TX Winter Wx Threat # 10---cool/cold and wet?

[drezee]

Model guidance for DFW was 33 at 12z, dewpoint of 22 no precip until likely 21z. Precip is already there and the temp is 31 with a depwoint of 12F!

If this is any indication of the models inability to forecast in the situation, then N AL may be in for a surprise tomorrow morning!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fws...111&loop=no


Eta MOS (MET)
KDFW ETA MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2007 0000 UTC
DT /JAN 31 /FEB 1 /FEB 2 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 45 37 42 33 38
TMP 36 34 33 34 40 44 44 44 42 41 40 39 39 40 39 38 36 36 35 35 34
DPT 22 23 23 24 29 35 38 39 39 39 38 37 38 37 36 34 33 33 33 27 27
CLD BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
WDR 04 07 11 13 16 16 17 16 18 20 25 35 33 33 33 04 11 07 06 01 34
WSP 05 06 07 08 10 12 10 08 08 07 07 09 11 10 06 04 07 06 08 10 19
P06 4 27 38 21 34 45 25 5 16 21 28
P12 38 34 45 25 36
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 1 0 1
T06 0/ 0 2/ 0 1/ 0 2/ 7 5/ 0 3/ 2 2/ 3 3/ 9 2/ 0999/99
T12 3/ 0 3/ 7 7/ 2 5/ 9 999/99
SNW 0 0
CIG 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 5 4 3 4
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 5 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N BR BR BR BR N N N BR BR BR BR N



Same with Decatur TX!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick....57&map.y=66

MOS had freezing rain and 32!

It is snowing and 30 at 14z!


Also Witchia Fall, TX. currently snowing and 29!

Eta MOS (MET)
KSPS ETA MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2007 0000 UTC
DT /JAN 31 /FEB 1 /FEB 2 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 39 30 39 28 30
TMP 32 31 31 31 35 37 36 36 35 33 32 32 34 37 36 33 32 31 30 23 21
DPT 20 22 24 24 25 29 30 31 31 30 29 29 30 31 30 30 29 29 29 21 16
CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV
WDR 09 10 14 16 15 17 10 06 03 01 01 01 01 24 18 10 09 08 08 03 01
WSP 05 06 08 12 14 12 07 08 10 13 13 10 08 05 05 07 06 07 09 20 15
P06 12 63 12 32 32 28 9 4 12 28 27
P12 63 36 29 12 33
Q06 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1
Q12 1 1 0 0 1
T06 1/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 0 3/ 5 3/ 1 1/ 2 0/ 1 2/ 4 1/ 0999/99
T12 3/ 0 6/ 5 5/ 2 3/ 4 999/99
SNW 0 0
CIG 7 7 7 6 3 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 4 4 3 4
VIS 7 7 7 7 4 7 7 7 5 3 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 7
OBV N N N N BR N N N BR BR BR BR N N N N N BR HZ BR N

[HouTXmetro]

Looks to me that the air is a little stronger than forecasted.

[Portastorm]

The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

6zNAM@ 84hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Gotta question. Off of the charts you are posting for the Euro...where are you seeing the very cold air being driven into the southern plains and into Texas?

"Cold" ... "Very cold" ... AFM, I know you are patiently educating us (the less educated masses) but I don't see how you can deny that this weekend, the back end of the high will impact Texas. Sure we won't get the coldest air from this system but we will see a glancing blow and that will be enough (even as you have said) to drop our temps in various places of Texas from 10-20 below normal for a day or two.

I'm not sure anyone can make a credible argument that we will be the bullseye for this weekend's Arctic airmass ... but it will be cold enough for most of us!

[gboudx]

Sleet with snow flurries right now in Plano.

[Air Force Met]

"Cold" ... "Very cold" ... AFM, I know you are patiently educating us (the less educated masses) but I don't see how you can deny that this weekend, the back end of the high will impact Texas. Sure we won't get the coldest air from this system but we will see a glancing blow and that will be enough (even as you have said) to drop our temps in various places of Texas from 10-20 below normal for a day or two.

I'm not sure anyone can make a credible argument that we will be the bullseye for this weekend's Arctic airmass ... but it will be cold enough for most of us!

I guess what we need to determine is what is "Very cold?" I was also wanting to know what charts aggie was looking at to make that statement. Looking at the Euro...it very clearly shows the coldest air sliding off to the east by Saturday evening with the sfc high. It doesn't hang around through the weekend. So...what is there should start to moderate...and it will then get reinforced slightly on Tuesday (but that one is really going east).

The day 3 chart shows the coldest air diving down into the mid-west and the day 4 chart (Sat night) shows the high over MO and the coldest air seeping into the Ohio Valley...which will continue to take the brunt of this airmass through the remainder of the outbreak.

So...given that...I could certainly make a credible arguement we won't be the bullseye for the arctic airmass...the midwest is (on Friday and Saturday) and then the Ohio Valley is (on Sunday and Monday). We, as you said, get a glancing blow...or backdoored....but I would not call it a bullseye. Maybe it's just me...but a bullseye implies that the bulk of the cold air is coming right at you...and that is most certianly not the case. The bulk of the cold air is going east in the first round...and even further east during the second round because of the changing upper flow.

At any rate...yes...10-20 below normal is cold...do I consider it very cold? I don't personally. I consider "VERY COLD" when you get close to or start breaking records. I don't think we will see that. I think we will see run of the mill cold. "Very cold" is a matter of personally opinion and definitions. However, I was curious what aggie was seeing that showed the coldest air driving down into Texas...because nothing I am seeing shows that.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas.

0z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

6zNAM@ 84hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

Gotta question. Off of the charts you are posting for the Euro...where are you seeing the very cold air being driven into the southern plains and into Texas?

"Cold" ... "Very cold" ... AFM, I know you are patiently educating us (the less educated masses) but I don't see how you can deny that this weekend, the back end of the high will impact Texas. Sure we won't get the coldest air from this system but we will see a glancing blow and that will be enough (even as you have said) to drop our temps in various places of Texas from 10-20 below normal for a day or two.

I'm not sure anyone can make a credible argument that we will be the bullseye for this weekend's Arctic airmass ... but it will be cold enough for most of us!

Why do I think alot of forecasts are going to bust this weekend? Our local TV mets down here are going to leave the weekend guys to explain it all when the temps are much lower than 60's they are predicting. Not the first time they've had to leave it to the weekend crews to clean up.

[double D]

Its funny... the local mets are saying we are going to have a cold weekend, when the actual temps they are forecasting for Saturday and Sunday are warmer than today and yesterday... They didnt say anything about today or yesterday being cold... I guess its all in the news hype... ?

I know excatly what you mean Yankeegirl. I was watching KSAT news in San Antonio, and the met said that the arctic front moves in Saturday with a high of 56....what? We have Pacific fronts that are stronger that that.

[Portastorm]

"Cold" ... "Very cold" ... AFM, I know you are patiently educating us (the less educated masses) but I don't see how you can deny that this weekend, the back end of the high will impact Texas. Sure we won't get the coldest air from this system but we will see a glancing blow and that will be enough (even as you have said) to drop our temps in various places of Texas from 10-20 below normal for a day or two.

I'm not sure anyone can make a credible argument that we will be the bullseye for this weekend's Arctic airmass ... but it will be cold enough for most of us!

I guess what we need to determine is what is "Very cold?" I was also wanting to know what charts aggie was looking at to make that statement. Looking at the Euro...it very clearly shows the coldest air sliding off to the east by Saturday evening with the sfc high. It doesn't hang around through the weekend. So...what is there should start to moderate...and it will then get reinforced slightly on Tuesday (but that one is really going east).

The day 3 chart shows the coldest air diving down into the mid-west and the day 4 chart (Sat night) shows the high over MO and the coldest air seeping into the Ohio Valley...which will continue to take the brunt of this airmass through the remainder of the outbreak.

So...given that...I could certainly make a credible arguement we won't be the bullseye for the arctic airmass...the midwest is (on Friday and Saturday) and then the Ohio Valley is (on Sunday and Monday). We, as you said, get a glancing blow...or backdoored....but I would not call it a bullseye. Maybe it's just me...but a bullseye implies that the bulk of the cold air is coming right at you...and that is most certianly not the case. The bulk of the cold air is going east in the first round...and even further east during the second round because of the changing upper flow.

At any rate...yes...10-20 below normal is cold...do I consider it very cold? I don't personally. I consider "VERY COLD" when you get close to or start breaking records. I don't think we will see that. I think we will see run of the mill cold. "Very cold" is a matter of personally opinion and definitions. However, I was curious what aggie was seeing that showed the coldest air driving down into Texas...because nothing I am seeing shows that.

Well said AFM, well said!

I haven't seen anything in the GFS or Euro that would contradict your thoughts. And like you ... "very cold" to me is temps near record-breaking. "Cold" would mean 10-20 below normal.

The bullseye for this weekend is the Great Lakes and the southeast U.S.

[gboudx]

Almost all of NTX is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes the DFW area. In effect until 1pm. I guess if the temp doesn't warm like they expect it to by then, the drive home could be a mess. Still sleeting pretty good outside.

[Portastorm]

Almost all of NTX is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes the DFW area. In effect until 1pm. I guess if the temp doesn't warm like they expect it to by then, the drive home could be a mess. Still sleeting pretty good outside.

Enjoy it buddy! I'm jealous ...

[Air Force Met]

Why do I think alot of forecasts are going to bust this weekend? Our local TV mets down here are going to leave the weekend guys to explain it all when the temps are much lower than 60's they are predicting. Not the first time they've had to leave it to the weekend crews to clean up.

Yeah...forecasting 60's was nuts given the upper level pattern alone.

Frankly...given that flow...I'm not even sure 60's is possible. I'll stick with the upper 40's to near 50 given the sunshine that will be there. Highs in the 30's for the DFW area. OF course...today they will be lucky to get out of the 30's with precip falling.

[double D]

Almost all of NTX is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes the DFW area. In effect until 1pm. I guess if the temp doesn't warm like they expect it to by then, the drive home could be a mess. Still sleeting pretty good outside.

With those low dewpoints I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dallas area fall into the upper 20's with precip. falling. Did they predict this yesterday?

[gboudx]

Almost all of NTX is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes the DFW area. In effect until 1pm. I guess if the temp doesn't warm like they expect it to by then, the drive home could be a mess. Still sleeting pretty good outside.

Enjoy it buddy! I'm jealous ...

Well, it's tough to enjoy it being stuck in an office building with no window to look out of. Honestly, if it isn't gonna snow, then I'd prefer it only rained. Sleet and freezing rain just make already idiotic drivers more dangerous.

With those low dewpoints I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dallas area fall into the upper 20's with precip. falling. Did they predict this yesterday?

As of the 10pm news last night, only points to the NW of DFW were supposed to see any sleet/snow. But like we'ves already seen this month, things can change overnight. Literally.

[double D]

The 12z NAM continues to look pretty cold for this weekend. It has been consistent on showing this too. It now brings the 0c 2 meter line into south Central Texas. With clear skies Saturday night and Sunday, I still expect that we could easily see lower 20's for Central Texas.

[Brent]

Almost all of NTX is now under a Winter Weather Advisory. This includes the DFW area. In effect until 1pm. I guess if the temp doesn't warm like they expect it to by then, the drive home could be a mess. Still sleeting pretty good outside.

Hmmmm... our little bout with sleet tonight is coming from where snow is falling now.

[TexasStooge]

We had some good snow a 1/2 hour ago, but all that turned into freezing mist.

[Johnny]

We had some good snow a 1/2 hour ago, but all that turned into freezing mist.

I wish I'll be able to say that one day!!!! Mine would have a crap load of smiles attached to it though.

[aggiecutter]

AFM, the little "Straw man" your trying to create is not working. You have heard of the fallacy of logic of creating a " Straw man". Politicians create "Straw Men" all the time to misrepresent their opponents point of view, and that is what you are doing here. Here is a quote from you" However, I was curious what aggie was seeing that showed the coldest air driving down into Texas." Now, I'm going to ask you to find where I said the "Coldest" as in the motherload of the air would be coming down into Texas. Or, show me where I even used the word coldest in any of my post. Having said that, the last 3 runs of the NAM have been very cold for Texas. Yes, I am using the word very cold as in 20 or so degrees below normal for a couple days, which has been my contention all a long.

[CajunMama]

Aggiecutter....it may have been an innocent mistake on afm's part. He's answering alot of posts and probably trying to work at the same time. And there's no need to assume that someone else is trying to create something.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, the little "Straw man" your trying to create is not working. You have heard of the fallacy of logic of creating a " Straw man". Politicians create "Straw Men" all the time to misrepresent their opponents point of view, and that is what you are doing here. Here is a quote from you" However, I was curious what aggie was seeing that showed the coldest air driving down into Texas." Now, I'm going to ask you to find where I said the "Coldest" as in the motherload of the air would be coming down into Texas. Or, show me where I even used the word coldest in any of my post. Having said that, the last 3 runs of the NAM have been very cold for Texas. Yes, I am using the word very cold as in 20 or so degrees below normal for a couple days, which has been my contention all a long.

Whoa....first of all...I am not using a straw man. I was simply asking you a question. It was one I had talked about previously but not seen your response to it. As I said...I asked WHAT CHARTS you were using that showed that the EURO was making it "very cold Sat-Mon" because the EURO...at least the charts I am looking at...does not make it very cold on Sunday and MOnday...the cold air begins to receed to the east. So...all I asked was what chart you are looking at.

If you will go back and read what I read...I never said you claimed the "motherload" was coming down...not once! I said...MY words...that the coldest air was sliding east...and according to my definition of very cold (which is near record breaking or record breaking...which IS the coldest air...NOT what we are getting) that is sliding east. So...by asking a question...how am I misrepresenting what you are saying? Your statement was "The EURO for about the 6th run in a row still has the southern plains and Texas very cold Sat-Mon.. Also, the NAM continues its trend of driving the cold air deep into Texas." Portastorm made the bullseye comment. MOst of my reponse that you seem to think was a straw man to you...wasn't a response to you at all...but was to her.

All I wanted to know was...and I'll ask again..."Off of the charts you are posting for the Euro...where are you seeing the very cold air being driven into the southern plains and into Texas?" I asked that...because from what I am seeing on the Euro...it is not being "driven" into Texas at all. It is being driven into the mid-west and Ohio valley and backdoored into Texas...and the Euro's 850 temps show the warm beginning by late weekend...and from the 850 mb temps....especially on Sunday...it's not what I would consider very cold (as per my definition...but we each have our own).

So...no straw man...I never accused you of making that statement...go back and re-read what I wrote. I made a statement. REasked the questions I wanted to ask you...and made another statement about what the EURO showed. I NEVER said that you said it showed otherwise. I then proceeded to address P.storms post.