Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Here's another meteogram for Austin, Portastorm.

[somethingfunny]

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B:

@BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/iyB2JWoY7i tolling major arctic attack Christmas week. GFS echoing this. Dec 22-27 temps on 12z run http://t.co/QpLcxlLfz1

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS Christmas morning temps with huge area more than 30 below normal.Would be 3rd coldest Christmas since 70s http://t.co/hmIbubF9lm

[weatherdude1108]

Here's another meteogram for Austin, Portastorm.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/ausgfsx12zdec11.gif

I'm planning to go to Houston on the 21st and not head back to Austin until the following weekend or so. Should I go ahead and shut the water off to my house to be safe? Don't have any pipes in the attic and the heater will be on in the low 60s. Just a little paranoid of the maps.

[wxman57]

I'm planning to go to Houston on the 21st and not head back to Austin until the following weekend or so. Should I go ahead and shut the water off to my house to be safe? Don't have any pipes in the attic and the heater will be on in the low 60s. Just a little paranoid of the maps.

You don't have to make that decision now, wait until you're about to leave then check back here. But if it IS going to get that cold, then you should shut off the water before you leave.

[ronyan]

One thing I've learned from wxman57 and other pro's on this board is to watch temps in the source region as we approach this potential arctic event.

Central Canada currently has a large pool of -20s but to really get frigid air into Texas the cross polar flow from Siberia will need to be established and bring some -40s and -50s into this region. By looks of the GFS this is the setup we will have with a monster ridge reaching up towards Alaska.


^This is the opinion of a weather amateur and doesn't represent an official forecast.

[TheProfessor]

Are there any signs of the southern jet becoming more active when the potential artic outbreak occurs?

[Portastorm]

I'm planning to go to Houston on the 21st and not head back to Austin until the following weekend or so. Should I go ahead and shut the water off to my house to be safe? Don't have any pipes in the attic and the heater will be on in the low 60s. Just a little paranoid of the maps.

You don't have to make that decision now, wait until you're about to leave then check back here. But if it IS going to get that cold, then you should shut off the water before you leave.

What?! The Weatherdude Weather Center is going to be left unmanned during a possible winter weather event in Austin?! Pshaw.

Wxman57 is absolutely right. You've got plenty of time to make that call. Best to get educated now on what you would need to do in the event of extreme cold and/or extended cold temps. Then, a day or two before you leave, you can examine the latest and make the decision.

[orangeblood]

Yikes!! Euro showing 60 deg F below normal entering lower 48, that is almost unprecedented. I think it's safe to say the models are coming together for a potential historic Arctic Outbreak in 8-10 days

[dhweather]

Cold in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, too:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx12zdec11.jpg

Dandy.

[wxman57]

Just saw Ryan Maue's tweet about the 10-day Canadian forecasting a large area of -50F temps in Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota on the 21st.

[BigB0882]

Just saw Ryan Maue's tweet about the 10-day Canadian forecasting a large area of -50F temps in Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota on the 21st.

Is that placing the brunt of the cold a little further east than the last batch?

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF 500mb Anomalies for day 10....Full fledged Arctic attack for much of the US



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Portastorm]

That is the kind of model map which you just look at ... stunned ... and say HOLY CRAP!!

[Tireman4]

Just saw Ryan Maue's tweet about the 10-day Canadian forecasting a large area of -50F temps in Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota on the 21st.

Wxman57, you are not going to like the rest of December sir.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

[Ntxw]

Just stunned. Got to reiterate we are seeing something out of the Pacific not seen since 1899. The threat is very real.

[ronyan]

Just saw Ryan Maue's tweet about the 10-day Canadian forecasting a large area of -50F temps in Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota on the 21st.

Wxman57, you are not going to like the rest of December sir.

He will get some decent biking weather from now through the early part of next week. But after that may be all downhill for wxman and temps.

[Portastorm]

That 500 MB is insane, Portastorm has that dream map on photoshop somewhere in his hard drive. Look at the connection to Siberia. How do temps look in Siberia around this time?

I have to admit ... if I'm drawing up my perfect 500mb map for Texas winter, that's pretty darn close! The only thing I'd add is a nice persistent, cutoff low in the desert Southwest.

[TheProfessor]

I know we are extremely far out, but as of right now do you guys think this is going a dry, ice, or snow event for the dfw area?