Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[vbhoutex]

I was looking at the radar this am and wondering if there was any snow reaching the ground in N Escambia, Santa Rosa or Okaloosa counties. IF the GFS verifies it looks like it would be historic for N FL.

[frigidice77]

What does the Gfs show?

[vbhoutex]

What does the Gfs show?

The GFS ensemble posted above shows 850mb temps below 0c well off the Gulf coast and precipitation falling which would probably be snow and it shows quite a bit of it in N FL. The particular time frame(13th) shown above has your area with plenty of rain but not frozen precip. That doesn't mean it won't happen in your area as it progresses East, but it may be tough since the low producing the wrap around will be moving NE and would be pulling the precip and cold air that way with it.

[frigidice77]

Oh.... Thats why it will be historic. How can it possibly snow in north florida but not georgia?

[vbhoutex]

Oh.... Thats why it will be historic. How can it possibly snow in north florida but not georgia?

That particular map above shows the Oc line to the West of where you live. Basically if you look at that map, areas to the N and W of the Oc line(the thick one)would be expected to have some form of frozen precipitation. Since where you live is East of that line you probably would not be having frozen precipitation. That is a basic explanation. There are more details involved, but that is the basics. Like I said above, that map is a look at one particular time frame so that is why the statement can be made that it would be rain in your area.

[Ntxw]

Those maps can be a little misleading as well. A lot of the qpf is shown that occurs 12 hours before that current still image (in this case between hour 108 and 120, the front is still back in MS at hour 108 so all of the precip between the two times is rain on the warm end) and does not necessarily show snow in Florida or the gulf coast. Much of the moisture depicted will have fallen well before the front in the form of rain and thunderstorms. That's not a live snapshot of the radar as many tend to confuse. Wxman has a good explanation thread of this.

[frigidice77]

Im interested in the wind and flurries will leave behind.. atlanta has flurries in their forecast. also does anyone have a clue how strong the winds will be.

[Dean4Storms]

Those maps can be a little misleading as well. A lot of the qpf is shown that occurs 12 hours before that current still image (in this case between hour 108 and 120, the front is still back in MS at hour 108 so all of the precip between the two times is rain on the warm end) and does not necessarily show snow in Florida or the gulf coast. Much of the moisture depicted will have fallen well before the front in the form of rain and thunderstorms. That's not a live snapshot of the radar as many tend to confuse. Wxman has a good explanation thread of this.

Exactly, that is not indicating snow all the way down to the Gulf. That is Precip. amounts shown within the time frame you indicated.

For sure though is the -0C line that will dig down into FL behind this front and strong winds accompanying the cold.

[frigidice77]

Is their any snow on the horizon or storms way out on the models. It seems the boards are really dead today.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is back to the extreme cold solution with teens reaching the Florida panhandle

[Ntxw]

Cold. One thing to note, 850mb temps aren't always the surface temps, they are only indicators. Here's a map of the coldest surface temps that I could find which was hour 72. I'm guessing hour 78 is daytime. If it were to be interpreted exactly as is, 20-25 for the panhandle and near 30 in central Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah but usually when you have low to mid 20s at the coast in the Florida panhandle, it usually always means teens inland in the Panhandle. Anytime the -10c line reaches Florida, teens are a good bet. Either way, the GFS is back on the cold train. It does seem to be short lived though.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am not surprised at all to see the GFS trending back to the colder solution. I mentioned this yesterday. I thought the Euro run last night would show a colder solutiion as well, but now I think we will see that model trend back to a colder bias in tonight' s run. We shall see. Looking at that latest run ,minimum temperatures in the teens in the interior coldest drainage areas across the panhandle and North Florida look very possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings of next week.

[wxman57]

Raw 12z GFS numbers for the FL panhandle are not very cold. I've noticed raw 2m GFS temps have been a good bit warmer than what was observed across the southeast. Here's a Pensacola meteogram from the 12Z GFS:

[Ivanhater]

Something seems really off on that diagram Wxman. While not at the surface, the 850mb freeze line extends close to Miami with the -10c line entering into the Florida panhandle, yet that diagram shows Pensacola never reaching the freeze mark.

[wxman57]

That's the actual 2m temp data. I plotted a meteogram using the web-based interface vs. my spreadsheet and it's the same - no freeze forecast. I didn't say it was correct, just stating the fact...

[Ntxw]

Yeah I noticed that too Wxman. That's why I stated earlier the 850mb temps don't always equate to surface temps. Though I do think it's a little warm biased in this case. If the last freeze was any indication, it should be below freezing at least in the Florida panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM is even colder...

-10c line pushing into the Gulf

[frigidice77]

Its not even gonna rain anymore in my area. The storm really did go farther to the north.

[wxman57]

18Z NAM forecasts a 2m temp of about 30 in Pensacola at midnight Monday night. That would suggest a low in the 20s: