Weekend winter storm thread

[Weatherfreak14]

Does it look anything old man winter is going to do for coastal areas of SC like near charleston or savannah.

[jasons2k]

One thing we have to remember is that forecasts for winter weather, especially in Alabama, are spotty at best. This past Sunday night at 10pm, all the locals and the NWS were forecasting a nearly definite 1-2" of snow across middle Alabama. When we woke up there was absolutely nothing but rain. Several years ago, so the locals will tell you, the NWS and local stations were forecasting a dusting of snow. In the morning, they had over 7" on the ground and people were snowed in without bread or milk for days. Hence, at the slightest mention of snow around here, people make a run on Wal-Mart for bread and milk.

I think it's important to keep in mind that very few of the greatest winter storms in history were forecast to be such.

Even right up until the first snow fell, the mets in Atlanta weren't predicting much for Atlanta in March 1993. They seriously downplayed it....

The Birmingham mets(James Spann in particularly who is still doing the weather) jumped all over it, warning of a "historic snowstorm" 2 days in advance. I've noticed the Atlanta mets typically downplay everything so it doesn't surprise me.

Yep, I was living in Bham at the time and they were ALL OVER the blizzard in '93. Jerry Tracy & Jay Prater showed the maps with 15"+ around metro BHAM and they nailed it. I'm surprised they missed it in Atlanta. It was one of the best-forecasted storms of all time, all the way up the coast, and is often used as a case study.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just speaking in wide terms right now, but a lot about this possible storm remains me of Super Storm '93. The position of the jet, the phasing of energy, the origin point of the surface low (near Eastern Texas), the could be track. Of course I'm not suggesting it will be another SS '93, I merely find the above similarities interesting.

[Tyler]

Just speaking in wide terms right now, but a lot about this possible storm remains me of Super Storm '93. The position of the jet, the phasing of energy, the origin point of the surface low (near Eastern Texas), the could be track. Of course I'm not suggesting it will be another SS '93, I merely find the above similarities interesting.

This storm won't be like 93 since its not a triple-phaser.

[MyrtleBeachGal]

We have snow flurries here in Myrtle Beach this morning. Our local mets are starting to mention the possibility of a snow/mix event for Saturday/Sunday, but most said they will not confirm until they see tomorrow's models.

I'm ready to see more snow! Flurries are just teasers

[JenyEliza]

I'm guessing Cold Winter Rain (again) in N. GA.

Looking more like no snow for us.

[Brent]

I'm guessing Cold Winter Rain (again) in N. GA.

Looking more like no snow for us.

I agree. I think Middle TN from Memphis to Nashville is going to get nailed though. Potential for more than 6 inches. I'm not even sure we'll see a changeover now...

LOL at this, you know it's been warm when Low 20's is considered "extreme"

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
527 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-092100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
527 AM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED
BY AN ARCTIC BLAST...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
THE COLD AIR BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY MORNING....
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 59 CORRIDOR. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD OR IN THE POSITION
OF THE COLD AIR...WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES AND AMOUNTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MID
DAY ON SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 18 AND 28 DEGREES EACH MORNING AREAWIDE...WITH
A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
DEGREES NORTH AND ONLY ACHIEVE THE MID 40S SOUTH...BEFORE HIGHS
MODERATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

EXTREME COLD CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR THE VERY YOUNG AND
THE ELDERLY. BE SURE THAT YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS HAVE ADEQUATE
HEATING IN THEIR HOMES OR HAVE A WARM PLACE TO GO. PROVIDE ANY
OUTDOOR PETS WITH ADEQUATE SHELTER AND BE SURE THEY HAVE PLENTY OF
FRESH UNFROZEN WATER. PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT ANY TENDER VEGETATION. FINALLY IF YOUR HOME IS NOT WELL
INSULATED...THERE ARE A FEW STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TO PROTECT YOUR
PLUMBING. DRIP FAUCETS ON EXTERIOR WALLS...MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED
PIPES ARE WRAPPED IN INSULATION...AND COVER ANY OUTDOOR FAUCETS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STATIC DISCHARGES. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN MOVING AROUND NEAR
SENSITIVE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT AND WHEN PUMPING GASOLINE.

[Stephanie]

Here's Mt. Holly's take on it so far;

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EST THU FEB 9 2006

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-092200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
351 AM EST THU FEB 9 2006

...A WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

WINTER IS NOT OVER YET. AND BY THE TIME THIS WEEKEND IS OVER, WE MAY
REALIZE THAT IN A BIG WAY. OUR COMPUTER MODELS, DO NOT YET AGREE
ON A SOLUTION FOR OUR UPCOMING WEATHER SITUATION. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS
THAT A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER TO
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND THEN TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY.
PLENTY OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM. THERE LIES OUR POTENTIAL PROBLEM. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE STORM, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS
SNOW SATURDAY. IF THE STORM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST, THE BULK
OF THE SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. IF IT TRACKS
FARTHER WEST, THE HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. AND IF IT TRACKS EVEN FARTHER WEST, CLOSER TO THE COAST,
MILD AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM BRINGING A CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING
FARTHER INLAND. IT APPEARS THAT THE CRITICAL TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER, WE WILL GET A MUCH BETTER IDEA OF HOW
THE UPCOMING EVENTS WILL PLAY OUT. UNTIL THAT TIME, IF YOU WILL BE
TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...
OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM.

$$

TFG/RPW

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
205 PM EST THU FEB 09 2006


EAST...

THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE
SPREAD IS DECREASING AND THE CONSENSUS IS MOVG CLOSER TO THE MID
ATL COAST. THE 12Z GFS WAS PREFERRED W/THE NERN SYS ON DAY 3/SUN
WHICH IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE RUN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
THE TREND IN THE NCEP ENSMEMBERS WAS MORE WWD...WHICH SUPPORTED A
WWD SHIFT IN CONTINUITY BY ABOUT 120 NM. THIS SYS SHUD RAPIDLY
PASS NEWD...WELL OFF THE CAN MARITIMES BY DAY 4/MON. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SWD...AGREEING W/THE 12Z CANADIAN BUT NORTH OF
THE 12Z NOGAPS. A GREAT DEAL DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE
VORTICES CURRENTLY IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND NRN
GREENLAND...WHICH REMAIN AT THE FRINGE OF THE NORTH AMERICA UPPER
AIR NETWORK. IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS OF RUNS FOR THE
MODELS TO LOCK IN ON A SOLUTION. ANOTHER TARGETED WINTER RECON
FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 00Z...WITH ADDITIONAL WINTER STORM RECON
SCHEDULED THE FOLLOWING DAY OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. SEE MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS /PMDHMD/ AND WINTER WEATHER /QPFHSD/
DISCUSSIONS FOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS CYCLONE.

ROTH/CLARK


Source: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/extended.discussion

[Brent]

Well all hope is not lost here... if the new Euro verifies(and it is an outlier), we'll need those snow shovels Saturday Morning.



(I am not holding my breath)

From James Spann in Birmingham:

After a decent review of current surface and upper air observations, water vaopr loops, model data, and other data... here is the current thinking on coming attractions:

*Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow night as a surface low forms over the southwest part of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely... maybe even some thunder involved, especially south of I-20.

To the north, snow should develop late tomorrow night over much of Tennessee while we get the rain. A large part of Tennessee and Southern Kentucky could see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night, so keep that in mind if you are traveling to the north.

*As the surface low moves into Georgia, there is a chance the rain will change to snow across the northern third of Alabama before ending early Saturday morning. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. An inch or so is possible there, but the really significant amounts, most likely, will be north of the border in Tennessee. I sure can't rule out a dusting as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.

This forecast scenario is based on the northward adjustment of the surface low track, seen on the 06Z and 12Z model runs. There is decent agreement; we must note the UKMET keeps the low near the Florida border, with a much better snow potential for the I-20 corridor. I also have to note that 1050 mb high showing up on all the models; I can't recall the last time I saw one of those down here in the "lower 48". That is very cold air.

*Much colder air rolls here on Saturday in the wake of the departing storm. Some flurries will be possible during the day, maybe even a few snow showers. Temperatures will hold in the 30s, and wind chill values will remain below freezing all day. It will be a very raw and cold day.

We should be down in the 18 to 23 degree range early Sunday morning. I think the winds and some leftover clouds will keep the bottom from dropping out. Monday morning could be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind. This will be the coldest two day stretch of the winter season SO FAR.

[WaitingForSiren]

I agree with Tyler, it wont be one of those amazing triple phaser type storms that explode to amazing depths, rather it'll be a standard nor-easter in my eyes. I think it SEEMS amazing since theres been a lack of snowstorms this year, but if you look at the forecast it isnt much different than any other noreaster. and to the guy/girl/whatever to compared this to the superstorm of 93...I dont really see why. The superstorm of 03 actually formed in the northern gulf, like 50 miles at least away from land, and exploded across the northeast gulf as it neared florida. This storm wont explode till it hits the eastern seaboard, so places far inland wont see a major blizzard, and also it wont snow too far south compared to the march 93 storm. I mean, itll be a big snowstorm and all, but nothing to put in the record books. anyway, heres my snowfall forecast with this storm as of now...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

All I said was that some of the set up and track elements were similar, never never ever did I say it would be another SS '93.

[Brent]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
247 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

ALZ011>015-017>050-101100-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
247 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST ALABAMA AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR BEGINS WORKING ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST
ALABAMA. ANY STANDING WATER SATURDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO PATCHES
OF ICE ON AREA ROADWAYS AS SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...
GENERALLY NORTH OF A TUSCALOOSA..TO CLANTON...TO ALEXANDER CITY LINE.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN NORTH ALABAMA
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

EXTREME COLD CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR THE VERY YOUNG AND
THE ELDERLY. BE SURE THAT YOUR FAMILY AND FRIENDS HAVE ADEQUATE
HEATING IN THEIR HOMES OR HAVE A WARM PLACE TO GO. PROVIDE ANY
OUTDOOR PETS WITH ADEQUATE SHELTER AND BE SURE THEY HAVE PLENTY OF
FRESH UNFROZEN WATER. FINALLY IF YOUR HOME IS NOT WELL
INSULATED...THERE ARE A FEW STEPS YOU CAN TAKE TO PROTECT YOUR
PLUMBING. DRIP FAUCETS ON EXTERIOR WALLS...MAKE SURE ANY EXPOSED
PIPES ARE WRAPPED IN INSULATION...AND COVER ANY OUTDOOR FAUCETS.

[Tyler]

So Brent, how much are you expecting for northern Alabama?

[Brent]

So Brent, how much are you expecting for northern Alabama?

I really am not expecting much. Maybe an inch in the higher elevations. Perhaps a dusting if we're lucky elsewhere down to about the I-20 corridor.

Things could change though...

[Brent]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
333 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD
AIR FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-100545-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.060211T0000Z-060211T1800Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
333 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDSTATE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AND THEN BECOME ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ENDING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN AS RAIN...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-048-051-
101100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0001.060210T2100Z-060211T1200Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-
LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...
UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...
MILAN...HUNTINGDON
338 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF FOUR INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[plainsman]

the Dallas Fort Worth NWS station just updated their forecast for friday feb,10th now saying the rain will change over to Snow after 3 pm... chance of precip 100 percent and gusty winds 25-30 mph... with temps dropping during the day.. looks like the precip will be heavy and if rain does change to Snow in Dallas it will be a wet Snow i imagine with temps in the 30s in the afternoon...

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
333 PM CST THU FEB 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WILL OBVIOUSLY PUT THE BULK OF THE EFFORT OF THIS FORECAST ON THE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN...BASICALLY A
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

EVERYTHING IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH PRIOR THINKING ON THE BIG
STORM. BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...THE RAIN SHOULD BE "KNOCK-KNOCK-
KNOCKIN' ON (OUR) WESTERN DOOR-OR-OR." ONE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
IS TO ADD IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW
EVENING...GIVEN 850 MB JET AND MOISTURE STRUCTURE. NOT A LOT OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT
TO KICK OFF SOME UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE CONVECTION.

EVERY SQUARE INCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STANDS TO GET SOME RAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND PUSH THE NEEDLE ALL THE WAY
TO 100 PERECENT. GFS AND ETA STILL SUGGEST A PROBABLY ALL RAIN
EVENT FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONE
THING THAT MAKES ME NERVOUS...THOUGH...IS THE AMOUNT OF QPF STILL
BEING PRINTED OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. HEAVY RAIN LIKE
THIS CAN TAKE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT IS INITIALLY (MARGINALLY)
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SCALE...AND TIP IT TO THE COLD SIDE DUE TO
EVAPORATION AND MELTING PROCESSES. PLUS...THERE'S THE EUROPEAN (OR
WHAT CAN BE SEEN OF THE EURO) THAT SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL BE
A SMALL CHANCE THAT EVERYTHING COULD BE SHIFTED SOUTH A LITTLE
BIT.

SO...OBVIOUSLY AT THIS POINT...THERE'S NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE (OR
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY CHANCE AT ALL) OF SNOW TO WARRANT ANY
KIND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. BUT IT WOULDN'T
SURPRISE ME IF THERE WAS SOME BRIEF CHANGE OVER AT THE TAIL END OF
THE MAIN PRECIP BAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MY MAIN CONCERN AREA TO
WATCH IS FROM FAYETTE...JASPER...ONEONTA...AND GASDEN...NORTHWARD...
PLUS ANY ELEVATIONS OVER 1000-1500 FEET IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA (DOWN
TO ABOUT I-20). AS STATED YESTERDAY...THIS IS NOT A SURE THING
(FAR FROM IT)...AND IF YOU HAD TO PIN ME DOWN THEN I WOULD SAY NO
MEASUREABLE SNOW IN MY FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD COMES A-SURGING ON IN ON SATURDAY. I STILL LIKE THE
THOUGH OFT INCLUDING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT ON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE NORTH HALF. IN FACT...THIS MAY
BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASUREABLE SNOW...
ALTHOUGH I CAN'T SEE ANY PLACE GETTING MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

UNLESS...

850 TEMPS ARE GOING TO GET QUITE COLD. WINDS BLOWING OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. TENNESSEE RIVER WATER TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED TO BE
IN THE 40S. DARE I SUGGEST.........RIVER EFFECT SNOW??

[Tyler]

So Brent, how much are you expecting for northern Alabama?

I really am not expecting much. Maybe an inch in the higher elevations. Perhaps a dusting if we're lucky elsewhere down to about the I-20 corridor.

Things could change though...

I'm betting ya'll will get more than that. You never know...

[Tyler]

River effect snow. WTF. I've never heard of that...