Pacific Northwest Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
If we do get an over-running event, it will be marginal at best. There are a few reasons for this...1) There isn't a true, arctic airmass over Western Washington...we are once again flirting with arctic air, but the majority of the airmass is locked up in British Columbia and east of the cascades, 2) Precipitation will start in the late afternoon/early evening time frame...unfortunately the warmest time of the day, and 3) A strong southwesterly flow develops ahead of the warm front.
We've flirted with snow many times this winter, but as you all know, it never seems to go our way. This looks no different. The only expections to this rule may be Bellingham and Vancouver, WA...good Frazer Valley outflow and Columbia Gorge outflow. In any event, it's something to watch. But after the tremendous disappointment we've all experienced these past two weeks, I don't think we should get our hopes up.
Anthony
Current temp at 33 F.
We've flirted with snow many times this winter, but as you all know, it never seems to go our way. This looks no different. The only expections to this rule may be Bellingham and Vancouver, WA...good Frazer Valley outflow and Columbia Gorge outflow. In any event, it's something to watch. But after the tremendous disappointment we've all experienced these past two weeks, I don't think we should get our hopes up.
Anthony
Current temp at 33 F.
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TT-SEA
Fascinating to look back at the old posts on this site. Here is a summary as the snow/ice storm approached last January (1/6/04) from one of the members on Storm2K...
Good evening everyone. A big winter storm followed by possible sea level river flooding in the Pacific northwest. Gale warning are also in effect for the Washington and Oregon coast tonight. This is storms watch given the winter and flood scenarios.
Getting right to the facts starting with the current obs as of 10 PM PST. It's light snow with a temperature of 26 degrees at Hoquiam, Washington, 27 in Astoria, Oregon, and 9 above zero in the Dalles. It's overcast and 24 degrees in Seattle, 20 in Portland, 18 in Troutdale, and minus 3 in Stampede Pass on I 90. I 90 won't be a fun ride at all over the next few days. If you can imagine how bad it will be at sea level, try heading up the mountains. I sure wouldn't with the avalanche dangers increasing.
On radar tonight, things are starting to crank up near Portland and Seattle with respect to precipitation. Some of the initial precip will probably not hit the ground. However it won't take long to saturate the low levels and get some good snow coming down overnight. Snow will likely be heavy at times ven at sea level in Seattle and Portland with the mountains getting it much worse obviously.
Breaking down accumulation for snow, by Tuesday evening expect total snow accumulation of 4-8 inches in Portland in the downtown area, 2-4 inches on Astoria, Oregon, 8-12 inches in Troutdale and 6-8 inches in Seattle with more to the east and less to the west of the city. The Washington coast will likely also see 2-4 inches of snow. So a significant snowstorm for this part of the country. The Cascades, Olympic Mountains, including Mount Baker will likely see snow measuring several feet before all is said and done. Stampede Pass will see moderate to heavy snow throughout this event with no changeover expected. That's why if it's bad in Seattle and Portland, I 90 won't be any better, it will be worse through those passes, much worse. Best bet is just stay home tonight and tomorrow in Seattle and Portland and points east into the cascades. It's not gonna be pretty. Combine the heavy snow with strong gusty winds, natural avalanche danger is quite high for the mountainous areas. Cold wind chills are also expected with this type of storm.
After the snow changes over in Seattle and Portland, there is a huge concern, especially east of Portland in the Troutdale area and the Dalles for significant and damaging ice accumulation. Some places could potentially lose power with this type of snow and ice on top of snow setup. Then with slushy snow covered roads and rain falling tomorrow night on top of that in Seattle and Portland, travel will be even more dangerous. Best bet is forget travelling until Wednesday at the earliest unless it's an absolute emergency in which case 911 is the best option.
Now the question is why the winter storm in Seattle and Portland? A tremendous cold high pressure system has made it into the lower 48. This arctic plunge associated with the high is funneling through the Columbia River Gorge and into Portland tonight and through the Stampede Pass and into Seattle. With this east wind trajectory, that's where we sweeze out maximum amounts of snowfall in the Sea Tac and Portland area. At the same time this colder air is moving in, a huge moisture plume of Pacific moisture is moving into this colder arctic air generating the beginnings of what will be heavy snow even at sea level and coastal locations. The changeover will occur slowly from west to east during the day Tuesday. The further east you go inland, the heavier the snow. The further west you go near the coast, the less the snow and the verifies with the forecast totals. I mentioned them earlier and will mention them again at the bottom. Be safe and just stay home tomorrow if you feel the need to. From my chair here, this is not gonna be pretty for travelers.
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST
SEATTLE: 6-8"
TACOMA: 6-7"
STAMPEDE PASS: 18-24"
PORTLAND" 4-8"
TROUTDALE: 8-12"
THE DALLES: 12" plus
ASTORIA, OR: 2-4"
HOQUIAM, WA: 2-4"
Cascade mountain peaks: 2-4 feet potentially.
Jim
Good evening everyone. A big winter storm followed by possible sea level river flooding in the Pacific northwest. Gale warning are also in effect for the Washington and Oregon coast tonight. This is storms watch given the winter and flood scenarios.
Getting right to the facts starting with the current obs as of 10 PM PST. It's light snow with a temperature of 26 degrees at Hoquiam, Washington, 27 in Astoria, Oregon, and 9 above zero in the Dalles. It's overcast and 24 degrees in Seattle, 20 in Portland, 18 in Troutdale, and minus 3 in Stampede Pass on I 90. I 90 won't be a fun ride at all over the next few days. If you can imagine how bad it will be at sea level, try heading up the mountains. I sure wouldn't with the avalanche dangers increasing.
On radar tonight, things are starting to crank up near Portland and Seattle with respect to precipitation. Some of the initial precip will probably not hit the ground. However it won't take long to saturate the low levels and get some good snow coming down overnight. Snow will likely be heavy at times ven at sea level in Seattle and Portland with the mountains getting it much worse obviously.
Breaking down accumulation for snow, by Tuesday evening expect total snow accumulation of 4-8 inches in Portland in the downtown area, 2-4 inches on Astoria, Oregon, 8-12 inches in Troutdale and 6-8 inches in Seattle with more to the east and less to the west of the city. The Washington coast will likely also see 2-4 inches of snow. So a significant snowstorm for this part of the country. The Cascades, Olympic Mountains, including Mount Baker will likely see snow measuring several feet before all is said and done. Stampede Pass will see moderate to heavy snow throughout this event with no changeover expected. That's why if it's bad in Seattle and Portland, I 90 won't be any better, it will be worse through those passes, much worse. Best bet is just stay home tonight and tomorrow in Seattle and Portland and points east into the cascades. It's not gonna be pretty. Combine the heavy snow with strong gusty winds, natural avalanche danger is quite high for the mountainous areas. Cold wind chills are also expected with this type of storm.
After the snow changes over in Seattle and Portland, there is a huge concern, especially east of Portland in the Troutdale area and the Dalles for significant and damaging ice accumulation. Some places could potentially lose power with this type of snow and ice on top of snow setup. Then with slushy snow covered roads and rain falling tomorrow night on top of that in Seattle and Portland, travel will be even more dangerous. Best bet is forget travelling until Wednesday at the earliest unless it's an absolute emergency in which case 911 is the best option.
Now the question is why the winter storm in Seattle and Portland? A tremendous cold high pressure system has made it into the lower 48. This arctic plunge associated with the high is funneling through the Columbia River Gorge and into Portland tonight and through the Stampede Pass and into Seattle. With this east wind trajectory, that's where we sweeze out maximum amounts of snowfall in the Sea Tac and Portland area. At the same time this colder air is moving in, a huge moisture plume of Pacific moisture is moving into this colder arctic air generating the beginnings of what will be heavy snow even at sea level and coastal locations. The changeover will occur slowly from west to east during the day Tuesday. The further east you go inland, the heavier the snow. The further west you go near the coast, the less the snow and the verifies with the forecast totals. I mentioned them earlier and will mention them again at the bottom. Be safe and just stay home tomorrow if you feel the need to. From my chair here, this is not gonna be pretty for travelers.
SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST
SEATTLE: 6-8"
TACOMA: 6-7"
STAMPEDE PASS: 18-24"
PORTLAND" 4-8"
TROUTDALE: 8-12"
THE DALLES: 12" plus
ASTORIA, OR: 2-4"
HOQUIAM, WA: 2-4"
Cascade mountain peaks: 2-4 feet potentially.
Jim
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andycottle
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TT-SEA
It's now down to 2.7F in Winthrop. They should get under their previous low for this season (-2F) tonight and definitely tomorrow. http://www.instaweather.com/KING/defaul ... 0&id=WINTR
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andycottle
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Thanks Tim!! 
Weather Outlook:
Viewing tonights GFS, MRF and MM5 models from UW....looks like we still have some dry days on tap along with some sun, that lasts tomorrow through at least most of saturday. Though with cold high pressure and dry northly flow over us...we can expext CHILLY over night lows as per todays MOS. Come Sunday...well, you can pretty much call it a very wet day as we could receve up to .50" of precip, with a few Northern Sound areas receving as much as .75". Also, at the upper layers of the atmosphere, temps and heights warm up nicely after about Saturday due to a SouthWest flow. Monday - Sunday of next week is still looking like some very rainy weather along with some very wet days. Look for milder temps here at the surface after the weekend, per tonights weather models. In the longer range...am not seeing any cold or snowy weather coming our way as we will be under a rainy wet pattern for next couple weeks. For thoes of you who like rain...good ol` Mother nature has plenty to share!
Weather Outlook:
Viewing tonights GFS, MRF and MM5 models from UW....looks like we still have some dry days on tap along with some sun, that lasts tomorrow through at least most of saturday. Though with cold high pressure and dry northly flow over us...we can expext CHILLY over night lows as per todays MOS. Come Sunday...well, you can pretty much call it a very wet day as we could receve up to .50" of precip, with a few Northern Sound areas receving as much as .75". Also, at the upper layers of the atmosphere, temps and heights warm up nicely after about Saturday due to a SouthWest flow. Monday - Sunday of next week is still looking like some very rainy weather along with some very wet days. Look for milder temps here at the surface after the weekend, per tonights weather models. In the longer range...am not seeing any cold or snowy weather coming our way as we will be under a rainy wet pattern for next couple weeks. For thoes of you who like rain...good ol` Mother nature has plenty to share!
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andycottle
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andycottle
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- Location: Woodinville, Wa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 840 PM PST THU JAN 13 2005
.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE 20S AND IN SOME AREAS THE TEENS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS RAPIDLY WARM. NEXT WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW. &&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE OF COLD DAYS THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY INTO A WARM WET ONE. BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. HEAVY PRECIPITATION COULD BE A PROBLEM NEXT WEEK AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE AND MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC GETS DRAWN NE INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ON SOME RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS FALL. IT IS ALSO GETTING QUITE COLD TO THE NORTH WITH KBLI ALREADY DOWN TO 23 DEGREES AT 8 PM AND KPAE DOWN TO 32. CURRENT FORECASTS OF TEENS IN THE N INTERIOR AND MID 20S ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FRI. AT THIS POINT SAT MORNING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA WITH UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S COMMON WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE TRANSITION FROM A COLD DRY PATTERN TO A WARM WET ONE COULD GET INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT OFFSHORE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING AND COULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 M. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE DURING THE NIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO RESPOND WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY PRES GRADIENTS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE ETA AND GFS THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SAT NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN RAPID WARMING ACCOMPANIES THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 40S. SNOW THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE SUNDAY IN THE FRASER OUTFLOW OVER WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOW GETTING INTO OUR SYSTEM. SO WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD START FOR NOW. BUT A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK OR A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRI. ALBRECHT
.SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL REACH INTO THE 20S AND IN SOME AREAS THE TEENS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS RAPIDLY WARM. NEXT WEEK THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND WET SOUTHWEST FLOW. &&
.DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE OF COLD DAYS THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ABRUPTLY INTO A WARM WET ONE. BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S. HEAVY PRECIPITATION COULD BE A PROBLEM NEXT WEEK AS FREEZING LEVELS RISE AND MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC GETS DRAWN NE INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK ON SOME RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON. IN THE SHORT TERM...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH AS DEWPOINTS FALL. IT IS ALSO GETTING QUITE COLD TO THE NORTH WITH KBLI ALREADY DOWN TO 23 DEGREES AT 8 PM AND KPAE DOWN TO 32. CURRENT FORECASTS OF TEENS IN THE N INTERIOR AND MID 20S ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FRI. AT THIS POINT SAT MORNING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA WITH UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S COMMON WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE TRANSITION FROM A COLD DRY PATTERN TO A WARM WET ONE COULD GET INTERESTING SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A STRONG WARM FRONT OFFSHORE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING AND COULD BEGIN AS SNOW WITH OFFSHORE FLOW...850 MB TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING...DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LOW LEVEL 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BELOW 1300 M. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE DURING THE NIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO RESPOND WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY PRES GRADIENTS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN BOTH THE ETA AND GFS THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SAT NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THEN RAPID WARMING ACCOMPANIES THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 40S. SNOW THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE SUNDAY IN THE FRASER OUTFLOW OVER WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOW GETTING INTO OUR SYSTEM. SO WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD START FOR NOW. BUT A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK OR A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SAT NIGHT/SUN TIME FRAME LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRI. ALBRECHT
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
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TT-SEA
Andy... try linking here and you will always be able to find us.
The thread with the most recent post rises to the top.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=22&sid=d1ea6339d6f2df761c550c9b7fdfaa9c
The thread with the most recent post rises to the top.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=22&sid=d1ea6339d6f2df761c550c9b7fdfaa9c
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