Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Pretty good bet that christmas is going to be above normal for many, this persistent + PNA is going no where, and in fact it may actually get stronger heading into christmas and new years week, absolutely depressing

As long as I get some rain, I’m good. Next winter looks better for cold.

[starsfan65]

Pretty good bet that christmas is going to be above normal for many, this persistent + PNA is going no where, and in fact it may actually get stronger heading into christmas and new years week, absolutely depressing

It could be a warm Christmas?

[rwfromkansas]

A bummer around here. Lol

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 Im thinking so, im starting to think this so called talk about a pattern change at the end of the month is just hype, the EPS guidance shows the PNA staying pretty positive even into the beginning of january, i just dont see much in the guidance that suggests a major pattern shift
Im not saying winter is over, but I definitely dont see old man winter making an appearance any time remotely soon lol

[Ntxw]

starsfan65 Im thinking so, im starting to think this so called talk about a pattern change at the end of the month is just hype, the EPS guidance shows the PNA staying pretty positive even into the beginning of january, i just dont see much in the guidance that suggests a major pattern shift

There is just a lack of cold air over North America (outside of AK.) 500mb can look good at times but with no surface cold, it's just normal at best.

There is always a fear when you get >2.0C Nino around here. While this is strong and not Super, there's always that caveat the more you crank the Nino the more you lack cold.

[starsfan65]

starsfan65 Im thinking so, im starting to think this so called talk about a pattern change at the end of the month is just hype, the EPS guidance shows the PNA staying pretty positive even into the beginning of january, i just dont see much in the guidance that suggests a major pattern shift
Im not saying winter is over, but I definitely dont see old man winter making an appearance any time remotely soon lol

after the New Year's maybe?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This pattern is terrible. Sheesh.

[Brent]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

[Stratton23]

starsfan65 Maybe, but until the PNA goes neutral/ positive and the MJO moves into a more favorable cold phase, expect more of the same, pacific air flooding the US

[Cpv17]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

I never really saw too much hype for cold temps and snow. I saw hype for rain and near average to slightly below average temperatures cuz of the added rain and cloud cover but so far not even the rain is verifying.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 with the EPS actually trending more positive with the PNA, almost approaches sigma 3 at the end of december, that doesn’t make me very optimistic about rain chances either

[Ntxw]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

Typical El Nino climo is mild December, and it's not really as hot as the past couple of years. But I agree with cpv the dry outcomes have been unnerving, -pdo just sucks in that aspect. The amazing years like 1963, 2009 buckle these December trends with some kind of blast/snowstorm though. We're fighting El Nino climo and warming background state in Decembers.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 with the EPS actually trending more positive with the PNA, almost approaches sigma 3 at the end of december, that doesn’t make me very optimistic about rain chances either

Rain chances are actually looking pretty good over the next couple weeks. Best I’ve seen in a long while for my area.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cpv17 with the EPS actually trending more positive with the PNA, almost approaches sigma 3 at the end of december, that doesn’t make me very optimistic about rain chances either

Rain chances are actually looking pretty good over the next couple weeks. Best I’ve seen in a long while for my area.

Same here’s.

My Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecast could be far worse.

Mid 40s to mid 60s. Id like it 10-20 degrees colder, but it’s better than 75 and butthole humidity.

[bubba hotep]

Hugging the Euro all-day long...

[Iceresistance]

Secondary peak is crazier than the primary peak!


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Sin3Z.png

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

Year after year? Yeah idk either.

[Iceresistance]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

Year after year? Yeah idk either.

Teleconnections are now showing to be a +AO/+NAO/+PNA in a week or so.

Torch disaster incoming...

[bubba hotep]

I'm never believing winter hype again if this year sucks again. I mean how can everyone be so wrong

Year after year? Yeah idk either.

Teleconnections are now showing to be a +AO/+NAO/+PNA in a week or so.

Torch disaster incoming...

Looks like 60's in DFW for Christmas

However, it could be worse, the Northern Plains will straight torching

[Stratton23]

Yeah its about to get worse, those are not the teleconnections you want to see lining up, I could see highs in the 70’s maybe even near 80 with this kind of a pattern, so frustrating