Texas Winter 2024-2025

[txtwister78]

Would like to see more of a SE shift toward Austin in the models. Even the ICON continues to move the snow line NW away from Austin. Hopefully still a chance for those of us in the surrounding Austin area.

Going to be borderline down across SC TX. ICON and CMC probably the best bet in terms of colder models. Don't see temps dropping all that much from there and in fact risk is still high that they could go warmer and this ends up being mostly rain. Just not enough arctic air in place for this event. This will be an elevation type event for most with perhaps enough cold around DFW for a few inches if the ICON and CMC are accurate.

[bubba hotep]

Have your fun Tx. While I here in SE Louisiana

SE Louisiana is a tough place for winter weather!

[Brent]

Have your fun Tx. While I here in SE Louisiana

I feel ya but hey Tulsa is still gonna be lucky to see much with their climo unless it shifts way north

[Ntxw]

GFS is setting up for a long duration QPF event with waves of precip. Might be another big run.

[cajungal]

Have your fun Tx. While I here in SE Louisiana

I feel ya but hey Tulsa is still gonna be lucky to see much with their climo unless it shifts way north

But you just took a road trip to Kansas City. I know it isn’t the same as watching from your own backyard. I hope you don’t have work on Monday of work remotely because you will be trapped there at least a week.

[cajungal]

Have your fun Tx. While I here in SE Louisiana

I feel ya but hey Tulsa is still gonna be lucky to see much with their climo unless it shifts way north

But you just took a road trip to Kansas City. I know it isn’t the same as watching from your own backyard. I hope you don’t have work on Monday or work remotely because you will be trapped there at least a week.

[iorange55]

Would like to see more of a SE shift toward Austin in the models. Even the ICON continues to move the snow line NW away from Austin. Hopefully still a chance for those of us in the surrounding Austin area.

Going to be borderline down across SC TX. ICON and CMC probably the best bet in terms of colder models. Don't see temps dropping all that much from there and in fact risk is still high that they could go warmer and this ends up being mostly rain. Just not enough arctic air in place for this event. This will be an elevation type event for most with perhaps enough cold around DFW for a few inches if the ICON and CMC are accurate.

Not sure you can confidently say this will be an elevation type event yet. Still far enough out where temps could fluctuate a few degrees, especially if cold air is pulled down with the storm.

[Ntxw]

More importantly it's trending with a little more deeper cold above.

[cajungal]

Have your fun Tx. While I here in SE Louisiana

SE Louisiana is a tough place for winter weather!

Sometimes I want to move but feel trapped here with elderly parents I don’t want to leave and 10 year old with severe autism. His waiver for his services are only for Louisiana and other states have huge waiting lists.

[Ntxw]

Temps still marginal on GFS in North and Northeast Texas. It's not as wet for West Texas as ICON. Verbatim would be waves of qpf beginning Weds night and going through Fri morning depending on locale.

It tries for trowal feature in east Texas Friday.

[txtwister78]

Still too much warm air advection from 12z GFS. Has dews in the mid 30's by Thursday afternoon across a good portion of the state with the exception of West Texas into Panhandle. Need it to be a little faster in its progression. Surface temps several degrees warmer than the ICON with the exception of the Hill Country where it sees a little precip/more cloud cover earlier on Wednesday than the 6z had.

42 degrees in Dallas for a high on Wed while 37 in San Antonio says all you need to know about lack of arctic air so yeah really going to need this system to be colder at the upper levels to deliver.

[wxman22]

12Z GFS and ICON

[Ntxw]

CMC like some of the other models brings an impulse that produces snow in the Panhandle and western areas of N TX. Got to watch this feature as it may bring some interest Tuesday. Temps are in the low to mid 20s during this period.

[gpsnowman]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

[Ntxw]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

It's worrisome for sure but DFW's biggest snowstorm was about as marginal as it got . High risk, high reward. Get the QPF modeled and we'll watch temps in hi-res mode.

And that cold blast was probably weaker than this one. Was just duration chill.

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

Hopefully later this month temps won’t be an issue for us. I never would’ve thought temps would be an issue with this system. The models have definitely lost the cold air the past few days.

[txtwister78]

CMC even has 42 degrees for a high Thursday in the Lubbock region with 32/33 around SA with snow and sleet.

Now you know why ensembles were more bullish across Central Texas. This was always going to be an upper level make or break situation absent widespread arctic cold.

[cheezyWXguy]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

It's worrisome for sure but DFW's biggest snowstorm was about as marginal as it got . High risk, high reward. Get the QPF modeled and we'll watch temps in hi-res mode.

And that cold blast was probably weaker than this one. Was just duration chill.

Is this not one of those scenarios where we account for global models (gfs, euro) being biased toward slightly overestimating surface temps? If I remember correctly, the icon has developed an unofficial reputation over the last few years of being better at handling surface temps in winter weather setups.

[Gotwood]

The temp issue is freaking me out!!!

Hopefully later this month temps won’t be an issue for us. I never would’ve thought temps would be an issue with this system. The models have definitely lost the cold air the past few days.

Going to be interesting to watch for sure.