TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Portastorm]

Given Wxman57's latest projections ... and should the front continue its progress, my guess is it would go through the Austin metro area around 6 am tomorrow.

Of course, aggiecutter and gboudx keep saying the front will bypass Austin.

Meanwhile, where is my buddy Burn1? I thought we had nothing to worry about.

[david30]

Hey WXMAN57 can you check your pm box? Thanks!!!

[Kelarie]

Given Wxman57's latest projections ... and should the front continue its progress, my guess is it would go through the Austin metro area around 6 am tomorrow.

Of course, aggiecutter and gboudx keep saying the front will bypass Austin.

Meanwhile, where is my buddy Burn1? I thought we had nothing to worry about.

Porta, if it bypasses our area, I will help you get those guys. It is our turn to have a taste of winter.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57,

Again, great work. You are to be commended. Question. At that rate that you have for the Dallas area, are you still thinking that it (the front) will pass the Houston area at 6 am, 12 noon or 6 pm? The reason I ask is for the Houston Marathon. Our local met (Frank Billingsly) stated the temperatures will be in the 60's ( I guess that maybe when the Houston Marathon starts-7 am). You gave an estimate earlier about temps during the day on Sunday. Is this still holding true? David Paul mentioned that if the front comes in faster than the models forecast, Monday could really be a mess. Your thoughts?

[CaptinCrunch]

The DFW NWS didn't seem all that concerned for this area in the morning AFD. I get the impression some folks here think that will bust. I haven't been able to really pay too much attention yet, so I'm curious about why we might go from no SWS to an Ice Storm Warning.

I did some front mocement calculations. Between 00Z and 12Z it moved 10.6 kts. From 9Z-13Z it moved about the same in the direction of Dallas. At 8am CDT it was 88 miles from Dallas, that puts it into central Dallas around 4pm this afternoon. Within 2 hours after FROPA, the temperature will be in the upper 30s and falling. Probably below freeezing in Dallas before midnight. With precip likely the next few days, you'll be in a warning soon.

Thanks WXMAN57,

This whole system will create a BIG icy mess for D/FW, and local (tv) met's will fall as the goats for not having a better handle on things.

[Tireman4]

They (NWS) really underestimated this one. This really could be significant. David Paul (KHOU) is readily admitting the models are wrong. Goodness

[TrekkerCC]

The DFW NWS didn't seem all that concerned for this area in the morning AFD. I get the impression some folks here think that will bust. I haven't been able to really pay too much attention yet, so I'm curious about why we might go from no SWS to an Ice Storm Warning.

I did some front mocement calculations. Between 00Z and 12Z it moved 10.6 kts. From 9Z-13Z it moved about the same in the direction of Dallas. At 8am CDT it was 88 miles from Dallas, that puts it into central Dallas around 4pm this afternoon. Within 2 hours after FROPA, the temperature will be in the upper 30s and falling. Probably below freeezing in Dallas before midnight. With precip likely the next few days, you'll be in a warning soon.

Thanks WXMAN57,

This whole system will create a BIG icy mess for D/FW, and local (tv) met's will fall as the goats for not having a better handle on things.

Yes, thanks WXMAN57. Last night, when I went to go to bed, I thought the front was continuing to travel very quickly south. This confirms it. Ft. Worth NWS Office will have some interesting things to say in the afternoon discussion.

[Tireman4]

This is the example David Paul used on how much the models missed this:
In Oklahoma City, the orginal forecast 12 hours ago was low 40's and rain.

This is now:
Periods of freezing rain. Some thunder is also possible. Temperature falling to around 27 by 4pm. North northeast wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

It is 25 NOW!!!!!!!

[wxman57]

Just looking at the 12Z MesoETA 1000mb wind streamlines. It moves the front through Dallas by 00Z tonight, to Waco by 9pm this evening, to Austin by 12Z Saturday, San Antonio by 18z-20Z Saturday, and into NW Harris County by 00Z Sunday (6pm Saturday). It then stalls the front in NW Harris County through 6pm Sunday. Somehow I think that's not likely.

As for the Marathon, I have quite a few friends running in it and have been sending out private forcasts to them. I just am not sure if the front will move through before, during, or after the marathon. I think it has a better chance of moving through before or during rather than after. Won't really be too confident until Saturday evening.

[Tireman4]

Gotcha. We do appreciate you and Jeff, as well as the other Pro-Mets that help us.

[HouTXmetro]

So in other words we can expect frontal passage Early Sunday Morning?

[wxman57]

So in other words we can expect frontal passage Early Sunday Morning?

That is possible, but I do expect a little slowing of the frontal movement to the southeast over the weekend. Could push southward west of Houston and then nudge eastward across Harris County on Sunday. Just not sure exactly when it'll reach central Houston yet.

[Portastorm]

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner:

Arctic front making much better south plunge than even I expected.
Front is approaching Dallas and should be through that location by late afternoon.

Winter Storm Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings will need southward adjustment this afternoon due to faster frontal push.

SE TX:

Will need to consider moving frontal timing up to Sunday morning metro areas. May also need to onset freezing rain sooner and ramp up accumulation amounts. Pushing amounts much higher puts us into the warning criteria range and I suspect Winter Storm Watches will be needed by Saturday afternoon now instead of Sun AM.

Will keep freezing rain out of Harris County until Monday evening at this time, but may move this up to Monday morning this afternoon. Expect freezing rain and glazing ongoing northern counties and southward west of Houston toward Columbus and maybe Wharton by Monday morning.

Prolonged icing still looks likely with freezing rain and sleet mixture through Wednesday. Am becoming nervous on accumulation amounts as long duration could produce some hefty totals. May need to start considering widespread power outages and significant vegetation damage if QPF is increased much more and timing onset of freezing temps move up.

Will send another update late this afternoon.

[HouTXmetro]

So in other words we can expect frontal passage Early Sunday Morning?

That is possible, but I do expect a little slowing of the frontal movement to the southeast over the weekend. Could push southward west of Houston and then nudge eastward across Harris County on Sunday. Just not sure exactly when it'll reach central Houston yet.

I have noticed the Eastward progression is much slower than the southward movement.

[jasons2k]

Unfortunately it looks like I may have to take the most extreme measures and hack-off every palm frond, just leaving the crown, to cover my palms. They won't look "normal" again until late summer, if they survive.

[wxman57]

So in other words we can expect frontal passage Early Sunday Morning?

That is possible, but I do expect a little slowing of the frontal movement to the southeast over the weekend. Could push southward west of Houston and then nudge eastward across Harris County on Sunday. Just not sure exactly when it'll reach central Houston yet.

I have noticed the Eastward progression is much slower than the southward movement.

That's what Arctic air does, it sinks due south lee of the Rockies, often reaching Brownsville before it pushes east to Houston. Makes it very difficult to predict FROPA here.

[gboudx]

DFW now under a WSW.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ093>095-103>106-117>121-130>134-141>145-122200-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.070113T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...
HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

...SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJOR
ICE STORM APPEARS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW ALL
DAY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL FREEZE
ON EXPOSED SURFACES IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS MAINLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO TERRELL TO PARIS LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IN
THE WATCH AREA. TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED. AT HOME...MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE PLENTY OF NON-
PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS...WATER...AND EXTRA BLANKETS IN ANTICIPATION
OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

[Tireman4]

The roller coaster ride continues.

[TrekkerCC]

DFW now under a WSW.

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

TXZ093>095-103>106-117>121-130>134-141>145-122200-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0002.070113T0000Z-070115T0000Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...
GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...
MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...
HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

...SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY
BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MAJOR
ICE STORM APPEARS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW ALL
DAY SATURDAY. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN WHICH WILL FREEZE
ON EXPOSED SURFACES IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH
AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO AN ICE STORM WARNING LATER TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS MAINLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO TERRELL TO PARIS LINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE-HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH AREA.

ICE ACCUMULATION ON ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IN
THE WATCH AREA. TRAVEL IN THESE AREAS IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
IF TRAVEL IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME
STRANDED. AT HOME...MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE PLENTY OF NON-
PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS...WATER...AND EXTRA BLANKETS IN ANTICIPATION
OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

Well, it "officially" looks like North Texas is under the gun this weekend. Better get ready folks (in all areas of Texas).

[JenBayles]

Yikes! I can hardly believe this whole ice storm scenario appears to be verifying. Heading out to stock up the woodpile for both me and my mother. At this right, might as well count on losing power at some point. My experience with similar events in the past here in Houston is that the power crews really do a great job getting service back up. As long as prep is done beforehand, just gotta wait it out a while.

Any bets on how many idiots will hit the icy roads (and each other) early next week? I just GOTTA go to work!