First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE event:

#21 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 1:46 pm

thanks...and if one looks at the GFS and ETA 12z runs interior portions of the mid-atlantic and northeast are blasted with heavy snowfall. the sounding at KABE is completely below freezing with .25" of QPF printed out by 72 hrs. anyone who thinks thats a rain event needs to have their brain stem re-attached.

Colin · #22 Postby **Colin** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 2:18 pm

Thanks for using my reporting station as an example.

wxid · #23 Postby **wxid** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 2:32 pm

RNS wrote:Im going to put this VERY bluntly(like it or not) ...forecasters (and especially your local TV mets) Need to grow some balls...b/c saying "Oh 1-2" maybe three inches but then again i really dont know right now". DOES NOT CUT IT,,, forecast verification talks and BS walks...

Damn right! As i said last storm, i am sick of their weak crap !!! My local (she was the catering lady for the Station 2 years ago, never been to Met school, and was the sports lady last year !!! What the f*ck? King , you know the Station i am refering too) was saying rain right up till the flakes were already falling, at that point my 2 year old can tell me the Wx!!!

donsutherland1 · #24 Postby **donsutherland1** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 2:44 pm

Thanks for sharing your preliminary ideas, RNS. I, for one, greatly appreciate the effort and also agree with a number of the sentiments you expressed throughout this thread.

Best wishes.

Don

P.S. for those who do not recall how furiously it snowed in some places during the XMAS 2002 nor'easter, the following is a photo from Albany, NY, which picked up more than 20" of snow:

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/122502-3.jpg">

#25 Postby **Stephanie** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 2:55 pm

RNS - I believed your forecast, Don's SF's KOW's and whole host of others on this board before I believed my local stations AND TWC. If you remember I was getting downright insulting towards the Mt. Holly NWS office because they were SO SLOW in forecasting a winter storm and didn't issue a warning until that day.

Rob Guarino from Fox Philadelphia was really hyped up on the storm and I believe was one of the first in my area to put up the red flag. He's doing it again with this storm as well.

I understand the concern as well of posting accumulations because no matter how many times you say "extremely preliminary", "too far away from the date of the storm", etc., there will always be some lame-brain that hammers you because you "blew" the forecast. I'd like to see some of them give a snow accumulation forecast that's REALISTIC.

Stormchaser16 · #26 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 3:18 pm

RNS... nice forecast, you were spot on last storm. What do you think as far as frozen versus liquid here in hunterdon county new jersey?

It would see that if you have PHL as remaining snow to mix to snow that I should be colder then that?

Anonymous · #27 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 3:37 pm

Any thoughts on the Ohio Valley RNS?

WoodstockWX · #28 Postby **WoodstockWX** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 3:41 pm

RNS wrote:Im going to put this VERY bluntly(like it or not) ...forecasters (and especially your local TV mets) Need to grow some balls...b/c saying "Oh 1-2" maybe three inches but then again i really dont know right now". DOES NOT CUT IT,,, forecast verification talks and BS walks...

I agreed with you 100% here.

During the dec 5-7 storm, this one new stations mets now have a commerical thats says "we nailed the december blizzard" but they were even saying on the 4th that, "We really have no idea what is going to happen but we should have a better idea in 24 hours or so".

I'm SICK of mets doing this, and I'm also sick of radio stations who just read forecasts no matter how bad they are.

BTW, I like your method of forecasting, if you're going to bust, you can't go conservative just to save ur ass, if you bust low that's the worst possible thing for the public.

I'm not saying your totals are too high but, with past storms over the past 12-13 months, totals have been largely underestimated in the MA and NE mainly NW of DCA-PHL and in and around NYC northward..

Guest · #29 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 3:47 pm

wrkh99 wrote:What about the South ?

Coastal flooding MOB to PNS with 5-10" rains expected,winds 55+,temps in the mid 70s, and following passage of the tropical cyclone, partly cloudy, very humid , temps 85-90.. :eek:

nystate · #30 Postby **nystate** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 3:52 pm

What about Watertown and Syracuse NY?

SacrydDreamz · #31 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 4:38 pm

All snow in Roanoke?? I'm VERY doubtful. While the ETA and GFS are trending a little cooler, I don't see the column that cold. Mid levels should warm a bit above freezing as the initial low moves into the TV/OV. Experience suggests ROA goes from snow to ip/zr within 6 hours of precip beginning. I'd expect 2-3" of sleet and snow in ROA with up to 1/4" of freezing rain. That's my initial thought there. I didn't see you forecasr for the last storm, so I can't comment. Not trying to argue with you skill/thoughts, I'm just another voice

#32 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:23 pm

SacrydDreamz wrote:All snow in Roanoke?? I'm VERY doubtful. While the ETA and GFS are trending a little cooler, I don't see the column that cold. Mid levels should warm a bit above freezing as the initial low moves into the TV/OV. Experience suggests ROA goes from snow to ip/zr within 6 hours of precip beginning. I'd expect 2-3" of sleet and snow in ROA with up to 1/4" of freezing rain. That's my initial thought there. I didn't see you forecasr for the last storm, so I can't comment. Not trying to argue with you skill/thoughts, I'm just another voice

ROA would see a prolonged period of heavy snow to begin the event then a change to sleet (more likely than PL) before things end. the precipitation should end before ROA would change back to snow as the system goes to the coast.

#33 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:24 pm

nystate wrote:What about Watertown and Syracuse NY?

Accumulations similar to xmas 02

#34 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:24 pm

Less for watertown

#35 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:27 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:RNS... nice forecast, you were spot on last storm. What do you think as far as frozen versus liquid here in hunterdon county new jersey?

It would see that if you have PHL as remaining snow to mix to snow that I should be colder then that?

you are going to see mainly snow (and heavy at that for a prolonged period)...sleet (more likely than freezing rain) may mix in during the hight of the event especially south and east of Allentown. accumulations up to or exceeding 10" cant be ruled out.

#36 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:29 pm

Stephanie wrote:RNS - I believed your forecast, Don's SF's KOW's and whole host of others on this board before I believed my local stations AND TWC. If you remember I was getting downright insulting towards the Mt. Holly NWS office because they were SO SLOW in forecasting a winter storm and didn't issue a warning until that day.

Rob Guarino from Fox Philadelphia was really hyped up on the storm and I believe was one of the first in my area to put up the red flag. He's doing it again with this storm as well.

I understand the concern as well of posting accumulations because no matter how many times you say "extremely preliminary", "too far away from the date of the storm", etc., there will always be some lame-brain that hammers you because you "blew" the forecast. I'd like to see some of them give a snow accumulation forecast that's REALISTIC.

thanks steph...the only problem is most of them cant.

Stormchaser16 · #37 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:32 pm

Thank you RNS, that is REALLY good news if it holds true, mainly because of the MAJOR flooding that occured today. Bus took an hour longer to get home today because most of the roads that were riverside were completely flooded over. Basement is just about ready to get spilled in with the rain water. IF the weekend early week storm shows snow then rain for this area, major if not devestating flooding will be imminent for this area. If you care to discuss the upcoming storm further i will be on instant messanger.

Guest · #38 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:46 pm

Great info and analysis RNS. Would you care to comment on this area out here in OH/IN and such?

My problem (Concern here) is how far north that mixed bag of precip makes it into WV/SouthernOH/Eastern KY????? Xmas storm brought the mixed bag of precip as far north as here in north central OH which kept the accumulations down to 2 - 4 inches or so around here.

Personally i dont see that as a problem this time for here anyways. But farther south it could be. Thanks.

#39 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:50 pm

king of weather wrote:Great info and analysis RNS. Would you care to comment on this area out here in OH/IN and such?

My problem (Concern here) is how far north that mixed bag of precip makes it into WV/SouthernOH/Eastern KY????? Xmas storm brought the mixed bag of precip as far north as here in north central OH which kept the accumulations down to 2 - 4 inches or so around here.

Personally i dont see that as a problem this time for here anyways. But farther south it could be. Thanks.

It wont make it as far north as what it did on XMAS and the heaviest snow should be a 5-10" locally 11" band running west southwest to east northeast across ohio

#40 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 11, 2003 6:51 pm

if the transfer to the coast take splace faster or further south...dont expect more than up to 8 and that should be confined to the south

First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE event:

Re: First call accumulations and statistics --- SUN-TUE even

Who is online