Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Iceresistance]

I'm getting snowflakes now!

32°F

[869MB]

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

This really is unprecedented it seems. Is this mainly because of La Niña or something else? I’m hoping this winter isn’t a prelude to a horrific summer like 2012. It’s been so dry too.

Likely a manifestation of the severe -PDO since 2020.

You have to go back to September 2019 to find a month where the PDO was greater than 0.00. And 2015 was the last calendar year where every month’s index was greater than 0.00 from January to December. Pretty sad state of affairs for our region.

Though it doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things as of right now, but December’s PDO -1.01 index is the warmest it’s been since August 2021’s index of -0.95. This could be a trend in the right direction, but we won’t truly know for at least another 6 months to a year from now.

[Iceresistance]

This really is unprecedented it seems. Is this mainly because of La Niña or something else? I’m hoping this winter isn’t a prelude to a horrific summer like 2012. It’s been so dry too.

Likely a manifestation of the severe -PDO since 2020.

You have to go back to September 2019 to find a month where the PDO was greater than 0.00. And 2015 was the last calendar year where every month’s value was greater than 0.00 from January to December. Pretty sad state of affairs for our region.

December 2025's PDO index was +1.01, which is the least positive since August 2021

[869MB]

Likely a manifestation of the severe -PDO since 2020.

You have to go back to September 2019 to find a month where the PDO was greater than 0.00. And 2015 was the last calendar year where every month’s value was greater than 0.00 from January to December. Pretty sad state of affairs for our region.

December 2025's PDO index was +1.01, which is the least positive since August 2021

Yeah I just added that to my post above…I didn’t think anyone was still awake on the board right now.

[Iceresistance]

You have to go back to September 2019 to find a month where the PDO was greater than 0.00. And 2015 was the last calendar year where every month’s value was greater than 0.00 from January to December. Pretty sad state of affairs for our region.

December 2025's PDO index was +1.01, which is the least positive since August 2021

Yeah I just added that to my post above…I didn’t think anyone was still awake on the board right now.

I am, stupid primer paint smell

[HockeyTx82]

Where is everybody? The radar is indicating snow along the Red River. I'm sure it's not making it to the ground, but hey guys wake up, it's a start.

[TropicalTundra]

Where is everybody? The radar is indicating snow along the Red River. I'm sure it's not making it to the ground, but hey guys wake up, it's a start.

Unfortunately people could care less about virga.. personally I just like staring at the blues

[Brent]

Hey at least it's cold that's a start

Wow this winter has been so bad San Antonio is still doing freeze warnings!!! 2 weeks before February!!!

[DW5522]

I’m up close to the red river, in the deer stand with my kid and haven’t had anything making it to the ground yet. Radar says it’s right over us but still no luck.

[Brent]

From the NWS

There are hints in the long range guidance of a
pattern change late next week, potentially resulting in more
precip potential for the last week of January.

We can only hope at this point. That's still my big concern going forward no matter what the models show. I think there will be plenty of cold no doubt

[Ntxw]

If snow was to fall it will be later today once the band gets closer to I-20 and further east as it gains some traction. Still probably virga but who knows.

[rwfromkansas]

Radar does show stuff coming in. But no reports of any flakes.

Just happy to even see anything on radar.

[Brent]

It did surprise me a bit that I didn't have to squint into the lights here haha

Progress

[WacoWx]

MPing showing someone reporting snow east of Sherman.

[Brent]

Arkansas with elevation did overperform a bit

[Ntxw]

Looking ahead, I know we have had ongoing discussions about the next week or two but my scope is shifting to the Aleutian trough pattern the ending days of Jan and opening week of Feb. I've noted several times, in winter true Aleutian low patterns are often precursors to big cold dumps. As they send poleward heat flux to attack the PV and perturb the troposphere-stratosphere couplet, yes we would deal with some warmth as it happens prior. This would annotate a mid to late Feb unusual cold snap, potentially. I would not be surprised if the coldest air of the season was during this time period for some.

[Brent]

Looking ahead, I know we have had ongoing discussions about the next week or two but my scope is shifting to the Aleutian trough pattern the ending days of Jan and opening week of Feb. I've noted several times, in winter true Aleutian low patterns are often precursors to big cold dumps. As they send poleward heat flux to attack the PV and perturb the troposphere-stratosphere couplet, yes we would deal with some warmth as it happens prior. This would annotate a mid to late Feb unusual cold snap, potentially. I would not be surprised if the coldest air of the season was during this time period for some.

https://i.imgur.com/EHiMj0f.png

https://i.imgur.com/Kmju9j1.png

https://i.imgur.com/2rz5xQo.png

Yeah I've seen two different people here talk about this weekend just being a preview of things to come and I mean we're probably gonna have wind chills near zero tomorrow morning

I just hope there's more moisture when it happens. That's my bigger concern

[Harp.1]

Gfs showing a huge ice/ sleet storm for Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

GFS is pretty close to a phase of the jet streams, which would bring down the very cold air...it's very close.

[Stratton23]

Yeah everything is trending way colder today , i know its the JMA, but last nights run was absolutely insane, the 850 mb temperatures were outrageously cold