Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Cerlin]

Euro has consistently been too warm this winter and is by far being the least progressive of any of the major models thus far. I’m not putting any stock into it at this juncture.

Let me say, though, that I love seeing LIFE in the forum again. We added 4 pages really quickly and I’m excited to see how this system progresses.

Least progressive is definitely the UkMet, but I definitely think you will see something between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the trough.

Yeah, I think I tend to not classify the UkMET as a major model but that’s kind of a faulty categorization system on my end. I agree though, and a blend of the GFS and Euro is extremely favorable at this point. Especially with what the NAM is starting to show as well. Euro’s heights are also pretty good too, so there’s a lot of promising signals this far.

[TheProfessor]

Euro has consistently been too warm this winter and is by far being the least progressive of any of the major models thus far. I’m not putting any stock into it at this juncture.

Let me say, though, that I love seeing LIFE in the forum again. We added 4 pages really quickly and I’m excited to see how this system progresses.

Least progressive is definitely the UkMet, but I definitely think you will see something between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the trough.

Yeah, I think I tend to not classify the UkMET as a major model but that’s kind of a faulty categorization system on my end. I agree though, and a blend of the GFS and Euro is extremely favorable at this point. Especially with what the NAM is starting to show as well. Euro’s heights are also pretty good too, so there’s a lot of promising signals this far.

The UkMet is definitely more popular during the hurricane season,but a lot of my east coast friends have liked to used it in the winter as well. With pivotal coming out with far better graphics for the UkMet it's become even more prominent now.

[South Texas Storms]

Least progressive is definitely the UkMet, but I definitely think you will see something between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the trough.

Yeah, I think I tend to not classify the UkMET as a major model but that’s kind of a faulty categorization system on my end. I agree though, and a blend of the GFS and Euro is extremely favorable at this point. Especially with what the NAM is starting to show as well. Euro’s heights are also pretty good too, so there’s a lot of promising signals this far.

The UkMet is definitely more popular during the hurricane season,but a lot of my east coast friends have liked to used it in the winter as well. With pivotal coming out with far better graphics for the UkMet it's become even more prominent now.

Yeah I think the UKMET is the 2nd best global model behind the Euro right now. Pivotal Weather is becoming more and more awesome with the growing free parameters on their site.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, I think I tend to not classify the UkMET as a major model but that’s kind of a faulty categorization system on my end. I agree though, and a blend of the GFS and Euro is extremely favorable at this point. Especially with what the NAM is starting to show as well. Euro’s heights are also pretty good too, so there’s a lot of promising signals this far.

The UkMet is definitely more popular during the hurricane season,but a lot of my east coast friends have liked to used it in the winter as well. With pivotal coming out with far better graphics for the UkMet it's become even more prominent now.

Yeah I think the UKMET is the 2nd best global model behind the Euro right now. Pivotal Weather is becoming more and more awesome with the growing free parameters on their site.

If I had money I'd be throwing donations their way(and Levi because he's great as well.)

[Brent]

NAM is icy not snowy in DFW certainly the big snow is NW

the EPS went drier with most members a dusting to a half inch and oddly it looks like most of that comes from the later timeframe going into Thursday so does the main show Wednesday blank?

[missygirl810]

I am going to be about 35 miles northeast of Little Rock Arkansas for this and the local stations have not said a word about it coming here lol. Figures that I would not be in Celeste and will miss it lol.

[Ralph's Weather]

06Z GFS about the same really a but less progressive with the trough. This run hammers the Abilene area with well over a foot. If the surface cold is a tad underdone then areas much further east could see 6 inches. The foot totals will follow the peak vorticity but many could see 3 to 6 inches over a large chunk of the state from Midland to Texarkana.

[TheProfessor]

Had a pretty gnarly frost this morning, enough to turn most of the grass white. Might be the closest I get to snow.

[Ntxw]

System will be inland into the Pac NW/West coast this evening. Important model runs the 0z will be for any sig changes.

High wind warnings and watches are out for much of the Southwestern US including Vegas. Almost to the exact same effects as the 09 blizzard/storm where 40-70mph winds were recorded out there in the desert southwest. This could be the strongest winter storm in a long time.

[gpsnowman]

System will be inland into the Pac NW/West coast this evening. Important model runs the 0z will be for any sig changes.

High wind warnings and watches are out for much of the Southwestern US including Vegas. Almost to the exact same effects as the 09 blizzard/storm where 40-70mph winds were recorded out there in the desert southwest. This could be the strongest winter storm in a long time.

Get ready, this is shaping up to be a possible all-nighter Tuesday into Wednesday. I am hoping it is more of an early Wednesday morning start. We shall see.

[Jarodm12]

I told my mother that im not sure yet, but by tomorrow this will be locked in, and barring anything crazy or unexpected happening, winter storm watches should begin to go up by tomorrow evening (im in southern Oklahoma) and with the forecast winds, and the crazy snow/sleet totals showing up the word "blizzard " may start to appear, and i havent been this excited in so so long, it looks like a wide area of Texas and southern Oklahoma will see snow/sleet late Tuesday night and Wednesday, and its gonna be a wild ride, I hope so although I hope it comes in colder in the upper levels to limit the ice potential last thing we need is an inch of ice and 6 inches of snow

[stormlover2013]

Won’t he locked in till last second, models aren’t good with the cold down here and with winter weather

[EnnisTx]

Won’t he locked in till last second, models aren’t good with the cold down here and with winter weather

Don't see anything close to that far South.

[bubba hotep]

06z Euro and EPS are locked in on a winter storm across the Lubbock WFO area and don't really get much of anything into DFW but it does look like a decent cold rain event

[Texas Snow]

12 Z Nam still holding some snow out west at the end of the run. Looking at the surface maps and total accumulation looks like there may be a decent amount of sleet as well in its forecast

[Ralph's Weather]

System will be inland into the Pac NW/West coast this evening. Important model runs the 0z will be for any sig changes.

High wind warnings and watches are out for much of the Southwestern US including Vegas. Almost to the exact same effects as the 09 blizzard/storm where 40-70mph winds were recorded out there in the desert southwest. This could be the strongest winter storm in a long time.

Get ready, this is shaping up to be a possible all-nighter Tuesday into Wednesday. I am hoping it is more of an early Wednesday morning start. We shall see.

For me it looks like heavy rain Wed morning. A mix for the afternoon and ending as snow Wed night maybe into Thu morning.

[Jarodm12]

06z Euro and EPS are locked in on a winter storm across the Lubbock WFO area and don't really get much of anything into DFW but it does look like a decent cold rain event

I hear what you are saying, but im going to believe the nam and gfs and the icon and even the cmc over the euro there are too many models agreeing on this event, and the nam has not trended warmer infact its quickened the pace of the front, i dont think that it matters what the euro says, the name is king within 3 days

[cheezyWXguy]

In regard to the NAM, it appears the 6z trended more toward the gfs with a slightly more progressive and positively tilted trough, and the 12z went back closer to the 0z, but not quite.

What weirds me out about the euro is that it looks like the 6z NAM but shows temps 10 degrees warmer in north Texas. No wonder it’s not showing snow in dfw, but it does seem to be the warm outlier at this point. I guess this is why we shouldn’t get hung up on surface depictions yet.

[orangeblood]

GFS GFS GFS! Latest 12Z looks phenomenal for a massive direct hit on the metroplex....strong convective storms producing freezing rain and sleet transitioning to snow as the UL trough moves overhead. Latest German ICON also looks very similar as well. However Euro much further NW, probably safe to split the difference at this point. Heaviest axis between DFW and Wichita Falls attm

[Cerlin]

So, we’re 3-4 days out and the GFS is showing 14 inches for parts of the metroplex and the Euro is showing practically nothing...I’m used to the models disagreeing, especially these two, but I’ve never seen it differ so much.