No Extreme Cold Likely in the Eastern U.S. Next Week

[JCT777]

Yes, Don - it does appear as though this upcoming cool shot in the east will not be extreme (but still pretty chilly), and then the temps should start to rise - to above normal levels by early next week. I also agree that the first half of November should be warm in the east.

[Guest]

Just a quick update...

The above to much above normal heights have continued to expand both eastward and northward from the Southwestern U.S. Over the course of the next 5-10 days, those heights will have shifted to the Eastern third of the United States.

Mirroring this northward and eastward progression of heights, above normal temperatures are also spreading in similar fashion.

What this means is that after the coming weekend, temperatures should be warming up in the Eastern U.S. While brief cooldowns are possible, the general trend should be for rising temperatures, with the month ending above normal in the East.

None of those brief cooldowns should contain extreme cold relative to the season.

As for the first half of next month?

Based on a combination of analogs, the NAO (which appears to have bottomed out and should become positive near the end of October or during the beginning of November), and the expectation that the pattern becomes progressive at around the same time, it appears that temperatures will likely run near to above normal in the Eastern third of the United States. A generally positive PNA should help preclude the possibility of extreme warmth.

In sum, a first glance at the coming month reveals that the first half of November should experience some chilly shots but temperatures should average near to above normal during that timeframe in the Eastern third of the United States.

Unsure if you have seen any of the latest info on the NAO/AO/PNA Don but from what i just seen it shows the NAO in the slightly negative phase around the First of November and as well a Negative AO by then as well and the PNA is pretty much what you stated (Not much on the positive side however but still slightly positive)....................More or less i dont forsee any duration of warmer then normal temps in the Eastern areas of the US...................Analogs as has been proven so far this year can more or less be thrown out the door......................I have seen to much debate on this elsewhere which i know you have as well and as well it seems everyone has thier ideas about which analogs they like best such as the case with the 60/61 and that 79-80 analogs for starters......................This year hasnt been like any other starting with the tropics with having a April system and as well having 20 (Possibly more) Depressions in the atlantic basen....................This month so far is tossing out the 79-80 And as well unless we do get a mega system on Midweek the 60-61 can be thrown out as well.................Which this doesnt even consider the QBO and Sun activity which adding those throws most analogs out the door IMO......................Personally i like trends and such with alot less added analogs for this year........................More or less keep a eye on the QBO (when it switches) El'Nino(probably declared by no later then Jan 1st IMO), NAO,AO,PNA and as well Sun activity.........................Not sure how much research you have done on this Don but if you look back thru time that sun and as well combined with the rest i mentioned about above will show a clear cut pattern (Hench my winter outlook)..................

Feel free to add more into this...............I do value your opinion's alot.......

[donsutherland1]

King of Weather,

I have seen the ensemble and GFS forecasts for the various indices. Bear in mind the low coefficient of correlation for the 14-day NAO forecast (0.1454). Given the high degree of uncertainty associated with the 14-day forecast--the correlation falls off sharply after 10 days (0.4390)--I take into consideration additional factors aside from the 14-day GFS forecasts.

Clearly, forecasting fluctuations in the NAO is a difficult endeavor.

With regard to the PNA, it would not surprise me if it swung neutral to negative for a time in early November.

Overall, while I'm not expecting exceptional warmth, I do believe that the first half of November will, on average, be near normal to somewhat above normal with regard to temperatures in the eastern third of the U.S. This does not mean that there won't be one or two decent shots of cold air, just that the warmth will win out over the cold for the most part.

Finally, like you, I'm watching developments with regard to the QBO, which should show its hand with the October score. Solar activity should not be a problem this winter. Also, I'm not discounting the possible development of a weak El Nino, though it is possible that the warming slows or partially reverses for a time.