Texas Winter 2023-2024

[snowballzzz]

Looks like central OKlahoma will get little to no snow around the OKC area.

Kind of sucks, if it's going to be frigid, give me snow.

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

What was looking like possibly 8 or more inches in Tulsa is now looking like 1-3 if we are lucky.

[Brent]

Looks like central OKlahoma will get little to no snow around the OKC area.

Kind of sucks, if it's going to be frigid, give me snow.

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

What was looking like possibly 8 or more inches in Tulsa is now looking like 1-3 if we are lucky.

I'm just in shock. Why does it not snow here for real anymore? I mean last winter was a disgrace too

Last time I saw more than an inch and a half is nearly 2 years ago

[Portastorm]

Interesting developments today as they regard my part of the state (Austin area) ... frontal timing sped up to now being late Saturday evening. Increasing likelihood of up to .10" of ice accumulations by Monday morning. I've seen 0.08" create all kinds of trouble on bridges and overpasses here, so 0.10" would be enough to create havoc. Looking at 60+ hours of temps below freezing which will strain infrastructure. Hard freezes and dangerous wind chills for multiple days. Yeah ... right now this one looks formidable.

Won't surprise me either to see EWX issue some winter weather products this coming weekend.

[kirium]

Looks like central OKlahoma will get little to no snow around the OKC area.

Kind of sucks, if it's going to be frigid, give me snow.

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

The 18z NAM shows it creeping back a bit towards OKC but still not like it was before.

Honestly, we only have 1 kid at home who is 16. But I'm still a kid when it comes to snow especially when I know there's going to be no ice. Plus my 4 dogs absolutely love the snow.

[kirium]

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

What was looking like possibly 8 or more inches in Tulsa is now looking like 1-3 if we are lucky.

I'm just in shock. Why does it not snow here for real anymore? I mean last winter was a disgrace too

Last time I saw more than an inch and a half is nearly 2 years ago

It appears Tulsa will still get snow.

Last time we got legit snow here in Edmond was 21. And of course it dumped like crazy.

[Brent]

What was looking like possibly 8 or more inches in Tulsa is now looking like 1-3 if we are lucky.

I'm just in shock. Why does it not snow here for real anymore? I mean last winter was a disgrace too

Last time I saw more than an inch and a half is nearly 2 years ago

It appears Tulsa will still get snow.

Last time we got legit snow here in Edmond was 21. And of course it dumped like crazy.

It's just been bust after bust here all winter and last January

[Texas Snow]

NWS for N Dallas has now slightly raised the chances of Freezing Rain while lowering snow (but expanding duration time frame) I know this will evolve and change but the roller coaster continues.

Sunday
A slight chance of freezing rain after 3pm. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 26. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday Night
A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 19. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

M.L.King Day
A slight chance of snow and freezing rain before noon. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 24. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.



Here is some explanation from their AFD

Winter Precipitation Potential and Type: Chances for precipitation
have been raised to 30-50 percent for Sunday night through Monday
morning, and as confidence increases, the chances may continue to
rise. With the cold air already in place Sunday, the development of
any light precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening would most
likely fall as freezing rain, or just rain in our far southeastern
counties where surface temperatures may still be close to
freezing. Coverage will likely initially be scattered, so not
everyone will receive freezing rain or rain Sunday afternoon and
evening. Initially, the precipitation will be fighting dry air in
the near-surface cold air so any precipitation should be fairly
light. However, a glaze of ice will be possible as temperatures
will be well below freezing. As isentropic lift continues into
the night and larger scale lift increases, the best potential for
winter precipitation will be overnight into Monday morning, and
forecast soundings show better moisture in the lower levels as
top-down seeding continues. Profile soundings north of Highway
380/I-30 show better potential for all snow overnight into Monday
morning while the rest of North Texas may experience a wintry mix
at times. Across Central Texas, all freezing rain is expected,
and this is where our highest totals for ice will most likely
occur. Some light sleet could also occur anywhere across our
coverage area but have left the mention of sleet out as snow and
freezing rain appear to be the most dominant precipitation types.

Accumulations: Highest potential for snow accumulations will be
along and north of the Highway 380/I-30 corridor. Snow totals range
from 0.5-2.0" of snow with the highest totals in our far
northeast around Lamar and Fannin Counties. Ice accumulations
will range from 0.01" near the Red River to 0.10" across parts of
Central Texas. These values would meet Winter Weather Advisory
criteria, and there is a low (<10%) chance ice totals could be
higher in parts of Central Texas. For the DFW Metroplex, ice
totals are around 0.05". For Waco and Killeen, totals range from
0.05-0.10".

[txtwister78]

Interesting developments today as they regard my part of the state (Austin area) ... frontal timing sped up to now being late Saturday evening. Increasing likelihood of up to .10" of ice accumulations by Monday morning. I've seen 0.08" create all kinds of trouble on bridges and overpasses here, so 0.10" would be enough to create havoc. Looking at 60+ hours of temps below freezing which will strain infrastructure. Hard freezes and dangerous wind chills for multiple days. Yeah ... right now this one looks formidable.

Won't surprise me either to see EWX issue some winter weather products this coming weekend.

Agreed same goes for SA with all the elevated bridges and overpasses. Just saw their AFD and they ramped things up a bit for both SAT/AUS corridor.

[losf1981]

Just shows how everything has to line up perfectly to get snow even in Oklahoma. I’m bummed it’s looking like we are going to miss out totally in OKC.

What was looking like possibly 8 or more inches in Tulsa is now looking like 1-3 if we are lucky.

I'm just in shock. Why does it not snow here for real anymore? I mean last winter was a disgrace too

Last time I saw more than an inch and a half is nearly 2 years ago

man, be grateful for what wintry weather precip you get.

[Edwards Limestone]

[wxman57]

Models all in for 12Z. Only significant change I see is the EC ensembles a good bit warmer (less cold) for Wednesday here. Note that 18Z Monday spike in the EC and its ensembles. Probably an error.
It's interesting that there is better model agreement on Wednesday than Tuesday. I think the issue is the very shallow nature of the cold air Sun/Mon. The real push of colder air comes Monday afternoon/evening, as the upper trof passes (and precip ends). How deep will the cold air be Sun/Mon? How much may it modify? That's why models are so far apart then. Looks like some light rain around SE TX on Monday. Winter precip seems unlikely here. Again, note that afternoon highs are not plotted, just 12pm and 6pm. Temps may be 2-4F higher at 3pm.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan12HOU.JPG

I just need enough moisture to freeze Monday night and cancel school on Tuesday... and, I guess Wednesday would be too greedy.

No school because of a little cold weather??!! When I was a kid, we had to walk 10 miles to school uphill both ways in the snow.

[Gotwood]

Canadian model is such a big outlier for the cold right now you can pretty much throw it away. Same in regards to the Euro as it’s likely too warm. Crazy that we are so close to the front being here and there is still no consensus on what will happen.

[wxman57]

Can someone please post the NAM ice/sleet maps that show Louisiana? That only shows the western edge and it looks like it is showing some ice/sleet. Curious if that extends further east in Louisiana or not?

Here you go. Enjoy being cold and wet. Map includes sleet and freezing rain.

[wxman57]

Canadian model is such a big outlier for the cold right now you can pretty much throw it away. Same in regards to the Euro as it’s likely too warm. Crazy that we are so close to the front being here and there is still no consensus on what will happen.

That's not really THE front. The real surge moves south on Monday behind the upper-level trof. Just a taste of cold air this weekend.

[BigB0882]

Can someone please post the NAM ice/sleet maps that show Louisiana? That only shows the western edge and it looks like it is showing some ice/sleet. Curious if that extends further east in Louisiana or not?

Here you go. Enjoy being cold and wet. Map includes sleet and freezing rain.

http://wxman57.com/images/18ZNAMIce.JPG

Thank you for that but I would prefer just a taste of winter without that much ice. I’m hoping the NAM is just overdoing something as it often does.

[JDawg512]

Interesting developments today as they regard my part of the state (Austin area) ... frontal timing sped up to now being late Saturday evening. Increasing likelihood of up to .10" of ice accumulations by Monday morning. I've seen 0.08" create all kinds of trouble on bridges and overpasses here, so 0.10" would be enough to create havoc. Looking at 60+ hours of temps below freezing which will strain infrastructure. Hard freezes and dangerous wind chills for multiple days. Yeah ... right now this one looks formidable.

Won't surprise me either to see EWX issue some winter weather products this coming weekend.

Not happy about this but it is what it is. Maybe this will change and won't have any frozen precipitation but either way, I'm preparing.

[mmmmsnouts]

Still think the forecast of either freezing rain or snow is incoherent. You can’t skip past sleet, and besides it might be too cold for freezing rain anyway.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro is pretty juiced up (relatively speaking) from the DFW/Waco line NE into Southern Arkansas.

[bubba hotep]

Still think the forecast of either freezing rain or snow is incoherent. You can’t skip past sleet, and besides it might be too cold for freezing rain anyway.

It's never too cold for freezing rain. Despite the surface temp, your prceip type is determined by the columns temp profile.

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro is pretty juiced up (relatively speaking) from the DFW/Waco line NE into Southern Arkansas.

18z Euro has most of this south of I20 as freezing rain or sleet.