Just for Kicks...12zGFS shows a Thanksgiving Noreaster

[Guest]

I d/k about that... I hope it is, but IMHO, it is just going to flip in a couple days...

I dont know rock............Right now this is carrying support from other sources as well besides just the GFS which have been mentioned.

[RNS]

my point exactly

[LMolineux]

IF you take note the 18Z GFS holds the same storm but has it inland. IMHO i feel it will be more east. The 00Z Run will correct it and bring it more east. I think this will be the Major Cities First major storm and snow for sure. But this is over 300 hours out so time to play with changes and time. But it looks to me the 12Z run had the best insight.
18Z surely has a bunch of cold behind it which is scary.

[RNS]

Molineux, i havent seen the 18z GFS so i cant comment, but i feel you may be right, judging by 850-1000 thicknesses, they would support snow inland from the coast, and a mix in the najor cities (as LLVL thicknesses are sufficient to support FRZRN/Sleet, however 500-850 thincknesses are too high, suggesting a warm layer aloft). I really dont like to get into this type of detail from the long range but i do think the event shows promise for those along a line from HGR-ABE-MSV-ALY.

this based on older info of course

[Stormsfury]

IF you take note the 18Z GFS holds the same storm but has it inland. IMHO i feel it will be more east. The 00Z Run will correct it and bring it more east. I think this will be the Major Cities First major storm and snow for sure. But this is over 300 hours out so time to play with changes and time. But it looks to me the 12Z run had the best insight.
18Z surely has a bunch of cold behind it which is scary.

Playing the more SE bias in the MR, are we???





The Day 4 EURO is only SLIGHTLY further east with the storm ...

[LMolineux]

LOL SF i am talkign about the Thanksgiving storm hehe.

[Stormsfury]

LOL SF i am talkign about the Thanksgiving storm hehe.

Oh crap!... LMAO!! ... Oops ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Ji,

Before you fall in love with the GFS, please know that she loves to flirt with snow geese. Once snow lovers succumb to her seductive charts, she has a bad habit of breaking their hearts. Not always, but many times.

Seriously, there does appear to be a reasonable chance of an important storm around Thanksgiving Day. However, odds do not favor a coastal snowstorm:

1) The GFS' south and east bias.
2) November weather that has started in similar fashion to November 2003.

Total November snowfall amounts follow:

Boston: 0.0"-1.0" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/2.8"; Years with T or more: 11/12)
New York City: 0.0"-0.6" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/1.1"; Years with T or more: 8/12)
Washington, DC: 0.0"-0.8" (Extremes in dataset: 0.0"/1.6"; Years with T or more: 8/12)

What this data seems to suggest is that there is the possibility that at the very end of the storm, there might be a brief period of snow or flurries. Still, one should really wait until the event draws closer to try to identify the details, so the above sentence should be seen as a mere possibility at this time and little more. Colder air will likely follow the storm and the month should close on a cold note. But, it does appear that this cold could be of the transient variety (Pacific Jet, SOI, etc.).

For those living and dying with each development in the "analog wars," the November 8-10 cold spell coincided well with a similar shot of cold in 1960. Ok, the GFS isn't the only one who can tease winter weather lovers around here.

[RNS]

Don, im becoming less and less convined that 1960/61 and 1979/80 are the best two analogs. moreso with 1979/80, however i have my reservations about 1960/61 as well. sure, there are some (many) similarities but, there are too many inconsistencies in both analogs for my linking. secondary analogs, sure, they would fit that category well, but as far as primary analogs are concerned...as i said NOT convinced.

[Colin]

Molineux, i havent seen the 18z GFS so i cant comment, but i feel you may be right, judging by 850-1000 thicknesses, they would support snow inland from the coast, and a mix in the najor cities (as LLVL thicknesses are sufficient to support FRZRN/Sleet, however 500-850 thincknesses are too high, suggesting a warm layer aloft). I really dont like to get into this type of detail from the long range but i do think the event shows promise for those along a line from HGR-ABE-MSV-ALY.

this based on older info of course

WOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[donsutherland1]

RNS,

I don't disagree with you. I'm relying on four to a varying extent and not placing undue weight on any single analog.

I just threw up the comparison with 1960 more out of fun given the great winter 1960-61 was. Another fun tidbit: November 13 saw a trace of snow at Newark, NJ, which tied the record for daily snowfall set in 1995. Unfortunately, 1995-96 was a La Nina (C-) winter, so it doesn't fall into the possible analogs.

Overall, it still looks like we'll have a decent winter (average to somewhat above average snowfall), along with a lot of variation in temperatures to keep things exciting.

[WEATHER53]

Yes. I have been predicting a coastal storm, one of the few for the season, in 11/28-12/2 time frame. I do not have the temperature info as to snow or rain. I believe this will be preceeded by a mild 11/20-11/28 period with temps mostly 60+ for Dc metro. It is interesting to note that the frequently mentioned 1989 had two major wind events with 60+ gusts, although of much shorter duration and gusting frequency than the recent event, in DC metro, leading many to categorize it as the "windiest" November since 1953. Additionally, the reversal for December of around -10 departure from norm. to January's plus departure is the greatest single winter monthly reversal since records started at DCA.

[RNS]

good point don, 1995/96 was a weak LN / E QBO winter, however we can still have similar short term patterns (at 1 to 10 day intervals) in which secondary analogs such as 1995/96 show themselvs. the only difference is the large scale and long term patterns which got us to the same place were different. right now there are four analogs (which i will talk about in our winter outlook next week) that we are set on...and for those that are interested, none of the three include the winters of 1958/59, 1960/61, or 1979/80...more importantly though our confidence is high enough that we will be making a very strong stand on seasonal totals in the big cities. i think some will be pleased, however others will not. it will largely depend on where you are.

[RNS]

53,

both deep layer temp, and thickneses would (at this point) indicate little more than a cold rain event in the DCA/BWI metro area...further northwest it another story. this was based on this mornings info, the GFS (as you might be able to guess lol) has once again flipped around and is showing a completey different sequence of events.

[Stormsfury]

Don, im becoming less and less convined that 1960/61 and 1979/80 are the best two analogs. moreso with 1979/80, however i have my reservations about 1960/61 as well. sure, there are some (many) similarities but, there are too many inconsistencies in both analogs for my linking. secondary analogs, sure, they would fit that category well, but as far as primary analogs are concerned...as i said NOT convinced.

I still hold the reservation that I cannot find not one analog is a best fit scenario ... though 1979-1980 does have SOME merits ...

[RNS]

SF, 1979/80 has SOME merit, but what little it has left is quickly being diminished in my opinion ... as is 1960/61. Obviously im not going to share all of my analog forecasting methods with everyone but, i will say that trying to find years which are close or exact matches for all three (or four months if your forecast for march as i do), is senseless.

I know why you like 1979/80...but dont worry dude .... you/ll get your snow!! .

[Stormsfury]

SF, 1979/80 has SOME merit, but what little it has left is quickly being diminished in my opinion ... as is 1960/61. Obviously im not going to share all of my analog forecasting methods with everyone but, i will say that trying to find years which are close or exact matches for all three (or four months if your forecast for march as i do), is senseless.

I know why you like 1979/80...but dont worry dude .... you/ll get your snow!! .

I actually don't remember what kind of winter 1979/1980 was in CHS, but I clearly remember the original President's Day Blizzard in 1979. MAJOR ice storm in CHS (1"-3" of ice) and widespread power outages ...

Let's see, according to the CHS snow events page ...these were the winter weather events in South Carolina that year ...

1980
1/30-2/1.........Ice storm. Less than 1" north of a line from Myrtle Beach to Columbia.
2/4-7..............Freezing rain & sleet occurred over the northern coast.
2/11...............Trace of snow at Loris (Horry County).
2/17...............Trace of snow at Charleston Airport.
3/1-4.............Winter mixture amounts to less than 2" in southern SC.

[therock1811]

I d/k about that... I hope it is, but IMHO, it is just going to flip in a couple days...

I dont know rock............Right now this is carrying support from other sources as well besides just the GFS which have been mentioned.

Good point...you and I have talked about this on AIM (and btw, sorry I had to run last night, but dad was home), but I was referring to GFS's tendency to flipflop...I still think it could happen......

[RNS]

I actually don't remember what kind of winter 1979/1980 was in CHS, but I clearly remember the original President's Day Blizzard in 1979. MAJOR ice storm in CHS (1"-3" of ice) and widespread power outages ...

Let's see, according to the CHS snow events page ...these were the winter weather events in South Carolina that year ...

1980
1/30-2/1.........Ice storm. Less than 1" north of a line from Myrtle Beach to Columbia.
2/4-7..............Freezing rain & sleet occurred over the northern coast.
2/11...............Trace of snow at Loris (Horry County).
2/17...............Trace of snow at Charleston Airport.
3/1-4.............Winter mixture amounts to less than 2" in southern SC

1978/79...is also a secondary analog

[Stormsfury]

I actually don't remember what kind of winter 1979/1980 was in CHS, but I clearly remember the original President's Day Blizzard in 1979. MAJOR ice storm in CHS (1"-3" of ice) and widespread power outages ...

Let's see, according to the CHS snow events page ...these were the winter weather events in South Carolina that year ...

1980
1/30-2/1.........Ice storm. Less than 1" north of a line from Myrtle Beach to Columbia.
2/4-7..............Freezing rain & sleet occurred over the northern coast.
2/11...............Trace of snow at Loris (Horry County).
2/17...............Trace of snow at Charleston Airport.
3/1-4.............Winter mixture amounts to less than 2" in southern SC

1978/79...is also a secondary analog

Hmmm.....I was a little bit too young to remember what the entire winter 1978/1979 was like ... just that memorable icestorm ... (and the last SEVERE icestorm in the CHS area. There have been others including the Jan 2002 event just north of CHS or the 1988 storm which started out as sleet all day, then changing to ZR, but the ZR fell so heavily that it actually had a hard time freezing due to latent heat release ... I believe it was 29-30º but the rain rates were in excess of 1"-2" per hour. Ended up with ¼"-½" of ice accretions but that was with 2½" liquid.)

SF