EURO advertising a change ... Blue Norther style

[GAStorm]

Major occlusion if the last night's EURO verifies. Quite a setup probably reminiscent of the setup in November 1950 (don't have any maps) Great Appalachain Snowstorm. It was colder in Atlanta, GA than many locales in the NE.

November 1950 (25th) - The HIGH in ATL was 17º and the LOW was 3º.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/cgi-bin/xmc ... &year=1950

Now that's cold!! :o I had no idea it could get that cold here in November! I have a feeling we could get some really good shots of arctic air this winter, which would be similar to '95. The high temp here didn't get out of the teens then, but it was in January. If we saw that in November again, it would seem like the next ice age was on the way!

[tomboudreau]

I for one person, don't need a storm this weekend or early next week. On top of working 10 hour days and fighting some sort of viral infection, my wife and I are moving this weekend into early next week. We have to be out of our current residents by Nov 1....and have already started getting some of our stuff over to the new place. I hope this storm doesnt come, well...it can come...but not this weekend.

[Mr Bob]

The 12z GFS continues to support some severe weather from the SE(AL, GA) into the Carolina Coastal Plain from Sunday into Monday....Also, as the primary low occludes back into the Great Lakes, notice that nice little lake enhancement over the Chicago metro area (132 Hour GFS)...A little early in the season for snow?...yes, but if it were only two or three weeks later it would be very interesting...

[NJwx15]

Am I reading this right? The Low actually moves from SW PA on Day 6 to the UP of MI on Day 7? That's one hell of a negative tilt.

-Matt

Major occlusion if the last night's EURO verifies. Quite a setup probably reminiscent of the setup in November 1950 (don't have any maps) Great Appalachain Snowstorm. It was colder in Atlanta, GA than many locales in the NE.

November 1950 (25th) - The HIGH in ATL was 17º and the LOW was 3º.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/cgi-bin/xmc ... &year=1950

I was trying to think of what storm was like that. Tnhat was the storm where Pitt PA was 9º with a raging blizzard, while buffalo NY was 63º, that is one hell of a tilt that model shows

[Stormsfury]

The 12z GFS continues to support some severe weather from the SE(AL, GA) into the Carolina Coastal Plain from Sunday into Monday....Also, as the primary low occludes back into the Great Lakes, notice that nice little lake enhancement over the Chicago metro area (132 Hour GFS)...A little early in the season for snow?...yes, but if it were only two or three weeks later it would be very interesting...

The GFSx also with the ECMWF indicates quite a bit of moisture transport into the Coastal Plain of South Carolina so thunderstorms remain quite a good possibility. The one main interest is IF there's any resemblance of an in-situ wedge inland just enough to stabilize the atmosphere from producing severe wx, but at the same time, the setup is looking a little more ominous with time.

The operational GFS spins quite a low in response to a strong vort lobe diving SSEward thru the Great Plains and taking the deepening low northward. (Looking tropicalwise at Nicholas and the Caribbean, I noticed the GFDL looks strikingly similar to the GFS in regards to the Eastern US Storm - I wonder why? ..LOL..)

Based solely on the progged tracks of the model guidance at this time, it looks that any low level cold air (wedging) would quickly be replaced with a very strong southerly flow out ahead of the storm system and quite possibly have a chance of generating some strong convection even into the Mid-Atlantic Region.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Severe weather aspect increasing ... details in the USA Weather Discussion Forum on this topic below ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=17473

[Mr Bob]

I would just be careful with how intense...this is a dry stable regime and it is going to take a lot to change the boundary layer into a good moist unstable atmosphere...much less create the needed instability...

[Stormsfury]

I would just be careful with how intense...this is a dry stable regime and it is going to take a lot to change the boundary layer into a good moist unstable atmosphere...much less create the needed instability...

While I am concerned about a possible in-situ wedge, strong southerly winds/southeasterly winds looks to have quite a dramatic effect on changing the boundary layer air. The moisture profiles indicate that there would be quite a period of opportunity to destablize the atmosphere (with plenty of sunshine out ahead of the squall line). I was looking at the moisture returns and the temperature profiles ... the temperature profiles look quite supportive ... Looking at a general +10ºC to +15ºC from PA east and southward ... Gonna have a look at some Meteograms in a bit in some selected areas.

Day 4 850mb Temperatures
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

Day 5 850mb Temperatures
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest