Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On another note, ensembles really dont show much warmth even going into the long range , in fact they are in very impressive agreement on a new - EPO alaskan ridge forming mid- late month, trough starts retrograding back to the west, dont think we are down with winter yet

The signal is getting stronger. Deep winter will be Jan 15-Feb 5th imo. The mean trough will be very favorable for the Great Plains.

https://i.imgur.com/hO0Iuxo.png

This.

Also means i need more firewood.

[gpsnowman]

Crews are out pre-treating bridges on Dallas North Tollway and Sam Rayburn Tollway this afternoon. Jumping the gun a bit?

Same with NB 161 through Grand Prairie into Irving.

[Lagreeneyes03]

I’m hoping this is a case of the models losing the cold air in the mid-late range and they will bring it back. Cold air certainly didn’t seem to be the negative, but seems like it’s all being swept to the east too quickly now.

Seems to be the MO when cooler/colder temperatures are forecast 10-12 days out. 7 day range goes up 5-7 degrees then at 4 or 5 days out, temps go back down and a tad cooler.

[Ntxw]

Crews are out pre-treating bridges on Dallas North Tollway and Sam Rayburn Tollway this afternoon. Jumping the gun a bit?

Same with NB 161 through Grand Prairie into Irving.

The tollways will do this when they expect a hard freeze.

[bubba hotep]

After the overnight trends, the 12z suite was a pretty positive change in direction.

[Portastorm]

Personally, I'm going to be watching the NAM closely. It does well with shallow Arctic airmasses in Texas. Looking over the 12z model suite, at the 72-hour mark for Austin (7 am Monday), the NAM is close in line with the GFS (mid 30s). Both the ICON and Euro were a bit colder (lower 30s).

I'm going to keep an eye on that as we move thru this weekend to see if the NAM does it thing. Or not.

[ElectricStorm]

Will be a close call if we get any snow or not up here in OK with this first system but that second one looks interesting. Can't get my hopes up though with how many times I've seen snow on the models at this range just to disappear as we get closer.

On a side note, 2024 is now confirmed to be the most active tornado year on record for Oklahoma with 152, surpassing 2019 (149). I didn't think it would get there but a record-shattering November proved me wrong. The year featured 17 significant tornadoes (EF2+), the most since 2011 (21). Also featured the first time there has been EF4 damage in the state since 2016 (both 2022 EF4s we're in TX, with EF3 damage in OK). Overall a very active and destructive year. Data found here:

https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-2024

[wxman57]

For those of you in the Houston area, here's a plot of all model temps. Note the EI-AIFS is the bold orange dashed line. It's forecasting temps into the lower 60s on Friday. It's generally the warmest model. Looks like the "AI" needs more "I". I'm expecting mid to upper 30s here in Houston, possibly a few sleet pellets.

Again, you may need to set your browser to allow my potentially dangerous images to appear. You'll be asked twice if you want to accept the high risk that you'll be by Heat Miser DNA.

https://wxman57.com/images/Models12ZJan3.jpg

[South Texas Storms]

Unbelievable...euro cranking out over 2 inches of rain across San Antonio. Imagine if we had enough cold to work with. My goodness. But despite the temps, we still need the rain as we're still in a significant drought.

Given the developing drought conditions here and Nina ... and watching system after system this past autumn underperform in the QPF department, I'm very skeptical of these amounts.

Yeah I agree although we really haven't had a system out of the SW like this (at least modeled) for quite some time. Most of our misses have been systems that miss us well to the north (cutters) or too flat. At least that's a different signal for the time being.

This. Can I just say, frozen precipitation or not, how nice it is to see a cut off low over Mexico modeled in the not too distant future. I honestly don't remember the last time we saw one...it's been way too long! We could really use a widespread heavy rain event in central Texas.

[Stratton23]

18z ICON is a tad bit colder for se texas at day 5 for se texas compared to 12z, 33 degrees in houston, some of thay cold rain would likely be snow, its extremely close

[txtwister78]

ICON continues to be the coldest of the models (outside of the CMC which usually is overdone) and tries to generate a little snow across Central Texas ahead of an impulse but core of the system still buried near the Baja 120 hours out. Perhaps a tad faster with progression but hard to tell with 18z limited run.

[bubba hotep]

18z ICON is a tad bit colder for se texas at day 5 for se texas compared to 12z, 33 degrees in houston, some of thay cold rain would likely be snow, its extremely close

18z ICON has a bit better look at H5 at 120 vs. 12z

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 i just compared 12z Icon to the 18z at 120 hours since the 18z stops at that, the 18z is more progressive and actually shifted more to the south and east compared to the 12z

[mmmmsnouts]

Crews are out pre-treating bridges on Dallas North Tollway and Sam Rayburn Tollway this afternoon. Jumping the gun a bit?

Obviously they are not getting their information from "trusted weather sources."

[orangeblood]

txtwister78 i just compared 12z Icon to the 18z at 120 hours since the 18z stops at that, the 18z is more progressive and actually shifted more to the south and east compared to the 12z

It’s closer to the Polar Jet, allowing upper level cold to pulled into the ULL. 12Z is too cutoff from it

18Z is what gives Texas the best chance at widespread frozen precip. 12Z Ukmet beginning to trend east as well

18z


12Z

[cheezyWXguy]

txtwister78 i just compared 12z Icon to the 18z at 120 hours since the 18z stops at that, the 18z is more progressive and actually shifted more to the south and east compared to the 12z

It’s closer to the Polar Jet, allowing upper level cold to pulled into the ULL. 12Z is too cutoff from it

18Z is what gives Texas the best chance at widespread frozen precip

18z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/conus/z500_anom/1735927200/1736359200-Db21reLoxEw.png

12Z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/conus/z500_anom/1735905600/1736359200-cz9Oq49y5q0.png

I like the better phasing with the main trough but would like to see the transit timing speed up a bit more. Seems like it’s headed in the right direction though.

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 i just compared 12z Icon to the 18z at 120 hours since the 18z stops at that, the 18z is more progressive and actually shifted more to the south and east compared to the 12z

Yup. You really want a faster system or one that can pull enough upper level cold in to help sustain snow vs cold rain.

[bubba hotep]

Kind of liking some of the trends on the 18z GFS, let's see if that makes any difference in the end.

[txtwister78]

One thing I'll say about the Euro is it does have a tendency to hang systems back before bringing them out and so hopefully the ICON is on to something with a faster progression. Wed night into early Thursday would probably be our best bet.

[txtwister78]

18z GFS looking a few degrees warmer and slower.