February 6-8: Likely Miss for East Coast's Big Cities

[FLguy]

i still think there will be a decent, more widespread event between the mid portion and end of the month. possibly another miller B.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Miller B........ ( Correct me if I am wrong here) But is that when somebody gets the shaft of a storm?

[Colin]

yes chris...

[Anonymous]

Imagine that, getting the royal shaft from the last big snow MECS or SECS of the entire season.

That would really suck big, big time.

The question is, Who gets the bad news?



-Jeb

[FLguy]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

[Anonymous]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

PDSII gave us only 12 inches snow, then from 6pm to 2am of Sunday Feb 16 2003 we got mod to heavy sleet which added 4 inches of sleet to 12 inches of snow. Not exactly a Winter Screw Job, but folks all around us got 25 inches of snow because they did not get all that sleet.


-Jeb

[FLguy]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

PDSII gave us only 12 inches snow, then from 6pm to 2am of Sunday Feb 16 2003 we got mod to heavy sleet which added 4 inches of sleet to 12 inches of snow. Not exactly a Winter Screw Job, but folks all around us got 25 inches of snow because they did not get all that sleet.


-Jeb

be it a miller A or B SECS, someone will ALWAYS get screwed. now whether they actually did get screwed per se or just THINK they did is another thing all together.

but i DONT classify 12" of snow and 4" of sleet (Making for a total of 16") "getting screwed", even if places to the north did get over 2 feet.

[Stormsfury]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

Exactly ...

Jeb, the PDS II storm was a very weak low (standard wise) but with profilic cold air damming, and profilic overrunning, hence, the tremendous totals ... but the storm itself was very meager at best ...

SF

[FLguy]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

Exactly ...

Jeb, the PDS II storm was a very weak low (standard wise) but with profilic cold air damming, and profilic overrunning, hence, the tremendous totals ... but the storm itself was very meager at best ...

SF

agreed 1000%. and you DONT need a tremendously deep low pressure center to see heavy snowfall accumulations. PDS2 was characterized by a strong sub-tropical moisture feed, which ran into the huge high to the north. all in all a nasty warm advection event in the face of a strong/opposing ageostrophic flow.

[FLguy]

bottom line, IF PDS2 was a MINOR event to you, i highly suggest you get an appointment ASAP with your nearest psychologist.

[Stormsfury]

The Deep South Icestorm/Snowstorm of 1988 was characterized by such the same thing ... in which GSP received a record 12" of snow (with some sleet to boot) without a rapidly deepening cyclone ... The Carolinas had a tremendous winter storm with many locations in South Carolina in the low 20's and ZR/IP .. with my locale receiving 1"-2" of sleet, followed by ½" of ZR (total equivalent liquid ended up being 2½" - very strong subtropical feed).

agreed 1000%. and you DONT need a tremendously deep low pressure center to see heavy snowfall accumulations. PDS2 was characterized by a strong sub-tropical moisture feed, which ran into the huge high to the north. all in all a nasty warm advection event in the face of a strong/opposing ageostrophic flow.

[weatherfan]

Well we will have to see what happens.HM those is it as impress with this febuarey as some have been and are right now.Because we now have a MJO wet phase in place.And also the trend over this week is for storms to be more North and West.Its simperly a proggressive flow at least trough the 20th.After the 20th it does appear that then we could get into are next cold shot and storms as you and Flguy and some other has message.But just ege cation because as HM message in his post.Some anlogs have also faver with a West QBO from east and with Nurtrul ENSO to have early springs in the east.I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not saying that your wrong with your calls.You could likey be right.But giving anlogs some supports a very cold and snowey late Febuarey and Marchs.Other supports an early spring.So its a toss up.And neather possabley can not be ruled out.So that why cation sould and needs to be in order.So we will see what happens.If I had an opinion.North of Philly this sould likey be a fairly snowey month.However I would argure that Philly South will not likey have a overley snowey febuarey.But again of course that can easley change.So we just have to see.I still do feel as you guys do those that Late febuarey and March offers are best possableys for our big storm.Just looking at the data as far as El nino coming on that can be pretty much put to rest as any ENSO over the next few month will be weak and border lined at best.BUT The Alantic profiles in sst are much better then first hafe of winter.So All we need is a a negative NAO and a 50/50 low and we can still get a historect bang to end the winter with Late febuarey and March.So As I said before I'm taking it with cation but also staying opstermistict.

[donsutherland1]

Weatherfan,

Nothing is a certainty when it comes to trying to forecast for a whole month.

Here are excerpts from my January 21 discussion on February:

<i>The most likely timing for such a major snowstorm appeared to lie in the February 3-February 20 timeframe with odds somewhat in favor of the February 10-20 period.

There is one caveat. I recognize that some of this information, particularly the timing might be in conflict with the anticipated MJO activity. However, given the past analogs and historical experience, not to mention that the MJO is not a perfect timing tool, my confidence in such a storm occurring in February is high and with respect to its timing is moderate. My confidence in above to much above normal snowfall in this region during February is also high.

Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region:

February 1-7: Near normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
February 8-14: Below normal to near normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation.</i>

So far, the scenario laid out for February 1-7 is working out as anticipated. If one examines the model guidance and ensembles, there appears to be a reasonable possibility that the February 8-14 scenario might also verify.

Finally, if one examines the 0Z run of the GGEM, it is at least in the realm of possibility that a significant storm could affect much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast around February 14 (within the outlined February 10-20 timeframe for a possible big snowstorm).

Given how things are going so far, and the snow (before a changeover) tonight into tomorrow morning helps get the monthly accumulations started, I see little reason to abandon the idea of above to perhaps much above normal snowfall for February.

In terms of temperatures, from Boston to DCA, I expect the month to average out pretty close to normal.

Finally, as I noted in the February discussion, I raised the MJO issue as a caveat. Again, it is important to note that it is a good but not perfect timing tool. If one is to use the GGEM as a guide, perhaps the impact of the wet phase would be greatest during the roughly February 15-25 period?

In sum, a snowy February is not guaranteed. But, given some of the mileposts (in the form of a weekly timeline of temperature/precipitation anomalies), things seem headed down the overall road that was sketched.

[JCT777]

Don and FLguy - I love reading your write-ups with regards to how you see the remainder of winter. It gives me some hope for future snow events, in the face of a several early February rainstorms (2/3 event and the upcoming 2/6 event).

[Lowpressure]

Don and FLguy - I love reading your write-ups with regards to how you see the remainder of winter. It gives me some hope for future snow events, in the face of a several early February rainstorms (2/3 event and the upcoming 2/6 event).

I agree, rain is so depressing in Feb when people 100 miles away get dumped on with snow. Looking towards the 14th timeframe.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, John.

It will be interesting to see what accumulations occur from tonight's/tomorrow's storm before the changeover takes place. With the calendar being in the first week of February and three weeks (not to mention an extra day this leap year) to go, there is plenty of time for a snowy outcome.

If one considers normal monthly snowfall for Washington, DC through Boston and takes into consideration even the likely accumulations for those cities, the month will have taken a good step toward a snowier outcome.

Already there is both some model support and ensemble support for a possible significant storm near mid-month. Analogs suggested such a possibility, as well. This is certainly a far better position than if there were no ensemble or model support, and the ensembles/SSTAs were strongly supporting a PNA-/NAO+ situation.

[Stephanie]

We're under a flood watch for this next storm. If ONLY this was snow instead of rain!

Oh well, it'll be interesting to see what comes in the next few weeks Don - your initial discussion from January 21 looks to be on track so far!

[donsutherland1]

An examination of the radar throughout the day suggests that more precipitation will fall early on in the event than I had earlier thought would be the case. Therefore, some adjustments are in order.

During the February 6-8 period (this includes a possible ending of the precipitation as a period of snow or flurries), I anticipate the following total accumulations:

Albany: 4"-7"
Allentown: 3"-5"
Boston: 4"-10"
Danbury: 3"-6"
Morristown: 3"-5"
New York City: 2"-5"
Philadelphia: 2" or less
Providence: 4"-8"
Washington, DC: Little or no accumulation

Estimated changeover times:

Boston: 2/6 18Z to 21Z
New York City: 2/6 8Z to 11Z
Philadelphia: 2/6 5Z to 8Z

I continue to expect total qpf in these cities to generally range from 1.25" to 2.50".

All said, New York City, Providence, and Boston should get off to a good start toward possible above to much above normal snowfall this month. Philadelphia should make some progress in this direction.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

So far things continue to look on track in terms of the initial discussion. Still much needs to happen e.g., a big snowstorm, for one thing, for it to verify.

Maybe winter can provide a Valentine's Day kiss in the form of a snowstorm?

[Anonymous]

WRONG --- Miller B SECS/MECS events dont always screw the PHL-DCA corridor. let me ask you something, PDS2 was a miller B, did you folks in DCA get screwed, or how about those of your in Baltimore???

PDSII gave us only 12 inches snow, then from 6pm to 2am of Sunday Feb 16 2003 we got mod to heavy sleet which added 4 inches of sleet to 12 inches of snow. Not exactly a Winter Screw Job, but folks all around us got 25 inches of snow because they did not get all that sleet.


-Jeb

First of all, I'm surprised to hear you only got 12 inches... aren't you in southeastern Fairfax county? I thought most of the significant sleet was down from Fredericksburg south. I measured 21 inches on the morning of Feb 17th at my house in eastern Loudoun Co., but that was after plenty of compaction from a period of heavy sleet overnight (I would've been awake through the whole storm to measure multiple times had I not been sick as a dog -- heh, just figures the one time I've had the flu over the past 3 years is during the only MECS I'll probably ever experience).

As far as the Miller B screw job thing, I think the classic way you get screwed by those systems is ala DEC 30 2000 where you are left high and dry due to a sharp cutoff on the southwest edge of the precip... even if you did get screwed by mixing with sleet with PDS2, it wasn't unique to Miller B systems.