Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

12Z Ensemble mean snowfall, pretty remarkable theme coming together

EPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736553600-3e8zpucl4Pc.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736672400-cfjxc2R5Wi0.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735992000/1736672400-m6nglwMfGCk.png

CPC 8-14 day heavy snow risk from way earlier. If verified they would've nailed it.

[Stratton23]

I dont care about accumulation at this point, is there any slimmer of hope of at least seeing a sleet pellet or snow flake here in Se texas? Im about 40 miles to the west of houston in Katy

[Ntxw]

I dont care about accumulation at this point, is there any slimmer of hope of at least seeing a sleet pellet or snow flake here in Se texas? Im about 40 miles to the west of houston in Katy

Unfortunately the more amped the solution, the more northwest it will go. You'll get more rain though ~3". ICON would make it a bit interesting if it is able to stay cold longer.

[jasons2k]

That's one heckuva trough. The Metroplex may get a decent snowstorm out of this. Looking more like a cold rain down here outside of H-Town though. Operational runs still can't be trusted on this, but there is going to be a whole mixed bag of rain, sleet, snow, thundersleet, etc. across Central into North Texas. The ice threat needs to be watched along the transition zone, wherever that ultimately sets up. TxDot has their hands full this week.

[Ralph's Weather]

Us from Austin to Tyler are in an interesting transition zone. There will be a sharp cutoff from just a mix to very heavy snow. At least as of right now there is not a significant ice band in between since there is no warm nose.

[jasons2k]

Us from Austin to Tyler are in an interesting transition zone. There will be a sharp cutoff from just a mix to very heavy snow. At least as of right now there is not a significant ice band in between since there is no warm nose.

I'm concerned we'll start to see a warm nose as we get closer to the event. I would agree that as of right now there isn't a significant ice threat, but I think it's something worth watching. I've just seen the evil warm nose make a "surprise visit" with setups like this one....doesn't surprise me anymore

[Stratton23]

Man those ensembles are looking very good late month across the US, hoping we get another shot at cashing in down the road if we dont get anything from this system

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Us from Austin to Tyler are in an interesting transition zone. There will be a sharp cutoff from just a mix to very heavy snow. At least as of right now there is not a significant ice band in between since there is no warm nose.

I'm concerned we'll start to see a warm nose as we get closer to the event. I would agree that as of right now there isn't a significant ice threat, but I think it's something worth watching. I've just seen the evil warm nose make a "surprise visit" with setups like this one....doesn't surprise me anymore

That’s fair, but I still see a heavy transition zone and tend to think it will be farther East than we think. I may be in it or just a cold 34 and rain.

[txtwister78]

ICON and to a lesser degree CMC/CMC ENS have probably been the most consistent with temps and moisture. Euro has really flipped as of late. GFS/GEFS is sort of in the middle trying to get a better handle.

Still a lot to watch as this is 4 days out and so we could still see some adjustments, but we can now point to trends for increased winter weather obviously across a good portion of the state.

[Wthrfan]

NWS has OKC with a high of 41 on Friday. If that’s anywhere close to being accurate, not sure how my Texas friends and relatives are going to get any frozen precipitation out of this thing.

[Quixotic]

4 days is pretty close considering all the models coming closer together.

[Quixotic]

Somebody let ERCOT know

[Sambucol2024]

Somebody let ERCOT know

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

[Quixotic]

Somebody let ERCOT know

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

It was great when I woke up in the middle of the night strangling because my cpap shut off.

[Sambucol2024]

Somebody let ERCOT know

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

It was great when I woke up in the middle of the night strangling because my cpap shut off.

Not a fun thing. Hopefully, that won’t happen again.

[rwfromkansas]

Wichita and my hometown in a blizzard warning now. That’s really rare.

[Brent]

Wichita and my hometown in a blizzard warning now. That’s really rare.

3 counties away here. This is surreal

This could be the biggest snowstorm I've ever seen

[Gotwood]

Weather channel app showing 1-3 inches of snow for my area now Thursday night.

[txtwister78]

Somebody let ERCOT know

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

I honestly don't see a huge risk for that with temps being as warm as they will be and this looking more like a snow event as opposed to an ice storm situation but never hurts to prepare

Edit: I get the 2021 event still has people on edge and rightfully so, but thankfully not every event is going to end up being anywhere near what that was. Temps most of next week won't even be in the same ballpark to what that period brought in terms of frigid/historic cold across the entire state leading up to the widespread snow and ice that we experienced then.

[Sambucol2024]

Somebody let ERCOT know

Whether or not some areas of Texas get wintry precipitation, there will be rolling blackouts throughout the state most likely. So, prepare for that.

I honestly don't see a huge risk for that with temps being as warm as they will be and this looking more like a snow event as opposed to an ice storm situation but never hurts to prepare

Edit: I get the 2021 event still has people on edge and rightfully so, but thankfully not every event is going to end up being anywhere near what that was. Temps most of next week won't even be in the same ballpark to what that period brought in terms of frigid/historic cold across the entire state leading up to the widespread snow and ice that we experienced then.

Better to be prepared and not need it than to be unprepared and in need. Hopefully, ERCOT has beefed up its amount of power, and all will be well. But, we aren’t taking chances and are ready until winter has passed.