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TampaFl
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#21 Postby TampaFl » Wed Jan 10, 2007 5:49 pm

Agree with you Boca, here is the afternoon AFD from Melbourne & Tampa:

NWS MLB:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 101915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007

TUE-WED...LARGE AND VERY STRONG HIGH (NEAR 1050 MB) INDICATED
PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE GFS INDICATES WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A HIGHER COVERAGE. WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS YET AS THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE LIFT IS
UNCERTAIN.

NWS TPA:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 101855
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
155 PM EST WED JAN 10 2007

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF & FL SLIDES NE TO FL & THE ATLANTIC
BY MON. THE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...TO CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...TUE & WED. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO THE SE U.S. AND FL PERSISTS INTO MON BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT
REACHES THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL TUE AND THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTH
HALF WED.

THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM & ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A STABLE GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY AND THE FRONT APPROACHING...MON WILL SEE SOME
LOW ODDS OF PCPN THAT CONTINUE INTO TUE. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ENTERS
THE CWFA LATE TUE INTO WED POPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE
BY WED. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY STAYS NORTH AND WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWN FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK TO NEAR OR UNDER CLIMO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...SUSPECT THE MEX GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL AND WILL STAY ABOVE FOR
MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND CENTRAL.
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