TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[southerngale]

G'afternoon. New to the board with a question. What's up with the NWS LCH forecast?
The latest does not have SE TX going below freezing for the next 7 days. How can there be such a discrepancy or are we just far enough east to miss it?

Hi...welcome to Storm2k.

Actually, they do have a lot of SE TX going below freezing, for lows. Their temps have been way too high though, and they have slowly been dropping them the last few days. They're still a lot higher than Houston NWS and KFDM though. They appear to be just following a couple of models, even though those models have been handling this shallow Arctic air poorly all along.



Wanna see something funny?

Click on the forecast for Silsbee:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

Now throw a rock across the street, go pick it up, and you're now in Lumberton. Check out the forecast there:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

[Tamora]

This is really bad I think.... We have heavy rain here in Cedar Hill, and are now at 31 degrees. Ice is now glazing trees and vehicles. Ice has glazed our satellite tv dish and is disrupting the singal somewhat. If this amount of rain keeps up, I have a feeling power is going to become an issue.

I didn't think about the satellite dish freezing!

we had some ice pellets fall when we had a huge downpour. I have 2 inches in my gauge from yesterday afternoon. My daughter emptied it yesterday when we got home and we had 3/4 of an inch it in. I haven't seen rain lilke this since last spring break when DFW got hit with all that rain.

OHH and I forgot to introduce my self. I am a major lurker... but with all the excitement over the weather, I had to come out of lurkdom and join the fun!

[Johnny]

Well folks, we have been begging for wintry precip and it looks like we are going to get it, and then some....in a bad way. I'm pretty much prepared. I've got plenty of propane, water and food. If I run out of food I will just walk to my pond and catch a bunch of crappie.

BTW, did anyone read the latest from Jeff? The picture he paints brings us back to 1997.

[DallasTX]

Still a non-event in NW DFW.

Light drizzle, temp approx 33-34 degrees, rain ending from the west. Looks like the first tround will spare this area. I'm about to head out and run some errands.

See what tonight brings if the moisture can return when the second shot of cold air comes. This first shot just didnt affect this area like TX points further west and north.

[Diva]

Wanna see something funny?

Click on the forecast for Silsbee:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

Now throw a rock across the street, go pick it up, and you're now in Lumberton. Check out the forecast there:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

That's pretty wacky southerngale!

[ROCK]

Any update from JB this afternoon?

[JonathanBelles]

Wanna see something funny?

Click on the forecast for Silsbee:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

Now throw a rock across the street, go pick it up, and you're now in Lumberton. Check out the forecast there:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

wow, that is weird.

[TexasStooge]

Wanna see something funny?

Click on the forecast for Silsbee:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

Now throw a rock across the street, go pick it up, and you're now in Lumberton. Check out the forecast there:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

That's pretty wacky southerngale!

Very wacky! I've never seen forecasts from 2 neighboring cities like those.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

front is thru brenham, temp is 55*F, should I say inching thru

[Furious George]

Looks like the cold front has slowed down significantly.

Front passed Bryan / College Station at 6 am and Brenham at 1 pm. Seeing as how Brenham is 33 miles south of BCS, a little math shows the front headed south at less than 5 MPH. Also, the front passed Madisonville at 8 am and is taking its time getting to Huntsville. Wouldn't be surprised to see the front arrive after the NWS has predicted in Houston.

However, the main thing to look at is the secondary surge of Arctic air, currently north of the red river area. This is going to be the key element in the timing of Houston's winter weather.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Athens Tx se of big D is getting lots of rain, however every few minutes I hear a ping ping on the window unit...could it be???? Might be mixing in some ice ever so slowly. Shows the temps have fallen 2 degrees in Tyler recording station in last 10 minutes. We are farther west and it seems we are a tad bit cooler than the site in Tyler.
I am concerned about later tonight and early morning Sunday. Can you believe Acc.weather had us at a high of 51 today? Don't think so. Even the REal feel temp is too high.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

Southerngale

Wow....that is bizarre! Thanks for the feedback.

[double D]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS is already blaming the models, instead of taking any responsibility themselves:


000
FXUS64 KEWX 131848
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.UPDATE...
DUE TO POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE, HAVE GONE AHEAD TO ISSUE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING/WATCH PRODUCT AND UPDATED THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS OR SO. EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WARRANT
FURTHER UPDATES TO THESE TIME PERIODS, BUT ADJUSTMENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SUBTLE IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS THE DRASTIC
CHANGES ALONG THE FRONT BEGIN TO CLEAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
FRONTAL INVERSION LOOKING VERY SHALLOW THUS FAR, HAVE CLEANED OUT
A LOT OF THE SLEET WORDINGS IN THE FORECAST, BUT SUSPECT THE
INVERSION COULD DEEPEN AGAIN AS BOTH SLEET AND SNOW BECOMES
POSSIBLE MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS THE ICE, AND IF FREEZING
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, SOME MAJOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE INCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE...THREATENING THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA IN PARTICULAR.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS has lowered predicted highs for northern Harris county next week..

M.L.King Day: Periods of rain. High near 36. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday: Rain, freezing rain and sleet likely, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Looks like Tuesday will probably be stuck at or below freezing now! brr..

[Shoshana]

The nephew in Aubry (N of Dallas, just east of Denton) said it's icing up there.

[TrekkerCC]

The nephew in Aubry (N of Dallas, just east of Denton) said it's icing up there.

Interesting, it is 33 degrees here still. However, it is 32 degrees at places around the DFW area, so eventually the temperature here will get to 32 degrees. I saw at DFW airport that they are reporting light freezing rain. It could be a interesting night after the whole area is at or below freezing.

(Amended (2:47pm) : It has now reached freezing and it appears like some freezing drizzle is in the area.)

[cheezyWXguy]

I just got my first light ice shower (it was rain till then) and everything just froze up on my bushes and trees. It didnt even hit all the places that froze over....that tells me that we just got below freezing and its the last time well be above freezing for a couple of days...our next ice shower is about to move in and it looks liek it could be the first big one for me

[jeff]

Significant glazing to happen tonight through Sunday from Midland to Waco to Dallas.

Per latest guidance showing high QPF in shallow sub-freezing surface air mass points to heavy icing. Expect freezing line to clear Waco this evening and reach N Austin early Sunday whiel progressing only slowly eastward through all of N TX into E TX and SE TX Sunday.

Accumulations in the Ice Storm Warning area could exceed 1.0 inch and may approach 1.5-2.0 inches.

Expect impossible surface travel and very poor aviation travel with de-icing possibly suspended at some terminals and airports closed all together on Sunday.

Power outages will become widespread and spread SE with time as freezing line seeps southward. Expect glazing to reach the I-10 corridor late Monday afternoon and presist through Wednesday. Entire state north of a Laredo to CRP line may have ice accumulations.

SE TX update will be out by 500pm

[KatDaddy]

Thanks a million for your info. I hope it does not get that bad.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It looks like NWS Brownsville finally woke up or one of those old timers hacked into their system and sent this AFD out this afternoon. I still think they are going to be way off on the timing down there

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES PERSISTENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

WHILE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN MAINLY THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZES DO
OCCUR IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS...AND THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR VARIOUS
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE FREEZE EVENTS ARE
CHALLENGING TO FORECAST SINCE AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS TENDS TO BE
SHALLOW...MAKING IT HARD FOR COMPUTER MODELS TO RESOLVE THE RELEVANT
PARAMETERS ON AN ADEQUATE SCALE...AND THESE EVENTS ARE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT GOOD FORECASTING REFERENCES AND TOOLS ARE NOT
ROBUST.

ONE THING IS KNOWN...AND THAT IS THAT MAJOR FREEZE EVENTS IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
SUCH AS THE ONE NOW TAKING PLACE. ALSO...THERE ARE SIMILARITIES
BETWEEN ARCTIC OUTBREAKS THAT CAN BE DESCRIBED IN A GENERAL
SENSE...AND IT MAY BE INSTRUCTIVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CURRENT H5
PATTERN BASED ON ANALYSIS DONE BY MCFARLAND (1976).

THE MAIN H5 FEATURES TO BE LOOKING FOR...ACCORDING TO THE MCFARLAND
STUDY...ARE A DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER BAFFIN BAY...A MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WITH AN EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE...
ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LINE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH LINE. KEY EVENTS INCLUDE THE
BREAK OUT OF A HIGH LATITUDE SURFACE HIGH AFTER THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
OMEGA-TYPE BLOCK OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE LINKING UP WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER BAFFIN
BAY...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE BASE OF THE EAST-WEST TROUGH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES INDEED REFLECT MANY OF THE ABOVE
FEATURES...SO IT WILL PAY TO BE VIGILANT. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THOSE
PROVIDED BY GUIDANCE.

AN INITIAL PREPARATORY COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA IS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS NOW...BUT IS PREVENTED FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH JUST YET AS THERE IS A STROM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO KICK OUT BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY ARCTIC AIR SPILLING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. IF THE H5
TROUGH HAD BEEN ABLE TO SWING SOUTH AND EAST A BIT MORE BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY COLD AIR...THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STRONGER ARCTIC OUTBREAK. NONETHELESS...COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AROUND MID DAY.

TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LIFTING AND MOISTURE INCREASE TO 10
KFT WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BRINGING INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE COLD AIR WILL CREATE A
VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND A STRONG INVERSION...SO THINK
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMIZED. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING
TOWARD SHARP BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IS DEVELOPING HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT QUICKER MOVING PUSH ON MONDAY WITH LIMITED UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD REDUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL HERE BY THEN. AFTER
FROPA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN TO DECREASE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 950 MB OR 2000 FT...OR JUST A BIT LOWER...
WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX...SLEET OR ICE PELLETS
AND HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE ZONE WORDING. WILL REASSESS POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER WATCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE ISSUING ANY OF
THOSE PRODUCTS.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...SINCE THESE
SEEM TO REFLECT THINGS BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE BE
DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER ABOUT WEDNESDAY WILL BLEND THE GFS BACK INTO THE GRIDS.

LOCAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY BY AROUND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFILTRATION ENDS. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED A WEEK FROM
TODAY AS MORE COLD AIR DESCENDS FROM CANADA