jinftl wrote:Here in Florida, I would hazard to guess that we will not see a repeat of the cold snap from earlier this month in terms of both intensity and especially duration in the coming weeks. No doubt we will see cold fronts of varying intensity...and it is not impossible that some areas have yet to still reach their lowest minimum temps this winter....but the chance of such a cold snap basically lasting for 2 weeks again is slim.
Climatology and temperature stats would both suggest there is certainly alot of potential cold weather ahead in the next 6-8 weeks (although the forecast for at least the next 10 days shows no signs of that), but I don't anticipate the type of blocking pattern we just saw with any remaining cold snaps this winter. That pattern allowed for front after to front to sweep down through the state. Rather, I would expect more 'typical' cold snaps...2 or 3 days/nights in duration and then moderation.
If a more typical el nino pattern emerges, it would be less likely that florida will see any additional freeze threats from now through spring. Instead we may see more rain-induced cool temps, rather than arctic invasions.
I think this will prove to be accurate. It's interesting to note that while the first half of January was so cold, the second half has been rather mild and often downright warm and humid. Through next weekend, only weak cold fronts in the forecast dropping nighttime lows to the upper 50s.
At least in South Florida, when you start getting to this point in January, the chances of major cold events start decreasing rather steeply. Not to say that kind of weather *can't* happen in February, but I do believe it becomes less likely. In my decades of living here, the second half of December and the first half of January has generally been the coldest part of the winter.