Nam 18z has snowfall in seattle Sunday morning. 36 hoursSeries of Storms to affect the West with more Snow/rain/win
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
LOL just look.
1-5 around San Francisco.-
Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
ECMWF has a 990 low inland with cold air in place. I am starting to think that Seattle or portland or San Fran Sacramento or L.A may see some significant type of storm. 144 hours.
cmc at 132 hours.-
Metalicwx220
Issued by The National Weather Service Special Weather Statement
Medford, OR
3:04 am PST, Sat., Feb. 12, 2011
... COLDER... WINDIER... AND WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...
THE RECENT TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO END LATER TODAY... THEN TRANSITION TO A COLD... WET AND WINDY PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WETTER AND WINDIER THAN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEE THE TEXT OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR DETAILS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE COAST RANGE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST OREGON... WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY... AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 6000 FEET... BUT WILL DROP TO 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY. MAJOR PASSES... INCLUDING THOSE ALONG I-5... WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COLD... WET... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY... AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH WATER LEVELS ON SOME OF THE COASTAL RIVERS SUCH AS THE COQUILLE MAY BECOME A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SERIES OF STORMS NEXT WEEK.
Medford, OR
3:04 am PST, Sat., Feb. 12, 2011
... COLDER... WINDIER... AND WETTER WEATHER NEXT WEEK...
THE RECENT TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO END LATER TODAY... THEN TRANSITION TO A COLD... WET AND WINDY PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WETTER AND WINDIER THAN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM... WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEE THE TEXT OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR DETAILS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE COAST RANGE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST OREGON... WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY... AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 6000 FEET... BUT WILL DROP TO 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY. MAJOR PASSES... INCLUDING THOSE ALONG I-5... WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
COLD... WET... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY... AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH WATER LEVELS ON SOME OF THE COASTAL RIVERS SUCH AS THE COQUILLE MAY BECOME A CONCERN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SERIES OF STORMS NEXT WEEK.
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Metalicwx220
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE FRONT THAT
APPROACHES MONDAY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRAMATICALLY
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LIKELY FALLING INTO THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH SNOW
LEVELS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET. ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY
KEEPS SNOW OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS. DETAILS IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK ARE UNCLEAR AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE DEALING
CONSISTENTLY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW NEAR THE COAST.
TOLLESON
Portland NWS discussion
APPROACHES MONDAY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRAMATICALLY
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BY TUESDAY...LIKELY FALLING INTO THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AND THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. THE COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH SNOW
LEVELS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET. ONSHORE FLOW PROBABLY
KEEPS SNOW OFF THE VALLEY FLOORS. DETAILS IN THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK ARE UNCLEAR AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE DEALING
CONSISTENTLY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW NEAR THE COAST.
TOLLESON
Portland NWS discussion
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Metalicwx220
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...12/00Z NAM/GFS IN.
THE UNUSUALLY LONG JANUARY/FEBRUARY DRY SPELL WILL END THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH...THEN THE
PATTERN WILL DECISIVELY SHIFT TO A COLD...WET...AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE WHOLE MEDFORD CWA.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...BUT
IT HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FLOW ALOFT IS NOW NEARLY
ZONAL. ONE OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE IS NOW
MOVING ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON STATE. DOWN IN THE MEDFORD
CWA...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST BUT ONLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN...BUT
THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (GFS) OR EVENING (NAM)...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AT THAT TIME. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH COAST...UMPQUA
BASIN...AND THE ADJACENT CASCADES IF THE NAM VERIFIES. THE GFS IS
A BIT WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT IT STILL
KEEPS THE BULK OF IT FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH.
MORE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE BACK NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REVERSE AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS IT
DOES SO...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
TWO STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
WEEKEND SYSTEMS...WITH A LOT MORE RAIN AND WIND...AND A LOT COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT TOO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THOSE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST OREGON...WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR 6000
FEET...BUT WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY. WATCHES WILL GO OUT FOR THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY OR
SUNDAY MORNING IF THE FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE
AND EJECTS SHORT WAVES OVER THE AREA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ITSELF
WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT ENERGY COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS IT DOES
SO. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD...WET...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN SOMETIME DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEDFORD
CWA SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST...AND AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MORE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO TRY AND FORECAST THE EXACT
TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF IT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 AM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...12/00Z NAM/GFS IN.
THE UNUSUALLY LONG JANUARY/FEBRUARY DRY SPELL WILL END THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH...THEN THE
PATTERN WILL DECISIVELY SHIFT TO A COLD...WET...AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE WHOLE MEDFORD CWA.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING...BUT
IT HAS WEAKENED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FLOW ALOFT IS NOW NEARLY
ZONAL. ONE OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE IS NOW
MOVING ONSHORE OVER WASHINGTON STATE. DOWN IN THE MEDFORD
CWA...THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST BUT ONLY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN...BUT
THE MEDFORD CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (GFS) OR EVENING (NAM)...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AT THAT TIME. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH COAST...UMPQUA
BASIN...AND THE ADJACENT CASCADES IF THE NAM VERIFIES. THE GFS IS
A BIT WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...BUT IT STILL
KEEPS THE BULK OF IT FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND SISKIYOUS NORTH.
MORE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT THE STORM TRACK WILL MOVE BACK NORTH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REVERSE AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH AS IT
DOES SO...BUT THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
TWO STRONGER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
WEEKEND SYSTEMS...WITH A LOT MORE RAIN AND WIND...AND A LOT COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT TOO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE HIGH WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THOSE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST OREGON...WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR 6000
FEET...BUT WILL DROP TO 3000 TO 3500 FEET BEHIND THE FRONT
TUESDAY. WATCHES WILL GO OUT FOR THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY OR
SUNDAY MORNING IF THE FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.
THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A TROUGH DIGS OFFSHORE
AND EJECTS SHORT WAVES OVER THE AREA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ITSELF
WILL MOVE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY...BUT ENERGY COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE IT TO DIG SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS IT DOES
SO. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD...WET...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN SOMETIME DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEDFORD
CWA SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE DOWN THE COAST...AND AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MORE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO TRY AND FORECAST THE EXACT
TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF IT.
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Metalicwx220
NORTH WEST LATE WINTER THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
PST SUNDAY FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* ACCUMULATIONS...LOCAL ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNT BAKER...AND AT MOUNT RAINIER.
SNOWFALL AT BOTH STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASS WILL BE MUCH
LESS...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES FALLING MAINLY TONIGHT.
* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CASCADES THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY....THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
* SNOW LEVELS...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 4000 FEET TODAY THEN
FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACTS...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNINGS MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
Target Area: West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes
PST SUNDAY FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST SUNDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* ACCUMULATIONS...LOCAL ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH
CASCADES...ESPECIALLY AT MOUNT BAKER...AND AT MOUNT RAINIER.
SNOWFALL AT BOTH STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASS WILL BE MUCH
LESS...WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES FALLING MAINLY TONIGHT.
* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH CASCADES THIS
MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY....THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
* SNOW LEVELS...THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE NEAR 4000 FEET TODAY THEN
FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACTS...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNINGS MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. THOSE PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS...WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
Target Area: West Slopes Central Cascades and Passes
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Metalicwx220
FEBRUARY 2011: temperature 44.5 ° (0.5 ° above avg.); precipitation 4" (1" below avg.); Feb 1-7: Periods of rain and drizzle, seasonable; Feb 8-11: Partly sunny, cool; Feb 12-15: Showers, windy, mild; Feb 16-19: Sprinkles, mild; Feb 20-25: Periods of rain and snow, cold; Feb 26-28: Rainy, cool.
MARCH 2011: temperature 47.5 ° (0.5 ° above avg.); precipitation 4" (avg.); Mar 1-4: Heavy rain, then partly sunny, cool; Mar 5-8: Rainy, mild; Mar 9-10: Partly sunny, cool; Mar 11-14: Rain and snow, chilly; Mar 15-22: Sunny, turning warm; Mar 23-26: Showers, seasonable; Mar 27-31: Sunny, warm.
Annual Weather Summary: November 2010 to October 2011
Winter temperatures will be slightly above normal, on average, with slightly below-normal precipitation but above-normal snowfall in most places. The coldest periods will occur in mid-December and mid- to late February, with the snowiest periods in mid-December and late February.
Portland and Seattle.... They nail these forecast.
MARCH 2011: temperature 47.5 ° (0.5 ° above avg.); precipitation 4" (avg.); Mar 1-4: Heavy rain, then partly sunny, cool; Mar 5-8: Rainy, mild; Mar 9-10: Partly sunny, cool; Mar 11-14: Rain and snow, chilly; Mar 15-22: Sunny, turning warm; Mar 23-26: Showers, seasonable; Mar 27-31: Sunny, warm.
Annual Weather Summary: November 2010 to October 2011
Winter temperatures will be slightly above normal, on average, with slightly below-normal precipitation but above-normal snowfall in most places. The coldest periods will occur in mid-December and mid- to late February, with the snowiest periods in mid-December and late February.
Portland and Seattle.... They nail these forecast.
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Metalicwx220
UUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM............ this image is stupid. no idea why it only shows a portion. it has snow for los angeles-
Metalicwx220
There is no reason for it not to snow in San francisco with the consistently. This image has a storm off the coast with the freezing line in southern california. It also has a blizzard in the dakotas.-
brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
That would be insane, a strong storm for SF is not uncommon (friend had her bedroom window broken out by one a couple years ago, they had sustained winds in the 40s and 50s), but if they had a really good snow storm...just wow. .10 to .25 yields most likely 1 to 3 inches of snow (depends on how wet it is though, here in NY we've been having very dry snows, with ratios of 20:1 to 25:1)...I would think a west coast snow storm would have levels closer to 15:1 or 10:1 though.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
Re: Significant Pacific Northwest Storm Feb. 15-18
Wow...SF needs new people to write their AFDs...no imagination at all, as this is their entire AFD:
000
FXUS66 KMTR 130032
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PST SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT WARMING AS ROBUSTLY AS ADVERTISED AND AS OF 2 PM WERE MOSTLY
JUST IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
TODAY ARE IN JEOPARDY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME
ONSHORE WITH SFO-WMC NOW 1.2 MB...WHICH MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THIS.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ARE ALSO UP QUITE A BIT OVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE
FLOW.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW IN EARNEST ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS
THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES A SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE UNSTABLE AND COOL
ONE. BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A COLD UPPER
TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH. BY WEEK`S END...A COLD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM SATURDAY...DRY AIRMASS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL/W PI
Two paragraphs? We (Newport/Morehead City, NC/Jackson, KY/Buffalo, NY) have two paragraphs just to describe what is happening today, let alone over the next week!
000
FXUS66 KMTR 130032
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
245 PM PST SAT FEB 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:45 PM PST SATURDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT WARMING AS ROBUSTLY AS ADVERTISED AND AS OF 2 PM WERE MOSTLY
JUST IN THE 60S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS UNLIKELY THAT ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
TODAY ARE IN JEOPARDY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BECOME
ONSHORE WITH SFO-WMC NOW 1.2 MB...WHICH MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THIS.
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ARE ALSO UP QUITE A BIT OVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE SWITCH TO ONSHORE
FLOW.
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN TOMORROW IN EARNEST ACROSS THE DISTRICT AS
THE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES A SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE UNSTABLE AND COOL
ONE. BY SUNDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE STATE. RAIN IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH A
STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. A COLD UPPER
TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SYSTEMS ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH. BY WEEK`S END...A COLD UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM SATURDAY...DRY AIRMASS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SS
AVIATION/MARINE: BELL/W PI
Two paragraphs? We (Newport/Morehead City, NC/Jackson, KY/Buffalo, NY) have two paragraphs just to describe what is happening today, let alone over the next week!
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Metalicwx220
I know right then when the last second comes they will try to do it all IF it happens and people won't have much time to prepare IF!!!!!!! LOL they have a significant snowstorm. 
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Metalicwx220
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Metalicwx220
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