Texas Winter 2010-2011

[TexasStorm]

We are already still above normal for this time of the year temp wise. Since the La Nina is predicted to be moderate to strong I would guess we are going to stay high and dry. I do not expect a repeat of last winter in any way. I really don't wish for snow/ice anymore..... I have to be at work anyway lol.

[gboudx]

I will have my office North Texas Halloween analog forecast out shortly after the 1st of November. As many of you know that my winter forecast is based on what Halloween brings NTX. It has proven to be correct for 9 straight yrs now and I'm pretty sure it will prove correct again.

Halloween is now in range on the DFW NWS. So far a high of 80 on Sunday. Yikes!

[CaptinCrunch]

I will have my office North Texas Halloween analog forecast out shortly after the 1st of November. As many of you know that my winter forecast is based on what Halloween brings NTX. It has proven to be correct for 9 straight yrs now and I'm pretty sure it will prove correct again.

Halloween is now in range on the DFW NWS. So far a high of 80 on Sunday. Yikes!

Avg H/L temp for Halloween is 72/51, and we will be above that for sure. Right now it looks like we will continue the above avg temps right on thru to Thanksgiving. Things will cool down and temps will stay in the mid to upper 70's but I really dont see any cold air in NTX till Dec.

[mpic]

Yes!!!

[natlib]

Looks like very little winter this year!

[mysterymachinebl]

There are frost advisories out for the counties directly to the north and west of Dallas and Ft Worth for tonight.

[Ptarmigan]

2000 was the last good La Nina I can remember, though 07 was one also. Man December that year was chilly brrr. It can happen!

I remember winter of 2000-2001, which was La Nina. Winter of 2000-2001 was cooler and wetter, despite being La Nina. There are other factors as well, like North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific-North American, etc. I do remember winter of 2007-08, it was rather wet.

[Portastorm]

Considering that Dallas is well above normal today (on Halloween), I'm thinking the Captin's Halloween analog for how winter will go for North Texas will be "above normal temps and below normal precip."

And he'll probably have a good forecast with that one.

[natlib]

I would love a mild winter with one huge snowy arctic blast for just a few days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would love a mild winter with one huge snowy arctic blast for just a few days.

i second this. Im not a fan of the massive cold outbreak with no winter weather like we had in early Jan last year.

[natlib]

Its starting to look like a cold Thanksgiving. I remember one Thanksgiving we had hail and Tornado warnings one night then it snowed the next day. Might get interesting.

[Tireman4]

Its starting to look like a cold Thanksgiving. I remember one Thanksgiving we had hail and Tornado warnings one night then it snowed the next day. Might get interesting.

It might indeed.

[CaptinCrunch]

Considering that Dallas is well above normal today (on Halloween), I'm thinking the Captin's Halloween analog for how winter will go for North Texas will be "above normal temps and below normal precip."

And he'll probably have a good forecast with that one.

Well your right about that Porta...lol

I been behind on getting my NTX Halloween Winter Analog together, my youngest boy's football team is in the playoffs and host the Bantam American Conference Championship this Saturday, we trying to reach our 2nd BVFA SuperBowl in 3 yrs. As a matter of fact all 3 of our Kennedale Wildcat Teams are in the Championship for there grade level. (Bantam 1st/2nd grade) (Minor 3rd/4th grade) (Major 5th/6th grade)

You are correct about Halloween this year, it averaged +7 degrees above the norm, so by rule of thumb this winter will be above normal in temps and below normal with precip, BUT, this year will see some wild swings and yes NTX does have a good chance of some winter precip this season. On avg Dec-Fed will be slightly warmer temp wise, but we may see avg precip, this will be due to more ridging out west andf drive polar air south along the eastern side of the rockies.


Hopefully I will get it out in the next week or 2, Football season is over after the 20th of this month.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend of the overnight 00Z run. While there are some minor differences on how that model wants to handle all the 'cold air', it is becoming a bit clear that an early season Arctic High Pressure will spill S into the Plains bringing some chilly temps and even possible cold rain chances to TX for Thanksgiving. Areas to our N (Panhandle and N TX) may even see some precip of the frozen variety.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend of the overnight 00Z run. While there are some minor differences on how that model wants to handle all the 'cold air', it is becoming a bit clear that an early season Arctic High Pressure will spill S into the Plains bringing some chilly temps and even possible cold rain chances to TX for Thanksgiving. Areas to our N (Panhandle and N TX) may even see some precip of the frozen variety.

12z Euro today shows cold air coming down Thanksgiving week after holding it off for some time up north with forcing behind it. With the gradient around the southern plains I can see how that could pan out.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting snip from Brownville this afternoon. Ah, the good ole days...

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INITIALLY OVER THE BERING SEA BUT CENTERED OVER
ALASKA ON TUESDAY WILL UNLEASH ITS FURY BY MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RUSH SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND THE DESOLATE PLAINS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE MORE THAN BARBED WIRE FENCES TO IMPEDE ITS STAMPEDE. A
1030 MB HIGH WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONT
KNOCKING ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS` DOOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CWA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY AIR. TEMPS
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THIS
EARLY TASTE OF NORTHERN AIR.



Midland/Odessa chimes in...

WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. COOLER
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THAT AFTERNOON...AND COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AND ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES NEXT
WEEKEND.



As well as Dallas/Ft Worth...

LOOKING AHEAD BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN THAT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR OUR
FIRST MAJOR COLD OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.

[HockeyTx82]

From our friends at the Ft Worth NWS......... Last bit is interesting espically reading your post above.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2010/
AFTER A COOL MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE REGION...A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL COVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES OVER NORTH TEXAS BY THIS
EVENING. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY AIR EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ALL UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME LIGHT RAIN
IN AN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY.

THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR AN
INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER AIR TO NORTH TEXAS THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.

[srainhoutx]

Delayed, but not denied seems to be the theme this morning. When have we seen this flip flopping via guidance before?

[utweather]

From our friends at the Ft Worth NWS......... Last bit is interesting espically reading your post above.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2010/


THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR AN
INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER AIR TO NORTH TEXAS THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.

Ughh that was a rather fast flip flop. I was starting to get my hopes up when having to make that long drive up north for Turkeyday. Oh well..

[Portastorm]

Better look at today's 12z runs ... they are flipping (or is it flopping) back to a chilly Thanksgiving weekend for Texas.