Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

Depends on your perspective. I think a lot of us these days get excited about rainfall. And that looks like a good bet this weekend for a lot of us ... maybe several inches of rainfall if the convective parameters play out. That's something worth getting excited about?! But in terms of winter/wintry weather? Nope, I don't see anything between here and Christmas other than a Canadian type cold front this coming weekend. It will drop us below normal for temps but don't look for a ice/sleet/snow storm.

Winter/wintry weather fans here should not be too discouraged. Our best typical winter months lie ahead of us. I always saw anything that happened in late November or December as "gravy."

I'll try and offer a few posts soon on why the PWC thinks there is still LOTS of winter ahead of us.

[TheProfessor]

Does anyone see anything that could lead to a possible miniature tornado out break this weekend in North Texas? Could the low pressure intersect with the southern jet stream to cause the wind shear necessary to spawn tornadoes?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Our wheelhouse for "historic" winter storms is February.

[Red Raider fan]

Ok I live here in Schertz Tx., just south of New Braunfels. I just heard on a radio station I was listening to the DJ said that this week was pretty much going to be nice until the weekend when we get rain. But then she said that the week of Christmas was going to get intresting because it was going to get really really cold on christmas. Can anyone shed some light on this since the talk so far has been the models pulling back on the arctic blast that the models first saw.

[Red Raider fan]

Maybe the reason for the blackout here on the thread was because the computers were freaking out on the amount of cold air coming down by Christamas? wishful thinking maybe.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I would keep an eye on the Friday afternoon into late Saturday time frame. There are growing indications that the Baja upper low crossing Northern Mexico and finally approaching Texas on Saturday may have a bit of negative tilt suggesting a potential severe weather episode may develop across portions of Central/N/SE Texas and points NE. It also appears that there is growing potential for lee side cyclogenesis or a strong surface low pressure system developing near the Panhandle and heading ENE during the weekend. We have transitioned from discussing a potential Arctic Outbreak to that of a potential severe weather event. That is certainly a swing and very typical of our weather extremes in Texas during December.

I'd love just to get lots of rain to fill up the lakes and wash all the sand and dust off the roads from the ice storm

[Ntxw]

Perhaps I can teach others how to enjoy heat and hate the cold?

It must be working ... even I'm enjoying today's weather, the sunshine, and warmer temperatures.

Me too! A lot of cabin fever and vitamin C depletion this month. I say we declare an armistice.

[gpsnowman]

Never!!! He has his fun the majority of the year. We must have ours!! Back to weather. Oh well no cold this time. It is what it is. Not the first time the models called for record breaking cold only to have it vanish. Are the teleconnetions still in our favor? I was wondering about the Pacific near Alaska. Are those waters still near record warmth and could it influence our weather down the road? Still a long way to go for weather fun. I'll hang up and listen

[gpsnowman]

Finally we are back in business! No more outages I hope. Back to winter.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like the cap may be too strong for surface based storms to develop as the Euro and Canadian have slowed the cut off upper low a bit and SW flow aloft keeps the cap large and strong across Central and SE Texas via the GFS, but the Euro/Canadian suggest a bit more negative tilt and better dynamics for severe weather and are much 'wetter' and even suggest training showers/storms across Central Texas as a surface low develops. Further N in the cold sector, icy conditions with freezing rain look likely across portions of the Panhandle and Oklahoma and locations further NE. Warm sector heavy training rains may be possible across Arkansas/Tennessee and on E where severe storms have a better chance to develop extending into the SE Region. Another freeze may be possible early next week as well. Late Christmas Day looks changeable as yet another SW upper low approaches from our W and a secondary re enforcing shot of 'colder air' drops S into the Southern Plains on Christmas Eve. It may take another day or two to sort out any severe weather potential for Texas as the short wave that will develop into a robust upper low across Southern California/Baja late Thursday into Friday is further sampled by the RAOB network.

The longer range beyond Christmas Day looks very unsettled with several disturbance crossing our Region and perhaps much colder air drops S from Canada into the Inter Mountain West and Plains and a strong storm system ejects out of Mexico with a noisy sub tropical jet. We will see.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...TX...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SAT/D4...
THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING THE LOCATION OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY ON SAT/D4 AS THE SWRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH EJECTS
RAPIDLY NEWD ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/WAVE ALONG THE
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL EXIST WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND N OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EARLY ON SAT/D4...FROM WRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO SERN MO...WHERE STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL EXIST
COURTESY OF A 60 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. RAPID COOLING ALOFT...A
VEER/BACK SIGNAL IN THE WIND PROFILE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...A
RATHER MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS A SEMI-CAPPED WARM
SECTOR SUGGEST THAT A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS WILL BE LIKELY...CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT...OR THE NRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

...SUN/D5 AND BEYOND...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY/LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOSS OF AMPLITUDE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WITH
ONGOING STORMS SHOULD TRAIL APPROXIMATELY FROM IND/OH SWWD ACROSS
TN/AL/MS WITH SOME ONGOING THREAT. GIVEN TIMING ISSUES AS WELL AS
THE LOSS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE N...WILL DEFER ANY SEVERE
AREAS TO LATER OUTLOOKS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A FEW TORNADOES WOULD BE ACROSS
ERN MS/AL/GA AND TN IN PROXIMITY TO THE MOST ROBUST MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH LINEAR STORM MODE MOST LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 12/18/2013

[CaptinCrunch]

A CHILLY MONDAY WILL START THE HOLIDAY WEEK...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

[texas1836]

A CHILLY MONDAY WILL START THE HOLIDAY WEEK...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

I'd rather it be sunny with white snow covering the ground or have the typical sunny with brown grass covering the ground.

[wxman57]

Time to crank up the heat this week! Maybe I can get temps up near 80 in Houston by Friday!

Unfortunately, long-range models still indicate a pattern that could bring very cold air down to Texas this winter, and I think at least north TX (DFW area) is going to be in for some snow in Jan/Feb.

My grass remains nice and green. Just mowed and edged last Sunday. One more mowing when the oak tree loses the other half of its leaves then I'll have to wait until March to get to mow again.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose has an interesting last paragraph in yesterday's LCRA report. Not sure what he is looking at(?).

"Some of today’s long-range solutions are indicating an area of very cold air will begin spreading south across the Plains states late next week. Should these solutions be correct, much colder air will arrive in Central Texas around the 28th and continue into the days leading up to New Years. Stay tuned for more details about this over the next couple of days."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a Del Rio/Austin (Hill Country) Texarkana track of the surface low on Saturday and now has a more of a negative tilt ~vs~ an totally open wave at 500mb. Areas along that surface low track will be where the best dynamics and possible erosion of the cap should take place. It does appear there is a sufficient jet streak that may assist breaking the cap. As always, timing and the eventual track will determine where the severe potential will increase.

[orangeblood]

Bob Rose has an interesting last paragraph in yesterday's LCRA report. Not sure what he is looking at(?).

"Some of today’s long-range solutions are indicating an area of very cold air will begin spreading south across the Plains states late next week. Should these solutions be correct, much colder air will arrive in Central Texas around the 28th and continue into the days leading up to New Years. Stay tuned for more details about this over the next couple of days."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

I believe he's referring to the Euro Control extended model, which shows a 500mb negative anomaly of some 4 standards deviations below normal transversing the state new years eve. BUT that model has been worthless past 192 hours

Another active pattern will continue with potential for very low heights across Texas IF we can get the EPO negative again and especially if the PNA pops positive, which some models are trending towards.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Perhaps I can teach others how to enjoy heat and hate the cold?

I'm one of the extreme weather lovers, if it has to be below 70 then give me 30 and snow. Otherwise don't waste my time. Especially in the 35-55 range. For me that's a complete waste of atmosphere LoL. I don't complain at 100 plus either.

[dhweather]

Bob Rose has an interesting last paragraph in yesterday's LCRA report. Not sure what he is looking at(?).

"Some of today’s long-range solutions are indicating an area of very cold air will begin spreading south across the Plains states late next week. Should these solutions be correct, much colder air will arrive in Central Texas around the 28th and continue into the days leading up to New Years. Stay tuned for more details about this over the next couple of days."

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

I'm not seeing it in the GFS or ECMWF (which only goes through next Saturday).


And Joe B just tweeted this:

[vbhoutex]

Larry Cosgrove pretty much agrees Mr. Rose based on last thing I saw from him on FB.

[orangeblood]

GFS compared to Euro/Canadian is vastly different after 120 hours. Someone is going to get burned on their Christmas forecast! Stay tuned