Florida Winter - Rain and above average temps!

[Extremeweatherguy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
704 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2010

FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-021200-
/O.EXP.KMLB.LW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100102T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.A.0001.100103T0600Z-100103T1400Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-OSCEOLA-OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...
SANFORD...KISSIMMEE...ST CLOUD...OKEECHOBEE...DAYTONA BEACH...
CLERMONT
704 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2010

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL USHER MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WATCH AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 30 TO 32 IN THE WATCH
AREA...WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER RURAL LOCATIONS
OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WINDS DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR LESS IN
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WILL ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO FORM...
ESPECIALLY IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

INTERESTS WITH COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD START MAKING
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS. MAKE SURE YOUR HOME HEATING SYSTEM
IS IN PROPER WORKING ORDER.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Freeze watch now upgraded to a freeze warning for a good chunk of Florida.

[NDG]

Hmm, freeze warnings. I guess they want to be safe, a lot of liability issues with all of the agriculture.
The only hope is that the NAM is right in mid & upper level clouds moving into the Peninsula later on tonight, but might be a little too late, and that the winds stay up, which they should. Tomorrow night even more cloud cover forecasted by the NAM.

[NDG]

I am concerned about Monday night, cloud cover appears that it will be slim to none and CAA will be much stronger.

[jdray]

Lows forecasted for my house here in NE Florida
25F
24F
22F
22F
26F
I might stay above freezing Thursday night.
Fun cold snap.

[NDG]

I don't want to sound like the all clear, but so far so good tonight at least for the Orlando area, at 10 PM EDT temps were running a good 4-5 degrees warmer than they were being forecasted for that time, so temps are not falling as fast at least through now, and even more good news is that indeed it looks like upper level clouds will be moving in before daybreak so temps may stop falling a couple of hours than usual. Like I said earlier, Monday and Tuesday night we may not be so lucky unless clouds hang in there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't want to sound like the all clear, but so far so good tonight at least for the Orlando area, at 10 PM EDT temps were running a good 4-5 degrees warmer than they were being forecasted for that time, so temps are not falling as fast at least through now, and even more good news is that indeed it looks like upper level clouds will be moving in before daybreak so temps may stop falling a couple of hours than usual. Like I said earlier, Monday and Tuesday night we may not be so lucky unless clouds hang in there.

Yeah, it definitely is looking better for the big cities of central Florida tonight. They might still flirt with frosty or freezing temperatures by morning, but overall this should not be a widespread damaging freeze around Orlando and Tampa I think. As you pointed out though, the next few nights might not be as kind. Monday and Tuesday nights could definitely be the ones to watch, with a more widespread freeze for the populated areas of central Florida looking more and more likely.

[JonathanBelles]

Somebody change the title...its WAY wrong!!

Anyway...currently 48 degrees here, and I cant wait for the 30's!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest 00z GFS MOS is quite impressive for central Florida. Check out the low temperatures it is showing for Orlando, FL over the next several days...

Tonight - 36F
Sunday night - 27F
Monday night - 30F
Tuesday night - 25F
Wednesday night - 31F

If those 27F and 25F numbers play out, then hard freeze warnings may need to be considered in the coming days.

[NDG]

And the cloud cover along with a steady wind saved the Orlando area from freezing temps and frost. If the cloud cover stays through most of the night tonight I doubt that we would get any colder than the mid 30s.

[NDG]

I just looked at the ensemble MOS, I think they are handling things better than the operational GFSX MOS which is calling for a low of 27 tonight & 25 for Tuesday night, the esembles average in the low 30s for lows the next 2-3 nights, looks reasonable to me for the Orlando area.

[JonathanBelles]

Lookie here!

BayNews9 for the Tampa Bay Area:

[jdray]

Lookie here!

BayNews9 for the Tampa Bay Area:

Trade you.

Jacksonville Weather Forecast from News4Jax.com

[attallaman]

Lookie here!

BayNews9 for the Tampa Bay Area:

Trade you.

Jacksonville Weather Forecast from News4Jax.com

Explain how you were able to post that image. I tried posting one from my local TV station yesterday but couldn't.

[Jag95]

attallaman, click on the "Img" button and then type or paste the URL between the two HTML tags.

[tampastorm]

Lookie here!

BayNews9 for the Tampa Bay Area:

Can it possibly snow Friday in the Tampa Bay area , maybe north?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the high clouds that have been over FL for the past 20 hours or so are finally starting to break a bit and gradually push south. Because of this, I believe the big cities of central Florida will have a much better shot at reaching freezing tonight than they did last night. Assuming nothing unexpected happens, I think the current forecast lows from the NWS look pretty reasonable (29F in Orlando, 31F in Tampa).

http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/satellite/
http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/satellite/GOES-E/full/WV

UPDATE: It actually might not get as cold as mentioned above. As of 5:53am EDT, Orlando is somewhere in the vicinity of 34-35F (depending on which airport you look at) and the suburbs (based on weatherunderground stations) are right near freezing. With only another hour or two of cooling, the official low in Orlando is going to have a very hard time making it to 29F. Instead, the city will probably see a low somewhere between 30-34F at the two airports this AM, with 28-33F in the suburbs. Colder than last night, that's for sure, but not as cold as it could have been. Over in Tampa it looks like the same deal. The official Tampa International Airport 5:53am report is 36F, so with only 2 or so hours left of cooling..if even..the official low in Tampa will struggle to even make it to 32F. Many of the suburbs will probably get there, but at the airport the official low will probably hold somewhere between 32-35F.

UPDATE #2: At 6:53am EDT the Orlando International Airport is at 33F, the Orlando Executive Airport is at 34F, and the Tampa International Airport is at 35F. The surrounding suburbs are running about 1-4 degrees colder.

[jdray]

Explain how you were able to post that image. I tried posting one from my local TV station yesterday but couldn't.

I use firefox, went to local weather website, right click and view image.
Save image to my desktop, then upload to ImageShack with the Storm2K uploader.
Copy past links.

[NDG]

I told y'all that there was no way it was going to get into the upper 20s in Orlando as the MOS was forecasting for this morning, the MOS ensembles are doing a better job. Tonight through Wednesday night is a different story, if there is any chance looks to be for tomorrow night as the ensemble means show a low of 30 at the airport which could mean the suburbs would be easily in the mid to upper 20s.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Official low temperatures this morning (as of 8am)...
~These values will be revised as needed later~

**Light freeze values highlighted in blue
**Hard freeze values highlighted in pink

Tallahassee -> 23F
Jacksonville -> 30F
Ocala -> 27F
Orlando -> 33F
Tampa -> 34F
Sanford -> 30F
Daytona Beach -> 31F
Melbourne -> 31F
West Palm Beach -> 39F
Fort Myers -> 39F
Miami -> 44F
Key West -> 55F

*note = According to the wxunderground weather stations, the suburbs of the larger cities saw temperatures up to 1-3 degrees colder than what is listed above.