news. I hope some of that cold air makes down this way.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Welcome back AFM! The s2k ref is back!

[Extremeweatherguy]

CPC is forecasting a cooler than normal December for Texas:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... _small.gif

And a wetter than normal one:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... _small.gif

[Lindaloo]

Welcome back!

[Yankeegirl]

I am at 35.2 and stilllllll falling.... I have a headache, my son put on the fireplace and forgot to open the flu! So I am going to bed now... See ya in the morning!

[southerngale]

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport
Last Update on Nov 30, 11:53 pm CST


Light Snow

34°F
(1°C)


It's reported that 2 hours in a row. The sky is clear though.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBPT.html

[Brent]

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport
Last Update on Nov 30, 11:53 pm CST


Light Snow

34°F
(1°C)


It's reported that 2 hours in a row. The sky is clear though.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBPT.html

Maybe there's hope for here. LOL Clear skies with snow!

[TexasStooge]

According to the DFW Climatic summary, we only got a trace of Snow and .77 in of.....everything else. Oh well, it was good while it lasted.

[jasons2k]

Welcome back AFM!!!!!!!!!

----

My low this AM was 31F

[Portastorm]

It is good to see you back AFM ... the prodigal has come home!

----------------

We bottomed out this morning at 28 degrees in north Austin.

[Yankeegirl]

I got to 30.1 here for a low overnight... warming up nicely though, its now 38....

[double D]

In Fredericksburg, it got down to 23 this morning. The heater was working overtime this morning.

Is JB still calling for cold and winter weather before Dec. 10? I'm no expert by a long shot, but I just don't see it right now. The NWS offices around the state mention nothing about an upcoming cold blast. Most of them just say that we will be near normal or slighty below normal in the next seven days.

[JenBayles]

It was a 2-dog-night under the Bear Creek Dome. I slept with my face pressed into Maggie's butt - thank God she's not a farter! Chica draped herself on my legs and kept my feet warm - that one IS a farter.... We're all currently sitting in front of the fireplace and enjoying staying in for a change. Ain't dis da life?

[Portastorm]

In Fredericksburg, it got down to 23 this morning. The heater was working overtime this morning.

Is JB still calling for cold and winter weather before Dec. 10? I'm no expert by a long shot, but I just don't see it right now. The NWS offices around the state mention nothing about an upcoming cold blast. Most of them just say that we will be near normal or slighty below normal in the next seven days.

He is still saying "cold" but this morning in his discussion, he appeared to be hedging now on the "winter weather" part. He also continues to suggest we will see normal to slightly below normal by middle December ... but that the last 10 days of December into January, winter returns with a vigor.

Myself, while I see some reinforcement of the cold air every 3-4 days for the next 10 days ... I see nothing that would suggest wintry precip for anyone but maybe the panhandle of Texas. I'm making this evaluation after looking at the last several GFS runs and the Euro.