Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

I posted this in USA/Carrib weather but thought I would post it here to.

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Some tragic and very sad, sad, sad news to report tonight.

@FindTheTornado storm chaser Andy Gabrielson was killed by a wrong-way driver in an afternoon traffic accident in Oklahoma.

He was chasing in Texas yesterday and was featured on Dallas/Fort Worth's Channel 8 WFAA-TV just last night.

Condolences and prayers to Andy's family and friends.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/storm-ch ... 21544.html

[gboudx]

That's terrible to hear. RIP.

[Ntxw]

That's terrible news . May he rest in peace.

GFS is finally bridging the gap tonight via 0z on the cold and the next big system. It is the first run to do so. Larry Cosgrove made mention that the models are way under doing the storm. If the cold and system interact, we have a major winter storm on our hands for the southern plains, if not the gulf coast region.



I post this with extreme caution.

[Snowman67]

Euro is coldest, indicating temps way down into the MID 30s for southeast Texas in 9 days.

Mid 30s? Ah heck ...we can do better than that.

Admit it, you'd be uncomfortable on that nifty bike of yours in mid 30s. I'll see what the PWC mets can do about lowering that temperature some more.

Good news! New (12Z) Euro has our lows in the mid 50s next Saturday and mid 60s Sunday. No more mid 30s. Neither the 12Z Euro nor the 12Z GFS has temps in east Texas anywhere close to the mid 30s over the next 15 days.

Still raining in SW Houston. Now at 12.5" for the year. Last year, it took all the way to mid October to reach 12.5".

But don't you always tell us not to trust the models that far out?

[wxman57]

But don't you always tell us not to trust the models that far out?

I'd definitely not trust any model predicting a major pattern change 2 weeks out as they've all, for the most part, been doing so over the past 4-6 weeks, and they've all been wrong as far as weather here in TX. But the pattern does appear to be slowly evolving into one which will at least bring some below-normal temps to the Great Lakes and the Northeast U.S. But they're forecasting temps in Alaska and western Canada to rise to 20-30F above normal later this week, so there may not be much really cold air available to move south into the U.S. The GFS is predicting air 15-25F below normal into Texas later this week, but sub-freezing temps only in western and northern parts of the state.

[Rgv20]

This is for Porta! Nothing to see here tho its only the 6zGFS.....

[Ntxw]

But don't you always tell us not to trust the models that far out?

I'd definitely not trust any model predicting a major pattern change 2 weeks out as they've all, for the most part, been doing so over the past 4-6 weeks, and they've all been wrong as far as weather here in TX. But the pattern does appear to be slowly evolving into one which will at least bring some below-normal temps to the Great Lakes and the Northeast U.S. But they're forecasting temps in Alaska and western Canada to rise to 20-30F above normal later this week, so there may not be much really cold air available to move south into the U.S. The GFS is predicting air 15-25F below normal into Texas later this week, but sub-freezing temps only in western and northern parts of the state.

Great evaluation wxman! I will have to add there is a big difference in the pattern, the pacific jet is no longer zonal and flooding us with hot air! So for at least the next two weeks I believe it is unlikely Houston will see 80+ readings but rather cloudy, cool and often damp bike rides

[Portastorm]

Rgv20, I'll go out today to Home Depot to get that snowblower!

Oh, and let me take this opportunity to wish the King of Warm Mongerers a Happy Weatherperson Day! Raising a glass of Grey Goose in your honor, wxman57!

[hriverajr]

Have some ice falling out of the sky here in Del Rio, not sure whether to classify as hail or sleet.. but I think sleet..

[Portastorm]

Have some ice falling out of the sky here in Del Rio, not sure whether to classify as hail or sleet.. but I think sleet..

Really? Valid enough that I should report it to NWS EWX? I don't see anything from them indicating sleet in Del Rio but I'm happy to report.

[Portastorm]

Still lots of model volatility. While the 6z GFS showed some light snow in central and west central Texas late this coming week, the 12z GFS took it away. Meanwhile, the 12z Canadian (CMC) looks much colder for this coming weekend than its 0z run.

Models are really struggling right now. I don't think I trust any of them beyond 72 hours at this point.

[hriverajr]

Well it lasted all of 15 min hehe..
oh by the way this is a nice link for an excellent excel spreadsheet "MOS data, bufkit data, and NWS forecast all in one place, in an easy to read format" found it on American Weather.

http://www.txtornado.net/Worksheet.html

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Rgv20, I'll go out today to Home Depot to get that snowblower!

Oh, and let me take this opportunity to wish the King of Warm Mongerers a Happy Weatherperson Day! Raising a glass of Grey Goose in your honor, wxman57!

Drink all you want Porta...they will make more!!! Woo Hoo to upper 40's/low 50's today. My run of a 7:30 pace for 7 miles will LOVE IT!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Tweets of interest from Joe B this morning and last night:

@BigJoeBastardi - "Cross polar, split flow and phases 8 thru 2 MJO like facing wrestling line up with @cwcunningham1@caelsanderson @lessigman .Trouble."

@BigJoeBastardi - "Major Disturbance in the Force!!! SOI at lowest dailies since La Nina began ( -15) MJO swinging toward US cold pattern!"

@BigJoeBastardi - "I am more impressed than models for snow threat from Texas to New England Wed into Thur, then east on weekend."

@BigJoeBastardi - "Major stratwarm event set that off.. US cold came a few weeks later ( mid Jan 85-Feb) and cold may take over Feb into March here too."

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF came in on the cool side with regards to 850mb Temperatures for the upcoming weekend.....Cant get caught up on the model runs as they have been struggling as of late.

12zECMWF valid for Saturday


12zECMWF valid for Sunday



EDIT:12zGFS Ensembles Mean 2m Temperature Anomalies for Saturday looks to be below normal for the majority of the State. Four Ensemble Members show the possibility of up to 21F+ below normal temperatures...Interesting days ahead

[Portastorm]

You beat to me it, Rgv! Yeah, the Euro like the others has been back and forth ... back and forth. The 12z run brings the Polar high straight south into the Southern Plains. The 0z had a more northwest-southeast trajectory.

I'm trying to put aside my -removed- self here when I say that, really, it's a model crapshoot beyond 72 hours at the moment. We *could* see some big surprises for late this coming week. It really wouldn't surprise me to see some sort of frozen precip threat for portions of Texas. The eastern Pacific is responding to the MJO tropical forcing now and some sort of ridge is going to poke up on the west coast with a major trough in the East.

Admittedly, it could all go to the north and east of us and we only get a glancing blow (or maybe even hardly anything). At the same time, a much colder scenario for next weekend wouldn't surprise me either. If there was ever a time this "winter" season to be up on the model runs, I think this coming week is that time.

Just my two pesos.

[Rgv20]

How would I like for this particular 12GFS Ensemble Member to verify!!

Forecast Valid for Friday Evening


Forecast Valid for Saturday Morning

[orangeblood]

We need the system digging into Baja over the next few days to phase with the northern branch later this week. That should set the table for a major winter storm from the southern plains into the mid-Atlantic next weekend. GFS ensembles and Canadian are seeing it, Euro - not quite yet

[somethingfunny]

Ensemble Member #8 is my favorite GFS ensemble member. Member #8 for President!

[Ntxw]

I would not put weight into the euro at all lately. It has been abysmal for the MJO it's still trying to keep it in phase 6 while today it is already in 7. GFS though not accurate by any means, has been more consistent in synoptics recently. Phase or no phase, I think we will have enough energy to ring out some wintry precip in Texas later in the week. If the two vorticities merge, then we can look out for a major storm as JB has mentioned.