Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

Why are we still hoping for the GFS to verify this winter? It has been terrible for the South and Southeast. Stop looking at it beyond 72. The Euro has been much better and conservative for this area and thus more accurate. The GFS has cried wolf many times this year and failed miserably for the SouthEast. It can not even get the old "even a broken clock is right twice a day" scenario right.

I understand the Euro is now showing an arctic plunge.

Sooner or later the cold air will be coming, all that frigid air up in Alaska and Canada will at some point spill southward. For all we know the GFS could not be cold enough come mid Jan.

[Brent]

OMG OMG OMG!







*dies*

[vbhoutex]

OMG OMG OMG!







*dies*

PLEASE, PLEASE , PLEASE!!!!!!! Not you Brent, the models verifying or even better moving what is shown as far as temps another 100 miles south and holding the precip in our area for a while. Hey!! A man can dream can't he?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So is that basically showing a massive ice storm or snow storm for Louisiana? I know it will change so not even going to think about the possibilities.

[Brent]

So is that basically showing a massive ice storm or snow storm for Louisiana? I know it will change so not even going to think about the possibilities.

It's showing a massive snowstorm in the Northern half of the state.

But it's pretty much gone on the 6z and 12z, big surprise. Still a storm but much warmer.

[wxman22]

The 12z GFS....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216m.gif

It also shows a cold core low...

[PTrackerLA]

Hmmm a cold core low....another snowman this winter?

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated tonight that we will only get a glancing blow of this arctic air - nothing big.

[Stormcenter]

I believe they said the same thing in early Dec. of last year before we had the snow event in SE Texas and LA.

Local met stated tonight that we will only get a glancing blow of this arctic air - nothing big.

[severe]

I believe they said the same thing in early Dec. of last year before we had the snow event in SE Texas and LA.

Local met stated tonight that we will only get a glancing blow of this arctic air - nothing big.

And they sure didn't hint that we would get 3-4-5 and more inches of snow. Causing the Sam Houston, Fred Hartman bridges, plus the East Sam Houston toll road and Hwy 225 to close.

[jinftl]

Along the same lines, if you had told someone when it snowed in Houston and New Orleans this past December that they would be flirting with 80 deg (or exceeding) temps by Christmas and New Years, people would have scoffed. That's the part about weather that is so fascinating...never know what will happen!

I believe they said the same thing in early Dec. of last year before we had the snow event in SE Texas and LA.

Local met stated tonight that we will only get a glancing blow of this arctic air - nothing big.

And they sure didn't hint that we would get 3-4-5 and more inches of snow. Causing the Sam Houston, Fred Hartman bridges, plus the East Sam Houston toll road and Hwy 225 to close.

[severe]

Along the same lines, if you had told someone when it snowed in Houston and New Orleans this past December that they would be flirting with 80 deg (or exceeding) temps by Christmas and New Years, people would have scoffed. That's the part about weather that is so fascinating...never know what will happen!

I agree 100%.
Not knocking the model Gurus, because I believe it does give a good indication of things that may come. But I believe and I'll always believe that weather will never be an exact science.
Too many variables, anomalies that can throw the best of models for a loop.
I love the unpredictable nature of weather.

[Stormcenter]

Actually some of the the models did see the big Christmas warm-up 2 weeks out.

Along the same lines, if you had told someone when it snowed in Houston and New Orleans this past December that they would be flirting with 80 deg (or exceeding) temps by Christmas and New Years, people would have scoffed. That's the part about weather that is so fascinating...never know what will happen!

I agree 100%.
Not knocking the model Gurus, because I believe it does give a good indication of things that may come. But I believe and I'll always believe that weather will never be an exact science.
Too many variables, anomalies that can throw the best of models for a loop.
I love the unpredictable nature of weather.

[Ivanhater]

Major Arctic outbreak!

[Brent]

12z Euro buries the Southeast followed by brutal cold. GFS has the brutal cold but not much snow.

Much nicer out today. Not really cold but the wind is biting.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro buries the Southeast followed by brutal cold. GFS has the brutal cold but not much snow.

Much nicer out today. Not really cold but the wind is biting.

Where is the snow falling on the Euro?

[PTrackerLA]

I'm just wondering if we're ever going to have a hard freeze this winter. We've had snow, numerous light freezes to around 30, but I don't think we've even reached the 20's yet which is odd.

[gatorcane]

I'm just wondering if we're ever going to have a hard freeze this winter. We've had snow, numerous light freezes to around 30, but I don't think we've even reached the 20's yet which is odd.

based on ECMWF and GFS trends the cold front poised to sweep through the Eastern CONUS and SE US out around 144-168 hours or so would be the coldest air so far this season and you may just get into the 20s.....at one point the GFS was forecasting highs in the mid 40s for parts of central florida....albeit the run was over 144 hours out with not the greatest accuracy.

Check out this amplified trough as shown by 12Z ECMWF Wow:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9010712!!/

What's interesting to note is that this trough is not ephemeral. The ECMWF wants to keep a deep trough around the Eastern CONUS out through 240 hours albeit not quite as amplified but very cold for most of the Eastern US nonetheless...

indeed the much anticipated change in the long-wave pattern for mid January timeframe is starting to unfold as I had predicted back in December. I had originally slated the Jan. 6 - 15 timeframe, and it looks like I was a bit too fast on my prediction.

but hey its January isn't it!

[Brent]

12z Euro buries the Southeast followed by brutal cold. GFS has the brutal cold but not much snow.

Much nicer out today. Not really cold but the wind is biting.

Where is the snow falling on the Euro?

I haven't seen the maps but I know from Mississippi eastward to the Carolinas at least. Not sure how far south it goes.

Just across in Georgia:

Tuesday...Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow. Windy. Highs in the mid 40s.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain or snow. Lows around 20.

NWS Birmingham:

ONE LITTLE TIDBIT...TUESDAY LOOKS VERY INTERESTING. COLD AIR WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE 12Z
GFS SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HMMM....SNOW POSSIBLY? WE ALL KNOW HOW IT
GOES...TOO EARLY TO TELL. SO NOT GETTING MY HOPES UP YET.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SURE.

from James Spann:

ARCTIC AIR INVASION NEXT WEEK: Confidence continues to grow in the idea of the coldest air so far this season reaching Alabama next week. The Arctic front will pass through Monday, and by Tuesday we are expecting highs only in the low to mid 30s with an icy north wind. A few sprinkles or flurries could accompany the front, but nothing really significant. Don’t be shocked if we reach the 10 to 15 degree range by Wednesday morning. The GFS MOS won’t be able to handle this kind of shallow cold air.

The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a band of freezing rain developing across the Deep South on Thursday and Friday of next week, with could set up a nasty icing situation for somebody around here. Once again, this is no forecast; we won’t be able to really handle this with confidence until the end of this week. The screaming message is that some very cold air will settle into Alabama by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with some potential for wintry precipitation issues by Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned….

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm just wondering if we're ever going to have a hard freeze this winter. We've had snow, numerous light freezes to around 30, but I don't think we've even reached the 20's yet which is odd.

based on ECMWF and GFS trends the cold front poised to sweep through the Eastern CONUS and SE US out around 144-168 hours or so would be the coldest air so far this season and you may just get into the 20s.....at one point the GFS was forecasting highs in the mid 40s for parts of central florida....albeit the run was over 144 hours out with not the greatest accuracy.

Check out this amplified trough as shown by 12Z ECMWF Wow:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9010712!!/

What's interesting to note is that this trough is not ephemeral. The ECMWF wants to keep a deep trough around the Eastern CONUS out through 240 hours albeit not quite as amplified but very cold for most of the Eastern US nonetheless...

indeed the much anticipated change in the long-wave pattern for mid January timeframe is starting to unfold as I had predicted back in December. I had originally slated the Jan. 6 - 15 timeframe, and it looks like I was a bit too fast on my prediction.

but hey its January isn't it!

Today's 12z GFS is still showing a day with highs in the mid 40s for central Florida next week.