El Nino and winter

[WeatherWiseGuy]

I think one thing we all need to keep in mind is that so far the forecast is for a weak El Nino, though that could change. As I understand it, during weak El Ninos other factors can have more of an influence on the winter weather. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see this turn into a moderate El Nino the way the SST's are trending in the Pacific.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think one thing we all need to keep in mind is that so far the forecast is for a weak El Nino, though that could change. As I understand it, during weak El Ninos other factors can have more of an influence on the winter weather. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see this turn into a moderate El Nino the way the SST's are trending in the Pacific.

yes, that is right. 1899 and 1977 (two of the U.S.A's coldest winters) were during weak El Ninos. In 1899 ice flows reached the GOM, and in 1977 it snowed in Miami.

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Ice flows in the GOM! What a bizarre thought. Do you have a link to that information? That would be really interesting

[Ptarmigan]

El Nino for Texas means cooler and wetter winters. Also, there is a higher chance for snow and even ice storms.

[Portastorm]

I'm eager to see some good analog years as the experts get a better handle on the intensity of El Nino this coming winter. Once we start seeing that, we'll have a better idea just what KIND of El Nino year is in store.

I hope you're wrong about the ice storm part. Geez, I hate those things!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ice flows in the GOM! What a bizarre thought. Do you have a link to that information? That would be really interesting

yeah and not just that but there was also supposedly a cold shot capable of a HIGH in the 20s in Miami during that same winter of 1899 (and snow fell all the way down the FL peninsula..up to possibly an inch in most of Central FL)! Could you imagine a repeat today?

Here is info. on the two coldest days of that winter from Intellicast.com:

February 12, 1899 -

it was the coldest morning ever in the eastern Great Plains and eastern Texas. Kansas city, Missouri bottomed out at 22 degrees below zero. Fort Worth, Texas dropped to 8 degrees below. Camp Clarke, Nebraska recorded 47 degrees below zero. In the east, Washington, DC recorded 15 degrees below zero and Charleston, South Carolina received 3.9 inches of snow

February 13, 1899 -

it was the coldest morning ever along the Gulf Coast, with temperatures of 6.8 degrees at New Orleans, Louisiana, 7 degrees at Pensacola, Florida and 1 degree below zero at Mobile, Alabama. The record low temperature for the state of Florida was set at Tallahassee when the mercury tumbled to 2 degrees below zero. The record low temperature for the state of Louisiana was set at Minden, when the thermometer fell to 16 degrees below zero. A trace of snow fell at Fort Myers, Florida. This was the farthest south snow has ever been observed in the US until 1977.

And here is something from a weatherunderground blog:

Keeping cold weather in perspective...

As advertised, today started out cold along the N Gulf coast with freezing temps, although most locations recorded a lite to moderate intensity freeze. Here in Houma, lowest station temp found reached 28.5° (coldest of this mild winter season) ranging to 30° at the airport. Also noted 15th Frost of season...Temps rebounded into the mid 50's under clear skies in SE LA and will continue warming throughout the rest of the week reaching the mid 70's...with some rain chances returning late week. (hopefully not affecting our 1st Mardi Gras parade on Friday nite!)

So you thought it was cold today? Well for most of the South, indeed most of the US eastern two thirds, the current cold spell pathetically pales in comparison to the all time low temp records set on this date back on Feb 13 1899 when one of the strongest arctic outbreaks occurred from Feb 11-14. That event topped off a two decades long period of extremely cold winters. Many of these low temp records stand today, and are astounding in their severity, esp for the Gulf Coast states.

A few frigid examples from Louisiana (Feb 12-13) include: -16° @ Minden (LA's all time record low), -5° @ Shreveport, 2° @ Baton Rouge, 3° @ Lake Charles, 5° @ Houma, 6° @ Lafayette, and 7° @ New Orleans. Readings from nearby states during that event include: -2° @ Tallahasee (FL all time official low), -1° @ Mobile, 7° @ Pensacola, -10° @ Dallas, -1° @ Austin, 4° @ San Antonio, 7° @ Galveston...the list goes on. For New Orleans this happened on an early Mardi Gras celebration, with the 7° temp on Lundi Gras (the day before Mardi Gras). The next day Mardi Gras 1899 revelers were covered with more than beads and doubloons as 3" of snow fell, making it the snowiest Mardi Gras in the city's history!

I found a number of sources on this record cold event. One of the most descriptive came from Texas' "History of Freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Part 2 1895-1962". Another which contains nice graphic showing those record lows for select cities across the South is from http://www.southalabama.edu...Also Louisiana Timeline and NOAA News mention it was only the 2nd time huge ice chunks flowed into the Gulf via the Mississippi River. An east coast perspective that revealed the extreme cold was sandwiched between two blizzards came from Maryland Weather.com. Now THAT was some cold!

Well I wasn't around to see the 1899 event, but on this date Feb 13 1958 I did get to see one of the heavier snowfalls in Houma in my lifetime as up to 5 to 7 inches accumulated in places. As a young five year old, I delighted in making a large snowman and huge snowballs, while my mother treated us in making fresh snow ice cream. This event, along with the 1899 outbreak is mentioned in an Intellicast almanac collection.

But alas, I was nowhere near to view the Mother of All Gulf Coast Snowstorms...one that occurred 4 years prior to the Great Arctic Outbreak. This storm on Feb 15 1895 dropped snowfall totals along the N Gulf coast that would make New Englanders proud. I found this from February Weather Facts..."A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA. (David Ludlum)"
Indeed, here in Houma LA it produced our largest record snowfall total of an incredible 16" to 18". In Helen E. Wurzlows excellent historical collection "I dug up Houma Terrebonne, Volume 1", page 14 shows a vintage photo of a group of downtown Houma residents posing amid piles of the white stuff with large snowballs in hand as the caption reads, "Houma was blanketed with 18 inches of snow on Feb 15, 1895. This Alaskan scene was taken at the corner of Church and Main..." What a scene!...a scant 111 years back.

Ahhh, the good old days of February in SE LA...when cold was COLD...and snowfall was HEAVY!!!

PS: Happy Valentines Day Everyone!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/DocNDs ... amp=200602

[WeatherWiseGuy]

That really boggles the mind. Now, one question I have is how did they determine that there was a weak El Nino in 1899. Were Pacific temps being measured at that time? By the way, this has made me want to dig out my weather records from 1977.

[Portastorm]

Well now I'm REALLY confused!

JB is talking about the upcoming winter and made some analog years suggestions of 1954-55 and 2002-03. Both periods were quite warm for Austin from December through February ... and wouldn't fit the profile of a mild El Nino year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well now I'm REALLY confused!

JB is talking about the upcoming winter and made some analog years suggestions of 1954-55 and 2002-03. Both periods were quite warm for Austin from December through February ... and wouldn't fit the profile of a mild El Nino year.

those were the years he said it could be similar to in the NE..not the entire U.S. as a whole.

We should have a better idea of what he is thinking come October with the Winter Prelim.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm eager to see some good analog years as the experts get a better handle on the intensity of El Nino this coming winter. Once we start seeing that, we'll have a better idea just what KIND of El Nino year is in store.

I hope you're wrong about the ice storm part. Geez, I hate those things!

A weak El Nino will bring about a winter of avg to above avg precip and avg temps, while a moderate El Nino will bring above avg precip and avg to below avg temps do to more cloud cover and higher amounts of precip. El Nino winters also bring a better than avg chance of seeing snow/ice events for much of TX north of a Odessa to Waco to Longview line as the NJS trend to have more ridging in the NW and dips down across the Central and Southern Rockies as upper lows tend to form along the warm moist SJS riding up into SW Texas.

[Portastorm]

EWG, I know he did not specifically mention the southern Plains ... but when you're using analog years, you really can't use different analog years for different parts of the country. The whole point is that the analog year mirrors the pattern in general and that pattern has specific effects on certain areas, such as his embracing 1954 for this hurricane season and how Texas would "bake" .... which we did for most of the summer. Of course, he also predicted we'd get hit with a major ... and that clearly has not happened.

I'm eager to see his winter prelim along with the thoughts of other S2K experts.

I for one would welcome a moderate El Nino with above average precip to offset the drought we're in. I would not welcome the attendant ice storms however! Or, the severe weather events that often come with a stormy, active Southern jet.

Too bad we don't get to choose our weather, eh?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

All I know is that with these early fronts sweeping through one after the other like they are...I am not expecting a warm winter. Looking back at climatology...it seems the early arrival of fronts in the south usually leads to an earlier and colder winter.

Hopefully you guys do get your rain though, that would be a nice relief for the state, and with a weak El Nino and a warm gulf...more moisture packed fronts look likely.

BTW, JB did also say this: "biased colder and stormier than normal in the South and East" in his post today, so I guess that means he also thinks we will be cooler and wetter than normal. Still though, I am going to wait until his later forecasts to buy into them too much.

[Portastorm]

Just think EWG ... it'll be about 10 more weeks and then we can start debating winter weather events!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just think EWG ... it'll be about 10 more weeks and then we can start debating winter weather events!

haha. Can't wait..

[bob rulz]

Well now I'm REALLY confused!

JB is talking about the upcoming winter and made some analog years suggestions of 1954-55 and 2002-03. Both periods were quite warm for Austin from December through February ... and wouldn't fit the profile of a mild El Nino year.

those were the years he said it could be similar to in the NE..not the entire U.S. as a whole.

We should have a better idea of what he is thinking come October with the Winter Prelim.

Indeed. Looking at the weather records as a whole, the two winters were very different here; one was cold and very snowy, the other was one of the warmest, least snowy on record. A region's weather pattern that's similar to previous winters doesn't necessarily mean that it will be similar to the weather patterns in that year in other regions.

[MGC]

A weak El Nino is just what my area needs this winter. Rain! We still have a huge rain deficit since Hurricane Katrina. Them crawfish ponds over in Louisiana need the water for a good crop......MGC

[JonathanBelles]

Just think EWG ... it'll be about 10 more weeks and then we can start debating winter weather events!

haha. Can't wait..

god i cant wait until winter its only been years since ive seen one.

[boca]

In Florida we get summer and fall thats it. The calender might say winter but its really fall.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just think EWG ... it'll be about 10 more weeks and then we can start debating winter weather events!

Not to mention will be hanging our wishes on every run of the GFS.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

A weak El Nino is just what my area needs this winter. Rain! We still have a huge rain deficit since Hurricane Katrina. Them crawfish ponds over in Louisiana need the water for a good crop......MGC

Really I would hope we would get a nice cold winter for a couple of reasons. One kill all of the bugs and alergens in the air. And two, cool down the Gulf of Mexico. It really didn't get a chance last winter to cool down as we had a mild winter. It's a boiling pot out there and we on the Gulf Coast have been extremely lucky we didn't get a Huricanne in that water this year. It would have been nasty with all that fuel out there. Hopefully have a cool winter with a few shots of prolonged Arctic outbreaks could do the trick.