Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

Been reading once again about the infamous North Texas “Cobblestone Ice Storm” winter weather event 10 years ago. Worst driving conditions I’ve ever seen with 3-5 inches of sleet here in Grayson County. My wife and our kids missed school from Wednesday until the following Tuesday. Highway 75 was a parking lot for two or three days.

Some Facebook memories that have popped up this week:

DFW Scanner and others — If you don't have to go through Wise County tonight (specifically Rhome), stay home otherwise you will get stranded for the night, we are being told. Highways 287 and 114 in Rhome are beyond treacherous with solid ice, 8 inches in some spots.

Also, its probably a good idea to stay away from I20 west of Weatherford. Many people were stranded last night due to highway closures, ice, and stuck 18 wheelers/vehicles. Lows tonight will dip into the low 20s and high teens causing yet another re-freeze. I know we are beating a dead horse with this, but please folks, stay off the roads unless you must travel.

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What does AVOID US 75 SB AND NB mean to us? "Using this route at this time is to intentionally and knowingly gamble with your life, your property and that of your passengers and other motorists." Sarah Somers, Director, Grayson County OEM
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@GraysonCounty: US75 still hazardous - do not travel this roadway unless you are prepared for wait times of HOURS.
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My husband has worked for the Post Office for 10 years and this was the first time that he was told not to come to work today! Please if you have to be out BE CAREFUL!!
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ALERT! PLEASE PASS ALONG...

Oklahoma Highway Patrol is shutting down access to Texas on Hwy 75. ALL TRAFFIC WILL BE EXITED AT HWY 91 IN COLBERT AND SENT BACK NORTH.
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Texas DPS Trooper: Got called in on my day off and just spent 10 hours on Hwy 82 West. 6-8 miles of East bound traffic is at a dead stand still and will be until tomorrow. 100's of vehicles stranded all night and we are working 12 shifts 24/7 until it clears up. Please stay home unless it's an actual Emergency!

This was the winter of -EPO/-WPO, what a stretch! If I remember correctly, while there weren't any 'major' events the rest of that winter, every other week seemingly we were under a winter storm watch or winter weather advisory. FW did a write up that frozen precip chances were frequent that winter.

[Itryatgolf]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, we got a ways to go before the pattern gets more favorable and that will depend on the mjo progression. The SSW is interesting, but it has to propagate and then no guarantees it comes here whenever it develops. All speculation but I do hope we have a few weeks of solid cold enough for winter precipitation. I think from everyone I've spoken to niños are backloaded I guess

I wouldn't count on an SSW to effect us meaningfully until mid to late January. Long range model hints at deeper Aleutian-GOA trough which is precursor wave 1 to further implicate the strat PV but that's after it occurs. PV is already in a weakened state, so we can expect more periods of -AO. This period of -AO dislodged over in Asia and we haven't benefited from it.

It seems like every -ao cycle has gone overseas so far, leaving us high and dry lol. I know winter just started but i hope we aren't chasing unicorns all winter and we can get colder if the SSW actually happens

[Ntxw]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, we got a ways to go before the pattern gets more favorable and that will depend on the mjo progression. The SSW is interesting, but it has to propagate and then no guarantees it comes here whenever it develops. All speculation but I do hope we have a few weeks of solid cold enough for winter precipitation. I think from everyone I've spoken to niños are backloaded I guess

I wouldn't count on an SSW to effect us meaningfully until mid to late January. Long range model hints at deeper Aleutian-GOA trough which is precursor wave 1 to further implicate the strat PV but that's after it occurs. PV is already in a weakened state, so we can expect more periods of -AO. This period of -AO dislodged over in Asia and we haven't benefited from it.

It seems like every -ao cycle has gone overseas so far, leaving us high and dry lol. I know winter just started but i hope we aren't chasing unicorns all winter and we can get colder if the SSW actually happens

SSW during El Nino isn't as meaningful (from the norm) as they are during neutral or La Nina, anecdotally from just experiencing it throughout the years. The tropospheric PV is generally already weak, so a major SSW likely wouldn't shift it from one spectrum to the other, noticeably. It does help though, since it's a feedback mechanism, bottom up to top down type thing. I still don't expect any major arctic blasts, as they don't generally occur that often during strong El Ninos. We just have to hit some big storms, and give us a some cold to work with.

What we are waiting for is the Asian cold with descending high to raise the AAM (GLAAM) when climo gets colder later.

[HockeyTx82]

Well that doesn't happen every day........

We do need to stop drilling for oil. If we take it all out of the ground the planet's natural lubrication will be gone and we will get more earthquakes.

I'm a 10 yr geologist in the O&G industry w/ a MS in Petroleum Geology- no offense but this doesn't make any sense.

What's causing the earthquakes? Hard to say, but most likely injection of produced water in "salt water disposal" wells that is pressuring up faults, etc.

Either way, statements like this don't belong here. Pure pseudoscience, again no offense.

It was meant to be a joke. Sorry it was taken differently. Working at a college like I do I hear lots of crazy stuff daily.

It's along the lines of this is what I was trying for.

https://youtu.be/cesSRfXqS1Q?feature=shared

[Quixotic]

I’m looking for the Aleutian Low. That was a big signal in 2009-10. But that also had monster blocking for the AO and NAO, a la 77-78.

[Ntxw]

2009-10 was almost wall to wall Aleutian low pattern. Ridging often poked through Alaska. Of course the big -AO/-NAO.



The euro weeklies (now runs daily) isn't quite that pattern until after Christmas.

[Quixotic]

2009-10 was almost wall to wall Aleutian low pattern. Ridging often poked through Alaska. Of course the big -AO/-NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/ajVrS8k.gif

The euro weeklies (now runs daily) isn't quite that pattern until after Christmas.

77-78 was a complete absence of winter until NYE and then two of the coldest months in FWD history with -10 departures. As a kid, it seemed like it snowed every day.

[Itryatgolf]

I wouldn't count on an SSW to effect us meaningfully until mid to late January. Long range model hints at deeper Aleutian-GOA trough which is precursor wave 1 to further implicate the strat PV but that's after it occurs. PV is already in a weakened state, so we can expect more periods of -AO. This period of -AO dislodged over in Asia and we haven't benefited from it.

It seems like every -ao cycle has gone overseas so far, leaving us high and dry lol. I know winter just started but i hope we aren't chasing unicorns all winter and we can get colder if the SSW actually happens

SSW during El Nino isn't as meaningful (from the norm) as they are during neutral or La Nina, anecdotally from just experiencing it throughout the years. The tropospheric PV is generally already weak, so a major SSW likely wouldn't shift it from one spectrum to the other, noticeably. It does help though, since it's a feedback mechanism, bottom up to top down type thing. I still don't expect any major arctic blasts, as they don't generally occur that often during strong El Ninos. We just have to hit some big storms, and give us a some cold to work with.

What we are waiting for is the Asian cold with descending high to raise the AAM (GLAAM) when climo gets colder later.

I hope that can occur because we are far away from that pattern as of now. We definitely need a shakeup in the pattern if we can get one. Way too much niña influence currently but hopefully it will change because there is alot of cold air overseas

[bubba hotep]

I’m looking for the Aleutian Low. That was a big signal in 2009-10. But that also had monster blocking for the AO and NAO, a la 77-78.

This will get it done but it will also flood the US with Pacific air. The GEFS also shows all the cold on the other side of the world bleeding out into the Pacific and moderating behind this streak.

[Brent]

Yikes we tied the record from the least snowy analog 91-92. This was also the coldest Halloween since 91 this would be the absolute worst analog other than the fact it was apparently wet but hardly any snow at all even up here. Really hope this is not a sign with all the hype this winter has

[DallasAg]

2009-10 was almost wall to wall Aleutian low pattern. Ridging often poked through Alaska. Of course the big -AO/-NAO.

https://i.imgur.com/ajVrS8k.gif

The euro weeklies (now runs daily) isn't quite that pattern until after Christmas.

77-78 was a complete absence of winter until NYE and then two of the coldest months in FWD history with -10 departures. As a kid, it seemed like it snowed every day.

And that string of cold winters in the mid/late 70s spawned some fears that we were slipping into another ice age. Crazy how times changed!

[bubba hotep]

Really no signs of cold air, with the pattern favoring much above normal temps in our source region. It does look like West Texas and the Panhandle will see a nice rain event next week, and then things look to turn wetter overall for Texas (How long have we been saying that about the longer range )

[bubba hotep]

12z models have trended towards bringing more rain out across the state with the next system. Let's see what the Euro does.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the 12z Euro has shifted south with the cut off low, hopefully more folks will get beneficial rains from this, man some of the models really dig this low deep down into the state, if only it had some cold air to work with

[Cpv17]

Looks like the 12z Euro has shifted south with the cut off low, hopefully more folks will get beneficial rains from this, man some of the models really dig this low deep down into the state, if only it had some cold air to work with

The 12z Euro still doesn’t show much rain in southeast TX though. Maybe 1-2”. I’m waiting for that big system that will give us 5-10” amounts of widespread rain! That’s what I really want lol

[Quixotic]

I’m looking for the Aleutian Low. That was a big signal in 2009-10. But that also had monster blocking for the AO and NAO, a la 77-78.

This will get it done but it will also flood the US with Pacific air. The GEFS also shows all the cold on the other side of the world bleeding out into the Pacific and moderating behind this streak.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023120818/gfs-ens_uv250_npac_65.png

You’re killing my buzz. Haha

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really no signs of cold air, with the pattern favoring much above normal temps in our source region. It does look like West Texas and the Panhandle will see a nice rain event next week, and then things look to turn wetter overall for Texas (How long have we been saying that about the longer range )

Do we cancel again?

[Iceresistance]

Unrelated to Texas, but Itryatgolf had a close call to this... It happened in the Nashville Metro

 https://twitter.com/BirdingPeepWx/status/1733620643948531805

[Itryatgolf]

Unrelated to Texas, but Itryatgolf had a close call to this... It happened in the Nashville Metro

https://twitter.com/BirdingPeepWx/status/1733620643948531805

I live in jackson tn now but I did have a tornado warning but most of the bad stuff was to my north.

[Stratton23]

Pretty good bet that christmas is going to be above normal for many, this persistent + PNA is going no where, and in fact it may actually get stronger heading into christmas and new years week, absolutely depressing