Florida winter thread 2010-11

[Ivanhater]

Certainly did snow in Florida today..just north of Pensacola

[havok100]

Had some frost on the car this morning in Miami (Shorecrest Area) just north of 79th Street causeway and east of NE 10 Ave. 2nd time this year .

[frigidice77]

Now to think of it, snow doesnt even seem rare anymore in florida. They see it every year

[HeatherAKC]

NW Miami-Dade, Miami Lakes....frost on the truck bed cover this AM. 2nd time this year, indeed!




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[Ivanhater]

Now to think of it, snow doesnt even seem rare anymore in florida. They see it every year

You must have not been around long. It is VERY rare to see snow in Florida.

I see you mentioning last year a lot for comparisons. Last year was an extreme anomaly for cold in the Southeast, it is in no way the norm.

[MGC]

Snow may be rare by historical standards, but it does seem to be snowing in Florida and across the Gulf South more often the past few years. Hope we get dumped on this winter...MGC

[jdray]

No snow or precip otherwise, but I did hear reports from SE AL and W FL of some flakes a'falling.

Yup, my wife's cousin updated her facebook with reports of flurries/light sticking in SE AL (Dothan area)

[kevin]

[NDG]

Wouldn't it be good news if today's 12z & 00z runs of the GFS were to be right, but the euro is still sticking to its gun of a frigid solution. Hoping the euro is wrong.

[psyclone]

let's hope the euro relents on its extremely cold solution. the potential for a wicked advection freeze does seem very real but it could easily be something less.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z ECMWF...

- Low temperature of 30-31F in Orlando (MCO) next Tuesday morning
- Low temperature of 29-30F in Orlando (MCO) next Wednesday morning

Still very cold, especially for mid December, but not quite as extreme as earlier ECMWF runs that showed temperatures getting down to 24-25F. If tonight's 00z run is correct, then next weeks event will only be slightly colder than what was experienced this morning (when MCO hit 31F). None the less, two back-to-back freezes in Orlando, and 3 total freezes prior to Christmastime is definitely a rare occurrence for the urban areas of central Florida.

[NDG]

We couldn't ask for better news this morning with the euro now backing out of its extreme cold solution. Last 2 runs of the GFS are even warmer than the euro, I can even take a compromise run between the two, even better for FL. But it still looks like a fairly frosty morning for Wednesday morning across the Peninsula, but I would take it versus having a devastating deep freeze

[boca]

I saw that this morning that the GFS and Euro has backed off on the solution. They say that the trough over the east won't dig as far south as originally thought.The 850 line will be over Central Florida as opposed to the Keys.

[psyclone]

this is terrific news. my nws grid now has the lowest temp on monday night of 39... a heat wave! it now looks to be WARMER than what we just endured.

[Steve H.]

Ughh


AN EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS STRONG NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS. AS FAR AS THE NEXT 7 ARE
CONCERNED...THE TWO STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS OVER THE WRN
ALEUTIANS AND ICELAND WILL BE WELL ON THEIR WAY TOWARDS MERGING
INTO ONE GIANT POSITIVE ANOMALY OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME 3-5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED
WITH BOTH OF THOSE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS. S OF THE
BLOCKING POSITIVE ANOMALIES ..A TROF RIDGE TROF PATTERN FROM THE
140W TO 70W WILL PREVAIL WITH A SLOWLY FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE
SWRN CONUS.

SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF EXPECTED IN THE E COAST STATES SUN.
AFTER AN ARCTIC FROPA...
VERY STRONG NNW FLOW BEHIND A DEEP SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE TROF ALONG
THE E COAST WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA WELL S INTO
THE ERN CONUS...CAUSING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
AND DAMAGING FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPS INTO THE CITRUS BELT IN FL.
THE HEAVIEST PCPN IS LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN IN THE WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN NEW ENG. BUT
RAPID COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CHANGE RA TO SN IN THE
CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS WITH HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE
AREAS....IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY TOTALS IN FAVORED AREAS TO THE
LEE OF THE LAKES.

[northjaxpro]

I would not be the least bit surprised going into this weekend to see the models trend back on board to being much colder with regards to the next arctic air intrusion early next week.

The Euro model run tonight is what I am curious to see and should be interesting indeed.

[Ntxw]

I would not be the least bit surprised going into this weekend to see the models trend back on board to being much colder with regards to the next arctic air intrusion early next week.

The Euro model run tonight is what I am curious to see and should be interesting indeed.

That will depend on the storm. Currently all of the models (the Euro has been content from day 1 of a great lakes storm) have gone towards an upper midwest system. This won't drag down as much cold air or deeper trough. If somehow the storm forms over the south and digs a deeper trough, then it would be able to pull down much colder air further south. However, that is almost a thousand miles difference and such drastic changes in models aren't likely with such consensus, though not impossible.

[frigidice77]

Next week the temperature dont even look that cold anymore.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not according to Miami NWS.
Mon-Wed...this is the period of highest concern and greatest
impact to our service area. A very cold airmass will surge into
South Florida behind the cold front. We have been closely monitoring
1000-850mb thickness values off the GFS and European model (ecmwf)...and both have
been indicative of a cold wave comparable or possibly a tad colder
compared to the recent one we are just getting out of. In
fact...given the consistency in the cold signal form both
models...confidence is increasing to the point that a freeze
outlook has been issued for interior South Florida...including Glades,
Hendry, inland Palm Beach, inland Collier, inland Broward, and
inland Miami-Dade counties.


We are now forecasting upper 20s/lower 30s for the Lake
Okeechobee region and lower 30s all the way down to the Redland of
Miami-Dade. Highs were trended down below GFS MOS...which has a
high bias in these anomalous events and being several days out in
time. So have adjusted high temperatures more in line with HPC numbers
behind the front. We will closely monitor trends over the coming
days...to see if models warm or cool...or remain steady. Current
thinking is that we may need a slight downward adjustment to
temperatures Mon-Wed...but would like to see more model trends before
making this move.

[psyclone]

I think you nailed it ntxw. a more northern track of the midwest storm should result in a less extreme arctic incursion. in addition, such a track would result in a more northern position of snowcover, further mitigating the threat. clearly, there is still a risk but i suspect the danger of a severe freeze is meaningfully lower vs 24 hours ago. i am cautiously optimistic at this point.