Is this Janurary or June?

[Cookiely]

I refuse to turn on the A/C. It is January and the middle of winter, and should start acting like it.

:lol:




No kidding...I've had to run the A/C quite a bit.

I have had a total of 14 fires in the woodstove since October, NO fires in the daytime WITH the windows OPEN and only 1 log at night to take the *chill* off.......We've had 8 nights below freezing the rest have been in the upper 30's to low 40's.........INSANE I'm tellin' ya's

Dennis

I only wish we had what you are having. I've had the AC set at 76 for the past week. Its hot.

[wx247]

Hey Dennis... what is your elevation?

[Scorpion]

It was 82 out, just perfect. Felt like April. However its supposed to get cold in the next few days, perhaps the coldest of the season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It was 82 out, just perfect. Felt like April. However its supposed to get cold in the next few days, perhaps the coldest of the season.

Yeah you guys in Fl will get cold. Should get into the 20s as far south as Ocala with a freeze to Orlando and Tampa and a frost down into the interior areas of south Florida. Miami will probably reach 40 on Sat. night, and Key West will even get to 50-55 (may be upper 40s in the upper keys). Highs will be in the lower 50s in N. Florida, middle to upper 50s in Central Florida and upper 50s to lower/middle 60s in S. Florida.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest models seem to show it getting nice and chilly here in SE Texas this weekend (comapred to the last few days). Currently the NWS is forecasting highs in the lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s, but I think it will be colder than that.

[azsnowman]

Hey Dennis... what is your elevation?

Garrett, I'm at 7102' here at the house, just 20 miles to my east it rises to just short of 11,000'.

Dennis

[corpusbreeze]

The heck with winter, bring on spring. I wouldnt mind going to the beach in January and febuary. I like the warm temps, warm but not hot.

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the pattern and the models...a return to colder weather should arrive by mid January. Nature likes to equalize itself; so after such a warm period, a cold period is surely to follow. We have had temps. as high as 20+ above normal over the last few days here in SE Texas, so a 20+ below normal period could follow. That would mean very cold air, probably the coldest in years. We'll have to wait and see...

Not neccessarily....it does not work that way. Need I remind you of the summer of 1980? Most of 1998? The winter (for cold) of 1940..1977 and 1978?

Sometimes you get stuck in a pattern and you stay there. You must remember...yes...nature likes a balance...in the SYNOPTIC scale. Your house is the micros scale. To balance out the warm in one place...it may make it colder 1000 miles away. Just because it's 20+ above in your location doesn't mean it gonna need to be -20 below to make it equal out. Nature can do that by making it -20 below normal in Kansas or Indiana and be in perfect balance. As far as nature is concerned...you can stay at +20 all year long and it won't miss a beat.


And looking at the long range GFS for cold shots? You might as well throw some chicken bones down on the floor and try to read them. You will get about the same result. Matter of fact...the 06Z run has taken your cold air and shoved it east. 06Z temps on the 16th are now 11C.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the pattern and the models...a return to colder weather should arrive by mid January. Nature likes to equalize itself; so after such a warm period, a cold period is surely to follow. We have had temps. as high as 20+ above normal over the last few days here in SE Texas, so a 20+ below normal period could follow. That would mean very cold air, probably the coldest in years. We'll have to wait and see...

Not neccessarily....it does not work that way. Need I remind you of the summer of 1980? Most of 1998? The winter (for cold) of 1940..1977 and 1978?

Sometimes you get stuck in a pattern and you stay there. You must remember...yes...nature likes a balance...in the SYNOPTIC scale. Your house is the micros scale. To balance out the warm in one place...it may make it colder 1000 miles away. Just because it's 20+ above in your location doesn't mean it gonna need to be -20 below to make it equal out. Nature can do that by making it -20 below normal in Kansas or Indiana and be in perfect balance. As far as nature is concerned...you can stay at +20 all year long and it won't miss a beat.


And looking at the long range GFS for cold shots? You might as well throw some chicken bones down on the floor and try to read them. You will get about the same result. Matter of fact...the 06Z run has taken your cold air and shoved it east. 06Z temps on the 16th are now 11C.

Yeah but the ensembles show a negative NAO forming by Jan. 20th which would allow the building cold in canada to rush southward. Also, in the shorter term BOTH the 12Z GFS and the 6Z Euro show it getting much colder here this weekend. Looks like possible freeze threats. I wonder why the NWS is only forecasting 63 and 37 here in Spring when it looks like it could be a lot colder than that. Both the GFS and the EURO bring the 0C 850mb temp. line into Houston on Friday. I still think we are setting ourselves up for a colder pattern come the middle to later part of the month.

Also if you look at this: http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/Re ... ature.html it looks like temps. in Alaska are cooling which could lead to a chance of some very cold arctic outbreaks down the road.

[Kelarie]

Honestly I care less at this point in time about cold weather, we need rain. I live in Austin and they annouced that in several areas grass fires had just started. This is not good. Most of Oklahoma (it seemed) was on fire yesterday, several small towns in Texas burned yesterday. People are dying because of these fires.

What we need is rain. Can someone tell me when that is going to happen?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Honestly I care less at this point in time about cold weather, we need rain. I live in Austin and they annouced that in several areas grass fires had just started. This is not good. Most of Oklahoma (it seemed) was on fire yesterday, several small towns in Texas burned yesterday. People are dying because of these fires.

What we need is rain. Can someone tell me when that is going to happen?

No real rain until mid month. On January 16th and 17th the GFS shows a 10-20% chance with a higher chance on the 18th. If the GFS verifies then some good soaking rains should fall across the entire state on the 18th before changing to snow in northern and central TX and a wintry mix all the way to Houston (the winter weather is just a may be, but the rain threat is more likely). Slight chances of rain/snow should continue into the 19th. Remember we are talking about one run of the GFS (12Z), and it is forecasting this rain at about 2 weeks out. Until then only expect 10% or less chances of rain with mainly dry, gusty fronts. Who knows though, things can change...lots to watch. The overall pattern seems to suggest a cooler and wetter pattern will emerge by late month.

[Air Force Met]

I wonder why the NWS is only forecasting 63 and 37 here in Spring when it looks like it could be a lot colder than that. Both the GFS and the EURO bring the 0C 850mb temp. line into Houston on Friday. I still think we are setting ourselves up for a colder pattern come the middle to later part of the month.

????-850MB is 5000'. 0C at 5000' does not translate down to the sfc unless there is one heck of an inversion. Even translated down moist adiabatically it warms to about 45F-48F. If there is an inversion....you can expect to get down to mid 30's and warm up into the low 60's...because the rule is you take the 850 MB temp (which is 0C) and warm it dry adiabatically down to the sfc...which will mean highs in the low to mid 60's.

So....an 850 temp of 0C equals lows of mid 30's and highs of low/mid 60's actually. 850 MB temps of 0C does not mean it is 0C at the sfc...unless you are in Denver.

[Ivanhater]

I hope we get some cold air for the waters sake, if we dont get any prolonged cold snaps this winter, i shutter to think about hurricane season

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wonder why the NWS is only forecasting 63 and 37 here in Spring when it looks like it could be a lot colder than that. Both the GFS and the EURO bring the 0C 850mb temp. line into Houston on Friday. I still think we are setting ourselves up for a colder pattern come the middle to later part of the month.

????-850MB is 5000'. 0C at 5000' does not translate down to the sfc unless there is one heck of an inversion. Even translated down moist adiabatically it warms to about 45F-48F. If there is an inversion....you can expect to get down to mid 30's and warm up into the low 60's...because the rule is you take the 850 MB temp (which is 0C) and warm it dry adiabatically down to the sfc...which will mean highs in the low to mid 60's.

So....an 850 temp of 0C equals lows of mid 30's and highs of low/mid 60's actually. 850 MB temps of 0C does not mean it is 0C at the sfc...unless you are in Denver.

Looking at the 12Z GFS surface temp. forecast maps on accuweather.com...it looks like it is forecasting a high only in the 50s on Friday. Also, it always seems as though these surface temp. forecasts are too warm. It shows a low in the middle 30s Fri. night, but with the error I have observed, that usually means a freeze for my house. I think we only hit 56-57 on Friday and hit 31-32 Friday night. We'll see... But also you have to admit with a neg. NAO progged to form later this month and the building cold in Alaska that there is a chance of more prolonged and stronger cold shots later in the month.

Also: Have you looked at the JMA? it has 850mb temps. as low as -3 or -4 on Friday. I rarely see 850mb temps. that cold and it not be AT LEAST a day in the 50s with a freeze. The NOGAPS also shows a good -2 or -3 850mb temp. The airforce model is the coldest, and it shows 850mb temps near -4 or -5 on Friday.

[Brent]

If ANYONE goes into a prolonged cold snap(and I'm very doubtful)... it's going to be east of Texas. We get cold Friday, but quickly moderate back to well above normal by Sunday. Ugh...

and let's not even get into wintry WX chances... ya'll can't even get RAIN.

[Portastorm]

We (Austin) had a high temp of 86 degrees today. 86 DEGREES on January 3rd!!! This is nuts.

The drought is giving us new meaning for the phrase "Texas toast," as in the state's landscape.

[Donwx]

Extremeweatherguy I agree with you on the chance of colder weather and possibly wintery precip later on in the month. And not only does the 12z run for today show a LOT of rain and possibly some wintery precip for Texas, but since December 27 I've noticed that in atleast one run of the GFS each day has had the same senario for colder temps and more precipitation for the South later on this month.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest run of the Euro still shows it quite cold this Friday. See the follwing links for more:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... d=&zoom=.6

^^^850mb temps & winds & heights^^^

The GFS is also continued cold for the weekend:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &id=&zoom=.

^^^850mb temps & winds & heights^^^

[Kennethb]

Must be June. Temeratures in the 80's. Tropical Storm in the Atlantic. Just need some afternoon thunderstorms.

But wait. Typical of January is a cold-down in proportion to the warmth. Winter will have a good strong response.

[vbhoutex]

Is there a "conversion" from the expected 850mb temps to surface temps?