Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Overall it looks like the next 15 days is going to be above normal in the temperature department for the state of Texas. It looks like the cool weather is going to stick over the western part of the country for a while.

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You're assuming the GFS will verify?!

Cosgrove has been harping on a mid month change to much colder for the eastern two-thirds of the US including Texas. We shall see.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

37.0 F here in Sugar Land this morning

[Turtle]

Only dropped to 36 here near Longview. I had colder temps in the middle of last October!

[Rgv20]

Overall it looks like the next 15 days is going to be above normal in the temperature department for the state of Texas. It looks like the cool weather is going to stick over the western part of the country for a while.

{Images deleted}

You're assuming the GFS will verify?!

Cosgrove has been harping on a mid month change to much colder for the eastern two-thirds of the US including Texas. We shall see.

To much of my despise the GFS Ensembles have the backing of the 0zECMWF Ensemble Control Run which goes out to 15 days. I'm so ready for a cold cloudy drizzly day...A classic winter day in the RGV!

On a side note the low for my little town was 43F!

[Portastorm]

Dang RGV ... I was hoping you had better news! Oh well, we appreciate you keeping an eye on those ensembles.

I suspect that those of us in South Central Texas down to your area will probably miss out on beneficial rain from this next front (early next week). NWSFO Austin/San Antonio has already alluded to us getting dryslotted to some degree as what happens in La Nina patterns. Seen that so much this fall already!

[Rgv20]

I cant believe how dry it has been this past year and unfortunately for my area it looks to be dry for the next 7 to 10 days However it looks like your area Portastorm has a decent shot of Rain Monday Night until Tuesday Morning all the way south to about San Antonio. North Texas and Oklahoma looks to be the big winners for this upcoming rain event.

I was taking a look at the long range GFS and Euro and it looks like both of the models want to start building up some cold air in NW Canada 9 to 10 days from now. The operational 0zECMWF has a 1041mb High and the 12zGFS has a 1046mb High by day 10 with 850mb temperatures in the -20 to -22C range. Its probably wont amount to nothing but it is November so we have to keep an eye to the north.



12zGFS Ensembles 850mb Temperatures Valid for Wednesday Morning (11-16-2011)






0zECMWF Ensembles 850mb Temperatures Valid for Tuesday Evening





On a side note it was a very warm morning here in the Rio Grande Valley. Here are some of the morning lows around the area..

Brownsville-------76
Harlingen---------75
Edinburg---------75
McAllen----------75
Rio Grande City---73

[Ntxw]

Look at all that blocking! ^ MJO is moving towards the favorable quadrants (6-7-8) in the coming weeks which will likely translate into a +PNA. The western trough should slowly translate eastward with forcing in time, and when the NAO decides to go negative, I'm guessing the east will join in as well. Being that the sun angle is getting less by the day and the time of year we are in, certainly interesting times ahead a comin!



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Also may seem insignificant now, but the northern high plains and western Canada is beginning to build up snow pack. More to add this coming week.



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My guess is that we are 2-3 weeks away from late night model watching to see where the freezing line sets up in the southern plains! Good riddance to daylight savings, giving us model runs one hour sooner!

[cycloneye]

Rgv20 and Ntxw,what do you think of this 12z ECMWF at 216 hours showing almost all the state with precipitation?

[Ntxw]

Rgv20 and Ntxw,what do you think of this 12z ECMWF at 216 hours showing almost all the state with precipitation?

Storms like those will continue to round about the western trough. High pressure in the Gulf will bring in moisture consistently into the middle part of the country so I think it will verify. May not be that exact storm, but several similar scenarios could occur as lows track to the midwest from the SW and bring widespread thunderstorms in the same time frame. Similar to spring time set ups.

[Rgv20]

Rgv20 and Ntxw,what do you think of this 12z ECMWF at 216 hours showing almost all the state with precipitation?

Actually the 12zECMWF has some very light QPF for the state as is quite a bit north with this storm system. The ECMWF Ensemble Control Run and the ECMWF Monthly forecast have been rather consistent on having a precipitation swath from North Texas, Central and Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Southern Wisconsin.

[Ntxw]

Both Euro and GFS are dumping some mighty (-30c iso) cold air into NW Canada and Alaska coupled with an Aleutian ridge week before thanksgiving with a strong front coming down the front range, lets see if this verifies.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the 11/08/2011 0zGFS is still entertaining that idea.

0zGFS 850mb Temperatures Valid for Wednesday Evening.





At this same time frame the 850mb Temperature Departures from Climatology are pretty impressive in NW Canada and Alaska.

[gpsnowman]

Both Euro and GFS are dumping some mighty (-30c iso) cold air into NW Canada and Alaska coupled with an Aleutian ridge week before thanksgiving with a strong front coming down the front range, lets see if this verifies.

Man, I hope it does verify. Nice heavy rain in G.P. tonight but these muggy warm November days are getting boring. Yuck. The neighborhood trees are finally starting to change color so some crisp autumn air would be perfect. Come on cold, get here.

[iorange55]

That Alaska storm looks like it's going to be crazy.

[Nightwatch]

I read on Twitter that the "seabrooke", a vessel from Discoveries "Deadliest Catch" is in the middle of the storm.
Can't confirm that however.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Both Euro and GFS are dumping some mighty (-30c iso) cold air into NW Canada and Alaska coupled with an Aleutian ridge week before thanksgiving with a strong front coming down the front range, lets see if this verifies.

Man, I hope it does verify. Nice heavy rain in G.P. tonight but these muggy warm November days are getting boring. Yuck. The neighborhood trees are finally starting to change color so some crisp autumn air would be perfect. Come on cold, get here.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLG_YByllpo[/youtube]

From NW Canada (will throw in -40's if I have my way)

Fans ALL turned towards Texas.

[Ntxw]

From NW Canada (will throw in -40's if I have my way)

Fans ALL turned towards Texas.

Have them on turbo! I'd like a cold thanksgiving dinner over the fire please



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[SaskatchewanScreamer]

From NW Canada (will throw in -40's if I have my way)

Fans ALL turned towards Texas.

Have them on turbo! I'd like a cold thanksgiving dinner over the fire please

You know that hoodie that you folks forgot what it was good for?????? Y'all are going to need a LOT more than it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgqfQuiv ... re=related

Be careful what you wish for.

If 120F Gulf of Mexico humidity and temps can make it up here (and they did) other weather just might go your way.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Do you really want to break this record too: "The coldest temperature ever recorded in Houston was 5 °F (−15 °C) on January 23, 1930."?

A Canadian winter in Houstoon, Saskatchewan (I got to live in Moose Jaw, Texas for a short while this summer).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXDZVm3fIHE&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

Have fun (p.s snowmen and snowballs can't be made with that snow...)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

JB in twitter compared this 'epic' alaska winter storm with the 1974 storm and tweeted that 3 weeks later the Northeast had a HUGE storm as well. I had some spare time today so i decided to look at the analogs for 1950 and 1974, two years that are similar to this La Nina event.

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/dat ... _maps.html
The link above is the daily weather archives i used to look at the weather for those years and WOW, there were some big cold out breaks for those years. These dates are the dates i recorded for interest.

1/13/75
2/23/75
12/06/50
2/1/51
3/13/51