Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[joshskeety]

I think for you guys down in SE Texas, if this scenerio that the GFS is pushing verifies, we would need that artic air that is pushing in after the polar front is through to hold that cold air in place long enough to overtake that warm gulf air mass pushing up from that developing low over the gulf.. Where that low in the Gulf is and how long the cutoff low can hold together will be a deciding factor..

2 things have to happen.. Cutoff low remains in tact long enough to keep cold air in place until the artic air can move in, and hope the Gulf low doesn't dry slot you as its transfering energy..

I am pulling for ya though!!!

[Ntxw]

Anything possible for North Texas?

[joshskeety]

If the GFS is right there could be some snow if your future.. Just to far away and the GFS is just all over the place right now to say for sure...

[somethingfunny]

As it gets closer I'm feeling like this isn't worth getting worked up about. It's not going to be cold enough.

[Ntxw]

You're probably right but it's been awhile since anything substantial has shown up on the models again and again for Texas. Fun to look at and see what you can make out of it lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z ECMWF continues to show a very chilly look across a good chunk of the USA (including the southern plains and Texas) by mid/late next week...

Wed: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Thurs: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Fri: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Sat: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Sun: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[joshskeety]

is that yesterday's 0z run.. i dont see todays up yet...

[iorange55]

That's todays http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!/

[richtrav]

I feel compelled to respond despite the fact that the tenor of my response will be predictable.

No one (this year so far) has mentioned 1989. Last year ... yep, it happened and the actual weather did not happen. So be it. The discussion and debate provided entertainment and education for many of us.

So, all of this being said, how about if you add something of value to this thread instead of poking at folks. Tell us what you think of the GFS and Euro runs long term?

Oh wow, I do seem to have hit a nerve here. Yes it's true, I do find it slightly humorous that every year someone starts crying Chicken Little about an upcoming doom and gloom scenario and it just doesn't pan out. And all I can say is "Thank Heavens"!!!! Not this year of course (too early), but I can pretty much set my watch around late December by the alarmists. I have a long memory - I still vividly recall the misery of December 1989 and have absolutely no desire to see it again - so yes I easily remember last year, and the year before that, and the year before that one. Jan 2005 was particularly frenzied, stirred up in no small part by Joe Bastardi and some Japanese computer model that had the MOACF coming to TX. How quickly people forget. It starts to get hard to take this board seriously when people keep saying the sky is falling over and over, and even if 1 were to pan out in the next few years I'm still going to remember the 99 others that didn't (though it would be a cold comfort - literally). Which brings up my next point.

A topic which I do find extremely interesting, and one that few seem to want to talk about in this forum, is that the frequency and severity of Arctic outbreaks into the lower 48, particularly the southern states, has diminished substantially over the past two decades. In Texas we used to get freezes in the 6-10 degree range in the DFW area, teens in Central Texas and mid-20s in deep South Texas about every 4-5 years. It's been nearly 20 years now that even a "normally abnormal" outbreak has occurred, much less a generational event. 1996 came the closest but I can still think of a half-dozen cold outbreaks off the top of my head from 1982 to 1990 that were more severe, and 1996 was nearly a decade and a half ago. But yet it seems to be full steam ahead here, with people seemingly oblivious to the warming trend that's been ongoing for years now, though it does appear to have slowed or stalled (I suppose you can call going from 0 extreme cold snaps in one winter to 0 in the next a "stalling")

And sure I like to poke a little fun at these folks (heck I like poking fun at myself too), but on a serious note I do find it a bit strange though that some people apparently seem to root on, or at least get very excited, over an event that will do little more than bring misery and economic hardship onto an area just so they can see some white flakes falling out of the sky. This is especially the case in deep South Texas, where a freeze has much more disastrous consequences that farther north. I can't say I've seen anyone rooting for that 100-year drought or record-breaking heat wave even though they're just as meteorologically remarkable (and as much a part of nature), so yeah I find it strangely morbid when people appear to get excited over even more destructive events like catastrophic hurricanes or extreme cold snaps. Sure for weather weenies they may be fascinating but for real people who have livelihoods that involve the weather they can really SUCK, and suck bigtime.

OK, enough venting, let the games resume. I see we're at about one week out now from the next disappointment. And don't worry about me, I get the same nervousness every year when hurricane season is upon us too, I've just learned to deal with it, if it happens it happens. In a kind of sicko way a part of me actually wants to see a moderate freeze in South Texas this year, just to see what all will survive in the yard and what won't. Gosh I can't believe I just said that, I should order myself to 50 self-inflicted lashes for even thinking such vile thoughts!

[iorange55]

I feel compelled to respond despite the fact that the tenor of my response will be predictable.

No one (this year so far) has mentioned 1989. Last year ... yep, it happened and the actual weather did not happen. So be it. The discussion and debate provided entertainment and education for many of us.

So, all of this being said, how about if you add something of value to this thread instead of poking at folks. Tell us what you think of the GFS and Euro runs long term?

Oh wow, I do seem to have hit a nerve here. Yes it's true, I do find it slightly humorous that every year someone starts crying Chicken Little about an upcoming doom and gloom scenario and it just doesn't pan out. And all I can say is "Thank Heavens"!!!! Not this year of course (too early), but I can pretty much set my watch around late December by the alarmists. I have a long memory - I still vividly recall the misery of December 1989 and have absolutely no desire to see it again - so yes I easily remember last year, and the year before that, and the year before that one. Jan 2005 was particularly frenzied, stirred up in no small part by Joe Bastardi and some Japanese computer model that had the MOACF coming to TX. How quickly people forget. It starts to get hard to take this board seriously when people keep saying the sky is falling over and over, and even if 1 were to pan out in the next few years I'm still going to remember the 99 others that didn't (though it would be a cold comfort - literally). Which brings up my next point.

A topic which I do find extremely interesting, and one that few seem to want to talk about in this forum, is that the frequency and severity of Arctic outbreaks into the lower 48, particularly the southern states, has diminished substantially over the past two decades. In Texas we used to get freezes in the 6-10 degree range in the DFW area, teens in Central Texas and mid-20s in deep South Texas about every 4-5 years. It's been nearly 20 years now that even a "normally abnormal" outbreak has occurred, much less a generational event. 1996 came the closest but I can still think of a half-dozen cold outbreaks off the top of my head from 1982 to 1990 that were more severe, and 1996 was nearly a decade and a half ago. But yet it seems to be full steam ahead here, with people seemingly oblivious to the warming trend that's been ongoing for years now, though it does appear to have slowed or stalled (I suppose you can call going from 0 extreme cold snaps in one winter to 0 in the next a "stalling")

And sure I like to poke a little fun at these folks (heck I like poking fun at myself too), but on a serious note I do find it a bit strange though that some people apparently seem to root on, or at least get very excited, over an event that will do little more than bring misery and economic hardship onto an area just so they can see some white flakes falling out of the sky. This is especially the case in deep South Texas, where a freeze has much more disastrous consequences that farther north. I can't say I've seen anyone rooting for that 100-year drought or record-breaking heat wave even though they're just as meteorologically remarkable (and as much a part of nature), so yeah I find it strangely morbid when people appear to get excited over even more destructive events like catastrophic hurricanes or extreme cold snaps. Sure for weather weenies they may be fascinating but for real people who have livelihoods that involve the weather they can really SUCK, and suck bigtime.

OK, enough venting, let the games resume. I see we're at about one week out now from the next disappointment. And don't worry about me, I get the same nervousness every year when hurricane season is upon us too, I've just learned to deal with it, if it happens it happens. In a kind of sicko way a part of me actually wants to see a moderate freeze in South Texas this year, just to see what all will survive in the yard and what won't. Gosh I can't believe I just said that, I should order myself to 50 self-inflicted lashes for even thinking such vile thoughts!

Your high and mighty horse is well high and mighty huh? I don't see anyone crying chicken here. People are reading the models, and explaining what they mean, no one is saying this is going to happen, or that's going to happen. Out of all the weather boards out there this one is probably the most skeptical of all of them. Just because 5 days out a model shows a big snowstorm over us, and we repeat it doesn't mean we're "crying chicken" we're simply saying the model is showing it right now. I've never seen anybody say that something is definitely going to happen. Maybe you have us confused with people on the Accuweather forums.



I can see you have A LOT of skepticism, and you're tired of models showing something, and it never happening. I understand that, but just cause we repeat what the models are showing doesn't mean we're crying chicken. Whatever that means I personally have never seen a chicken cry. And yes I do root for huge snowstorms of course the damage they can do is terrible, but one it never really gets that bad here anymore, and two it's going to happen whether we root for it, or not. So I'd rather see a huge snowstorm then not. You play a good game though. "I see we're at about one week out now from the next disappointment" good statement. It's good in two ways if it doesn't happen you can say "I told you so" but if it does happen you can just say "finally got lucky, what's that one out a million?"



There is no point of being that negative. Part of the fun for me is the build up to it whether it happens, or not. Following the models is almost just as fun. This is a forum to DISCUSS THE WINTER, and we're discussing the winter, weird huh?. No one is guaranteeing anything.

[joshskeety]

well, Im not going to get into an argument about what I want it to do or what it will do.. I also don't wishcast, but I will argue model output though and models are all we have to go by..

Anyhow.. I just got done going over both the ECMWF and the latest 6z GFS and NAM runs..

The ECMWF for once has come full circle into the cut off low theory now.. First time in a while I have seen the ECMWF play catchup to the GFS 0z run..

There are still some things to be worked out because although the ECMWF has the 500 where the 0z run of the GFS does, it still keeps dewpoints low even though it does the exact same thing which is cut off he cold polar air from the northern jet.. WEIRD.. For instance.. Where I live in Abilene, it has Dewpoints down to -10 to about -12 C, which would that with Surface temps in the upper 20's/low 30's humidity would be about 75%.. Now, Im not saying it can't snow at 75% humidity, but it tells one issue.. VIRGA..Humidity levels at 850mb on the ECMWF are much higher than the 1000mb layer.. Which can only tell me that the radar will be full of moisture, but the ground will be without much..

What is weird is I can't imagine that because at the same time it shows wetbulbs of 27 degrees which just doesn't pan out.. Not saying it can't or won't, but the model to me still isn't fully decided on what this storm is going to do..

As far as the 6z GFS runs, I have always bought into the theory of the 6z and 18z runs being off.. The 0z had the 500 cutoff low starting in Arizona, then heading due southeast into northern Mexico.. Now, its not impossible, that solution, to me, living in Texas for over 2/3rds of my life, its IMPROBABLE.. So now the 6z run moves it starting in the same place, but now getting caught up into the North Jet because it heads northeast.. The ECMWF has it right in the middle..

But here is what I can see right now.. I don't work for the NWS, but if I did, my discussions would enter a strong possibiliy of snow from most of west Texas, Central Texas, North Cental Texas and North Texas.. Could be a dusting, could be a whopper.. Still WAY too close to call.. Tomorrow night, the NAM will begin to pick up this storm on the 0z run and lets see what happens before we talk about snow totals and stuff like that..

[Portastorm]

First and most importantly, Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow S2Kers! We have a lot to be thankful for in this great nation of ours, including the freedom to have a forum like this to debate, discuss, and enjoy the weather! Hope y'all have a great day with friends and family!!

Secondly, here are some interesting early morning snippets from NWSFOs around Texas:

Amarillo:
THE BOTTOM MAY FALL OUT OF THE THERMOMETERS BY
THE MID/LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO
DISLODGE AND MOVE SOUTH...WITH THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT BUT...LIKE THE DGEX AND GFS...IS SHOWING HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY. I LOWERED TEMPS BY THIS TIME BUT NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LOWER
TEMPS FURTHER AS THE SCENARIO BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

Midland/Odessa:
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER BLAST OF COLDER AIR IF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ON THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT.

Austin/San Antonio:
THIS MAKES THE PERIODS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE AREA. DRYING ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MORNING PACKAGE AS THE RUNS
SHOWING A COLD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN APPEARED TO BE
OUTLIERS FROM EARLIER RUNS. THE ONE CONSISTENCY IS THAT COLD AIR
TRANSPORT OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SUPPORT A COOL TO COLD WEEK
NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP WAS LEFT IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT A DRY FORECAST REMAINS MORE PROBABLE. A
LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SPLIT FLOW, AND A COOL AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED
PERIOD.

Lubbock:
OVERALL IDEA IS FOR THIS LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING RE-INTENSIFICATION BY MIDWEEK.
WILL NOT HANG MY HAT ON ANY ONE SOLUTION THIS FAR OUT AND INSTEAD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT BEFORE AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK.

Fort Worth:
THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO THROW VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIOS AT NORTH TEXAS...THE LATEST BEING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THE NEXT FRIDAY. YES...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN WINTER
WEATHER CAN HAPPEN...BUT AS EACH EVENT GETS CLOSER THE THE GFS
HAS MODERATED. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY IN
ITS SOLUTIONS...AND UNTIL THAT CHANGES I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF. LIKE THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF...EVENTUALLY THE GFS WILL
PROVE CORRECT AND WE WILL HAVE AN EVENT...BUT THERE WILL HAVE TO
BE A CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS BEFORE I WILL BELIEVE IT.

[srainhoutx]

Happy Thanksgiving folks.

[snow and ice]

The pattern starting next week through at least mid-December will continue be favorable for cold and possible winter weather.

6z Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f240.html

[wxman22]

The 12z GFS is still showing the cold core low scenario... For what its worth the GFS was the one model that predicted the event last year days in advance.









Very interesting lets see if it keeps this through the weekend.

[Portastorm]

The 12z GFS would mean some light snow/sleet for Austin between midnight Monday and 7 am Tuesday morning by my reckoning. Nice!

[srainhoutx]

GFS continues the trend to a colder pattern beyond the system early next week as well. What is probably more important to note is the amount of snow cover the GFS suggests falling across the Plains and S Canada. I also notice the STJ activity looks to continue as well. The stepping down (Colder AIr Masses) trend continues and that will be the key in longer range chances for wintry precip across TX IMHO.

[joshskeety]

12z GFS bringing things back and ECMWF data coming down now, but up to 72h very similar.. Wow.. This may actually happen.. Still skeptial though..

[joshskeety]

Wow 96h, the ECMWF and GFS for this storm are almost IDENTICAL..



i can't believe it...

[joshskeety]

And the 120h says.. YOUR CRAZY GFS!! hahaha I knew it couldnt last..

ECMWF shows cold air goes bye bye very quickly.. While at 120h GFS shows cold air sticking in place..

I remember back in the day being told that the ECMWF always has problems with 850mb temps and cut off 500's.. I wonder if that is still the case..

hmmm

Oh well.. Stll not the best set up, but West Central Texas gets 2-4 inches, while West Texas gets 4-6 inches with this setup..