Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[JonathanBelles]

WOW!!! wasnt expecting the freezing line to be south of Miami!

That is the 850mb freezing line..not the surface freezing line..but yes, even still that would be quite an event. It is not often that the 850mb temperature falls to 0C or below over Miami and Key West.

Yes, I knew that but still, I didnt expect it.

[Ivanhater]

Well my God...at least everyday for the past 4 days or so the GFS has been showing snow in the deep south around the Jan 2nd 3rd time frame...this time is crazy showing a major artic outbreak in about 9 days...but again unlikely...but fun to watch here in the deep south!

[jinftl]

Fun to watch for sure...but don't tell the CPC...outlook is trending for above normal temps in the south




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

Well my God...at least everyday for the past 4 days or so the GFS has been showing snow in the deep south around the Jan 2nd 3rd time frame...this time is crazy showing a major artic outbreak in about 9 days...but again unlikely...but fun to watch here in the deep south!

[MiamiensisWx]

How bout Please read my first post...I said dont post comments about this changing back and forth..I know this..so I dont need to be reminded ...No need to post within a 100 hours...thats not the point of this thread...please read before posting...thanks anyway latest gfs again showing possible snow on the 1st...fun to watch

I apologize for my mistake. I missed that portion of the thread title. Thanks.

Call it what you want but I was out in the snow and 9 months later I lost my home. Yes, it's very rare indeed but certainly not an illusion by any means of the imagination. I was here!

Now, please lighten up. It was stated in the original post that it would probably change several times over the next 10 days but was cool to see. No one here said that it was etched in stone and frankly most here in the deep south find it a bit exciting and funny because of it being such a rarity IF it were to pan out.

I said the correlation between Gulf coast snowfall and TC landfalls was an illusion. Obviously, your observations were correct, but it does not imply a correlation exists with respect to snow and hurricane strikes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fun to watch for sure...but don't tell the CPC...outlook is trending for above normal temps in the south




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

Well my God...at least everyday for the past 4 days or so the GFS has been showing snow in the deep south around the Jan 2nd 3rd time frame...this time is crazy showing a major artic outbreak in about 9 days...but again unlikely...but fun to watch here in the deep south!

lol. Yeah, and a week ago they were showing the same thing..and look where we are now. I had a low of 27.7F this morning and it looks like the next 7+ days will feature near or below normal temperatures down here in TX. Overall, the CPC outlooks have not been very reliable this fall/winter (IMO).

[southerngale]

NO! No snow for the gulf coast! Last time that happened and snow accumulated the gc was slammed by 2 horrific hurricanes. Not that I got any accumulation (but i didn't get slammed by either hurricane). I'd be happy for some flurries though

Well, I just got flurries and no real accumulation like many other areas, and still got slammed by a horrific hurricane. I'll take the snow accumulation this time. One large package, please.

[Ivanhater]

How bout Please read my first post...I said dont post comments about this changing back and forth..I know this..so I dont need to be reminded ...No need to post within a 100 hours...thats not the point of this thread...please read before posting...thanks anyway latest gfs again showing possible snow on the 1st...fun to watch

I apologize for my mistake. I missed that portion of the thread title. Thanks.

Call it what you want but I was out in the snow and 9 months later I lost my home. Yes, it's very rare indeed but certainly not an illusion by any means of the imagination. I was here!

Now, please lighten up. It was stated in the original post that it would probably change several times over the next 10 days but was cool to see. No one here said that it was etched in stone and frankly most here in the deep south find it a bit exciting and funny because of it being such a rarity IF it were to pan out.

I said the correlation between Gulf coast snowfall and TC landfalls was an illusion. Obviously, your observations were correct, but it does not imply a correlation exists with respect to snow and hurricane strikes.

It was in my post not the title..Apology accepted

[Ivanhater]

NO! No snow for the gulf coast! Last time that happened and snow accumulated the gc was slammed by 2 horrific hurricanes. Not that I got any accumulation (but i didn't get slammed by either hurricane). I'd be happy for some flurries though

Well, I just got flurries and no real accumulation like many other areas, and still got slammed by a horrific hurricane. I'll take the snow accumulation this time. One large package, please.

For me , we got slammed by Ivan in September...Snow in December...then Dennis a few months after...crazy weather then..

[jinftl]

it does serve as a healthy balancer though to outlier runs of the GFS which have showed ridiculous cold snaps at one time or another hitting the gulf....like with anything....keep an eye on the trends....

Fun to watch for sure...but don't tell the CPC...outlook is trending for above normal temps in the south




http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

Well my God...at least everyday for the past 4 days or so the GFS has been showing snow in the deep south around the Jan 2nd 3rd time frame...this time is crazy showing a major artic outbreak in about 9 days...but again unlikely...but fun to watch here in the deep south!

lol. Yeah, and a week ago they were showing the same thing..and look where we are now. I had a low of 27.7F this morning and it looks like the next 7+ days will feature near or below normal temperatures down here in TX. Overall, the CPC outlooks have not been very reliable this fall/winter (IMO).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checking raw GFS numbers on PPV AccuWx site, while forecast 850 mb temps in North Florida get near -15ºC, surface temps even in JAX and TLH stay about 3ºC, so not sure about snow.

Even MCO, far from the water, stays close to 10º for mornng lows while 850 mb temps below freezing.



Not that GFS is right anyway, but for a Peninsular state surrounded by warm water, (same with Long Island, NY, surrounded by cooler, but still warm water early season) 850 mb freezing line isn't a guarantor of snow when it precips.

[Ivanhater]

Just checking raw GFS numbers on PPV AccuWx site, while forecast 850 mb temps in North Florida get near -15ºC, surface temps even in JAX and TLH stay about 3ºC, so not sure about snow.

Even MCO, far from the water, stays close to 10º for mornng lows while 850 mb temps below freezing.



Not that GFS is right anyway, but for a Peninsular state surrounded by warm water, (same with Long Island, NY, surrounded by cooler, but still warm water early season) 850 mb freezing line isn't a guarantor of snow when it precips.

Thats true..but some sort of wintry precip would be viable in the gfs runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, I didn't check P'Cola, but with temps near 40ºF, unless the precip was coming down hard, snow would probably melt on the way, I'd guess. From personal experience as a child on Long Island, around 36ºF was usually the limit for snow.


Of course, NY area was usually almost saturated with an onshore wind when snow changed to rain, evaporational cooling of melting snow falling into bone dry air might help a few flakes make it.


Like to hear a Pro Met give any known rules of thumb about precip rates, surface temps and dewpoint for winter precip.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ed Mahmoud - - The GFS surface temperatures are usually, from what I have observed, not as good for the FL peninsula in the long range. We should wait until we get closer to the actual event before we determine the possible snow areas for Florida (and that is IF we even get to that point), because the surface temperature output will likely fluctuate a good bit between now and then. Temperatures do not necessarily need to be near freezing for snow to fall though. One important event to keep in mind is "rain/flurry mix" that the Orlando area saw last November with temperatures as warm as the middle 40s. That event proved that with low enough thincknesses and cold enough upper levels, snow flakes can survive warm surface air. In fact, snow has even been reported with ground temperatures as high as near 50F in the past over in some of the mountainous regions of the west.

[JonathanBelles]

Especially in Florida, Ive heard from people that have lived here a long time that it can snow above 40°.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There were as a real hard freeze, December 83, and a frost in February or early March 1984, IIRC, when I was living in Orlando, FL 32813.

[PTPatrick]

Oddly enough, in 2004 on Christmasit snowed lightly for a good part of the afternoon here on the bayou....it was around 34...but 9:00 in the evening, the temp was 29 and it turned to freezing rain.

[Ivanhater]

18z run hot off the press..again showing snow for the deep south in about 9 days...

[Patrick99]

Miami AFD is riding with above-normal temps through next weekend. No mention of any potential Arctic chill in the extended.

[jinftl]

At least for the last few weeks (actually for most of Fall in Southeast), I have to respectfully disagree that the CPC outlooks have been unreliable

....look at temp anomalies (link below)for the last 2 weeks.... the prediction of above normal temps in the south has been right on point...and that pattern seems much more likely to persist (compared to say a GFS run or two showing snow in Orlando in 9 days when the 7-day local forecast shows temps in the 70s/80s for the next 7 days...the GFS that far out has been consistently much colder than actual temps turned out to be)...not as exciting a headline i realize..but every cool front can't be 'epic!!!'


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/us-weekly.php?year=2007&month=12&sat=15&submit_form=Submit&_submit_check=1#tanom

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro shows an interesting looking storm in Plains, but no snow in South in 10 days.





Now, if that still looks like that in 3 days, maybe a January Tornado Outbreak thread may be called for.