Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

Why do I have this feeling that this is going to be a January-February 2021 Repeat?

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

With all due respect, that's fairly vague and anecdotal rather than anything else. There could be many other times I could list those observations in the past too. Does not foreshadow to something every time

[txtwister78]

Why do I have this feeling that this is going to be a January-February 2021 Repeat?

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

Nothing unusual about that list during most winters Ice. Stratwarms by themselves don't necessarily mean cold air down into Texas or Oklahoma. The 2021 Feb setup (intense cold and snow) had so many different variables line up that we quite frankly haven't seen since the 80's.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z gfs sure looks like fun. Nice to see something under 200 hours out. Not gonna bite yet, but if it’s still showing when we’re within 5 days then I’ll be a happy camper

[Iceresistance]

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

With all due respect, that's fairly vague and anecdotal rather than anything else. There could be many other times I could list those observations in the past too. Does not foreshadow anything

Then again, every winter has a rather unique setting, there can be similarities, but every Winter is unique every year, it's extremely hard in many areas to get the same Winter twice in a row.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has mentioned that Next Thursday could have some snow with Highs in the Upper 20s.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is featuring winter weather around 7-9 Days out, mostly along & North of I-20

EDIT: I spoke too soon, there is snow for DFW, & I get dry slotted (Less snow than DFW)

Same system the Ensembles have been hinting at for several days now….several S/Ws in Pacific jet and how they’ll interact with the ULL sitting offshore of Cali are playing havoc on the models right now. Probably won’t know much until early next week when they enter the Pacific Northwest

The biggest challenge for Texas continues to be that the TPV is anchored over the Northern Hudson Bay with lobes rotating down through the Great Lakes. That produces a pattern with lower mean heights across that whole area, making it hard for a s/w to amplify coming out of the SW. The 18z GFS temporarily pops a ridge across upper Midwest through the Great Lakes, which allows for a cutoff to come out into Texas. If that area of higher heights is too weak or too fast, then our upper low gets sheared out. It's tricky, but keep pouring energy into the West Coast and eventually, we'll get the timing right for Texas.

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is featuring winter weather around 7-9 Days out, mostly along & North of I-20

EDIT: I spoke too soon, there is snow for DFW, & I get dry slotted (Less snow than DFW)

Same system the Ensembles have been hinting at for several days now….several S/Ws in Pacific jet and how they’ll interact with the ULL sitting offshore of Cali are playing havoc on the models right now. Probably won’t know much until early next week when they enter the Pacific Northwest

The biggest challenge for Texas continues to be that the TPV is anchored over the Northern Hudson Bay with lobes rotating down through the Great Lakes. That produces a pattern with lower mean heights across that whole area, making it hard for a s/w to amplify coming out of the SW. The 18z GFS temporarily pops a ridge across upper Midwest through the Great Lakes, which allows for a cutoff to come out into Texas. If that area of higher heights is too weak or too fast, then our upper low gets sheared out. It's tricky, but keep pouring energy into the West Coast and eventually, we'll get the timing right for Texas.

Some good news, for now, is that we've seen SOME amplification of late as we get closer. TPV at least if it gets out of the way quick enough will allow things to somewhat slow. This weekend's system is a prime example of that, which originally was favored as a sheared mess. There's definitely been some correction going on medium range.

About a week out.


What it actually turned out to be.

[Ntxw]

FYI DFW today hit 79F which ties a record maximum for the date. Tomorrow at this time it'll be in the 30s with wind chills in the teens 30-50mph winds.

[ElectricStorm]

Why do I have this feeling that this is going to be a January-February 2021 Repeat?

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

That's... Literally every year. As others have mentioned, a Feb 2021 repeat probably isn't going to happen again for an extremely long time. There's a reason we had to back to like 1899 or something crazy like that to find the last cold outbreak that's was as extreme as last year. Sure we could see some cold shots and snow, but nothing like the cold snap last year most likely.

[Ntxw]

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

That's... Literally every year. As others have mentioned, a Feb 2021 repeat probably isn't going to happen again for an extremely long time. There's a reason we had to back to like 1899 or something crazy like that to find the last cold outbreak that's was as extreme as last year. Sure we could see some cold shots and snow, but nothing like the cold snap last year most likely.

I would agree Feb 2021 is a rarity, likely once a generational (30-40 year event). Probably won't happen that way in awhile.

In his defense the Ninas last year and this year some ways have not behaved very much like your typical La Ninas. Both went for warm Decembers and stepped down January and February. Typically you will see opposite in a canonical Nina. That's more characteristic of El Nino. Very strange couple of winters regarding tropical forcing. What we saw in December should be the pattern we would be seeing now through Febuary in a typical Nina.

The current tropical forcing near the dateline is more in line with your modoki moderate Nino. Which is why snow threats well deep into the South.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It wont. 2021 most probably wont happen again in our lifetime as mentioned many times before.

I've noticed many similarities to January 2021

• Some Cold Shots, but most of the extreme cold stays either in Canada & Alaska
• Some snow here & there in January
• Can get down to the Teens & 20s, but nothing extreme
• PV starts to become Unstable due to (Mostly) Sudden Stratwarms
• Mostly Dry & warm overall

That's... Literally every year. As others have mentioned, a Feb 2021 repeat probably isn't going to happen again for an extremely long time. There's a reason we had to back to like 1899 or something crazy like that to find the last cold outbreak that's was as extreme as last year. Sure we could see some cold shots and snow, but nothing like the cold snap last year most likely.

1989 was the last time we had sustained temps like that. I remember December of 1989 very well. It is what hooked me to weather.

I was 7 years old doing yard work with my Dad on the 22nd I believe. We went from 75 and Tstorms to 25 and Thundersleet in a matter of a hour. Then we got 3-4 inches of sleet followed up by 3 inches of snow. We had a White Christmas.

I like following all weather (although Summer is boring), but my love is Severe Winter Weather, especially in the South.

I have chased gnarly ice storms that made me blush and have buried myself in 4 feet of Snow in Montana.

[jasons2k]

Weather, and the resulting climatology statistics can be a tricky thing. A lesson I had to learn in my early years of watching weather is that the atmosphere has no emotions or memory of what happened last year, or even the last second. It's just physics. Sometimes the same conditions will appear in back-to-back years, and then you may go decades without anything similar. If you look at the historical cold outbreaks in Texas, they often came in bunches. This should not be too surprising considering the influences of ocean patterns such as the PDO, etc., that may last for a period of several years or even a whole decade. The same holds true with hurricanes. Remember when Florida was hit by four hurricanes back in 2004? And this was the year preceding the record-breaking season of 2005. When we first moved to Texas in 1988, we had double doses of record cold, snow and ice in 1989 and 1990. The infamous Ice Game at Texas Stadium on Thanksgiving, 1993 (still can't forgive Leon Lett). And then, nothing that cold again until 2021.

Over the years, the severe cold snaps have become less severe and more infrequent. When I lived up in the DFW Metroplex, we had an ice event almost every winter, even if it was only freezing drizzle. It was just part of life in the "ice belt" -- when tuning-in to Harold Taft on WBAP was your best source of the latest information until the news at 5 on 5.

Times sure have changed. Now, they seem to be a lot more rare as the climate warms.

[Cpv17]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

[jasons2k]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

Depends on the location. I believe 2021 actually beat some 1983 records in Austin. Not quite here in SE Texas though.

[Ntxw]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

Depends on the location. I believe 2021 actually beat some 1983 records in Austin. Not quite here in SE Texas though.

For the Northern half of the state and in particular northeast Texas it was probably top 2 or 3. For the southern half the 80s were probably colder.

Also depends which metric you want to use. Duration nothing beats 1983. 1989 was sharp but did not feature widespread ice and snow on a state level.

1899 likely stands as the top still.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

I got down to 4 in Montgomery County with negative teen wind chills. Had highs in the teens and 20s for a few days and a few inches of snow on top of ice then some more freezing rain a couple days later. It was absolutely on par with 1989.

My hometown in NETX destroyed 1989 on the precip front. My parents had 17 inches that week and went below zero for the first time since 1989.

[jasons2k]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

Depends on the location. I believe 2021 actually beat some 1983 records in Austin. Not quite here in SE Texas though.

For the Northern half of the state and in particular northeast Texas it was probably top 2 or 3. For the southern half the 80s were probably colder.

Also depends which metric you want to use. Duration nothing beats 1983. 1989 was sharp but did not feature widespread ice and snow on a state level.

1899 likely stands as the top still.

1895 is not as well documented but it brought widespread 20" - 26" of snow across the Texas Coast from Houston to Beaumont with drifts well over 2 feet. Railroads were shut down. Ice Jams on the Sabine. Supplies could not get in. Temperatures were extremely cold, too. It's not talked about much but it was a prelude to 1899, just a few years before.

[jasons2k]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

I got down to 4 in Montgomery County with negative teen wind chills. Had highs in the teens and 20s for a few days and a few inches of snow on top of ice then some more freezing rain a couple days later. It was absolutely on par with 1989.

My hometown in NETX destroyed 1989 on the precip front. My parents had 17 inches that week and went below zero for the first time since 1989.

While the cold we experienced last February was a severe outbreak, 1899 stands alone as the record-breaker. In 2021, it was a good 10-15 degrees warmer than 1899 across SE Texas. It ranked somewhere around 5th in terms of coldest outbreaks for us.

[Cpv17]

I’m not so sure last years cold blast had anything on 1899, 1983, or 1989. It was cold, sure, but to me it wasn’t that cold.

I got down to 4 in Montgomery County with negative teen wind chills. Had highs in the teens and 20s for a few days and a few inches of snow on top of ice then some more freezing rain a couple days later. It was absolutely on par with 1989.

My hometown in NETX destroyed 1989 on the precip front. My parents had 17 inches that week and went below zero for the first time since 1989.

It was nothing like that here in Wharton County. Coldest I got to was 13° with a feels like of -1°. And it was really only cold for like 2 days where it stayed below freezing.

[Iceresistance]

Enid is reporting "Squalls" right now, what is that? I've never heard of that observation before.