Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

Both the GFS and Euro are showing very different scenarios now for the Halloween time period, backing off significantly from a major cold front. The 0z GFS trough is progressive and not nearly as deep as Friday's run. The Euro, meanwhile, which showed a cutoff low developing in the desert southwest now moves the low through the upper Plains and suggests a double-barrell low structure over the nothern half of the U.S.

Wild variability and little if any consensus. All of this to say, who knows??!

[southerngale]

I hope it's cool on Halloween, not too cold and not hot. Nothing sucks more than putting on your Halloween costume (that you get before you know if it's going to be 80° or 40° outside) and sweating to death. Ah, Texas weather!

[ntxweatherwatcher]

It seems like NWS is unsure of the Halloween forecast. Any guesses for North Texas?

[CaptinCrunch]

It seems like NWS is unsure of the Halloween forecast. Any guesses for North Texas?

NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE ONE MORE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM DAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN
THE WEST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN A CAP OF WARM AIR AND EVENTUALLY ELIMINATE IT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH A COLD
FRONT. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH FORECASTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN EVENT MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS HEAVY AS THE EVENT LAST WEDNESDAY...IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY. POST FRONTAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO
BETTER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER...BREEZY AND COOLER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP IN THE WEST TUESDAY...BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH
TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH PWS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES...BUT SOME FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
LIKELY.

THE REST OF THIS MONTH SHOULD BE DRY WITH THE RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEXT TWO RAIN EVENTS...OCTOBER 2009
COULD EASILY RANK IN THE TOP 5 OF WETTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND MAY EVEN RANK SECOND ONLY TO 1981 WHICH SAW 14.18
INCHES OF RAIN.

[snow and ice]

Looks like another rainy week across North Texas. Flooding will be possible in the Northern and Northeastern counties this week. Looks like a cool down for the end of the week, nothing unusual though. The Ensembles and EURO go zonal the first week of November, bringing mild weather for the first week of November.

8-10 day EURO-Ensemble Mean comparison:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[Portastorm]

Looks like another rainy week across North Texas. Flooding will be possible in the Northern and Northeastern counties this week. Looks like a cool down for the end of the week, nothing unusual though. The Ensembles and EURO go zonal the first week of November, bringing mild weather for the first week of November.

8-10 day EURO-Ensemble Mean comparison:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

Thanks for posting snow and ice ... yes, the ruminations last week of a possible major cold blast for Texas around Halloween have vaporized. Neither the GFS nor the Euro show anything noteworthy in terms of cold coming our way. But indeed, the rains will fall this week for us in two separate events.

[CaptinCrunch]

Things will turn more zonal by the weeks end, so Halloween looks to be a little warmer for highs mid 70's, but still appears to seasonal for lows with lower 50's. We"ll have to wait a few more days to get a better idea, with rain in the forecast thursday and friday the cloud cover may hold down temps a few degrees.

[msstateguy83]

iam not going to hype this one by any means the way the models have been going back and fourth lol BUT
everyone take a look @ the 18z run that just came out of the gfs, it has been going this for quite sometime now
if you have been looking at the afternoon run daily it will pick up on this then change... i still think from around nov7thish -
around nov 11th something big could happen in the central/southern plains including a big round or two of ice & snowfall
possibly as far south dfw.. the key to all of this is the models are NOT picking up on the early above avg winter
we are going to have and thats why its going back, fourth.. iam sticking to my guns on this one and time will tell

[Portastorm]

iam not going to hype this one by any means the way the models have been going back and fourth lol BUT
everyone take a look @ the 18z run that just came out of the gfs, it has been going this for quite sometime now
if you have been looking at the afternoon run daily it will pick up on this then change... i still think from around nov7thish -
around nov 11th something big could happen in the central/southern plains including a big round or two of ice & snowfall
possibly as far south dfw.. the key to all of this is the models are NOT picking up on the early above avg winter
we are going to have and thats why its going back, fourth.. iam sticking to my guns on this one and time will tell

Well, I'm not sure what you've locked on to msstateguy83, but I just am not seeing it. While Monday's 12z Euro run showed a very cold and deep trough over the nation's midsection by around Nov. 5th, that was just one run. The 0z run before it and today's 0z run show nothing like that at all. The 0z GFS also doesn't show anything significant.

Maybe you'll be right and the modeling just doesn't have a clue right now. We shall see.

[gboudx]

Well, I'm not sure what you've locked on to msstateguy83, but I just am not seeing it. While Monday's 12z Euro run showed a very cold and deep trough over the nation's midsection by around Nov. 5th, that was just one run. The 0z run before it and today's 0z run show nothing like that at all. The 0z GFS also doesn't show anything significant.

Maybe you'll be right and the modeling just doesn't have a clue right now. We shall see.

Porta, did you see Cosgrove's newsletter from last evening? It sounds like he thinks the models are out to lunch right now. Here's the pertinent part:

As we head deeper into November, the question arises: will cold air re-enter the weather picture across the lower 48 states? Since last Thursday, the numerical models have trended sharply warmer after November 5. There are good reasons for disagreeing with this mild (warm for Texas) scenario, for a couple of reasons. One is that a prominent subtropical jet stream has been in place through Mexico and just below the Gulf Coast, yet the forecast equations argue for a strong subtropical high over the Deep South (unlikely during a growing El Nino signal). Second is that teleconnections on the big Kelvin wave complex over the equatorial Pacific Ocean would appear to favor -EPO and +PNA ridge signatures to the right of a deepening sub-Aleutian Low. The ECMWF scheme captures this effect beautifully with its 12z Oct 26 run, with an amplified ridge complex stretching from the Yukon Territory into California and the Southwest. Such an alignment would favor drainage of cPk and cA elements into the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. A minority opinion at this point in time, but one which makes sense when applying persistence and climatology to the outlook.

[snow and ice]

The 0z 8-10 day means of both the EURO and Ensembles still show a zonal flow across the lower 48 the first week of November. Since both models have been in general agreement in the long range the past few days, I tend to lean to that scenario.

8-10 Day Ensemble-EURO Means:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[vbhoutex]

The 0z 8-10 day means of both the EURO and Ensembles still show a zonal flow across the lower 48 the first week of November. Since both models have been in general agreement in the long range the past few days, I tend to lean to that scenario.

8-10 Day Ensemble-EURO Means:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

Can't get much more zonal than that. Some interesting divergence of opinions here. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[CaptinCrunch]

Even without the models if you look at the current weather patteren you can see a transition to more zonal setup. I'm guess that the zonal patteren with presist thru the first 10 days of November, then turn back to the current patteren we have seen the past 2+ months.

That means that by mid November we should be ready for some much colder weather and more precip. I'm thinking Thanksgiving 1983 and the Cowboys/Dolphins game.....something to think about aye.

[snow and ice]

Even without the models if you look at the current weather patteren you can see a transition to more zonal setup. I'm guess that the zonal patteren with presist thru the first 10 days of November, then turn back to the current patteren we have seen the past 2+ months.

That means that by mid November we should be ready for some much colder weather and more precip. I'm thinking Thanksgiving 1983 and the Cowboys/Dolphins game.....something to think about aye.

I agree. It's about time for this current pattern to relax and go to a more tranquil weather pattern for the next couple weeks.

[snow and ice]

Looking at the 12z run of the Ensembles. Quite a few of the Ensemble members have a piece of energy swinging around the base of the trough over North Texas on Saturday, making for a cool breezy Halloween night.

12z Ensemble Members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f96.html

12z EURO has pretty much the same solution:
Move your mouse over 96hrs in upper left corner:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[CaptinCrunch]

Looking at the 12z run of the Ensembles. Quite a few of the Ensemble members have a piece of energy swinging around the base of the trough over North Texas on Saturday, making for a cool breezy Halloween night.

12z Ensemble Members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f96.html

12z EURO has pretty much the same solution:
Move your mouse over 96hrs in upper left corner:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

I still expect Halloween night to be pretty chilly, I'm sticking with lows in the upper 40's to lower 50's with a slight WC.

[amawea]

I agree with you CaptinCrunch on the zonal flow for at least the next 10 days. However, it will allow me to tent camp in fairly decent weather for my annual son and friend deer camp in north Arkansas. My 58 year old bones are complaining more and more about these roughing it deer camp outings.
We do have a heated tent with cots but the cold days get to ya after a while. heh.

[gboudx]

What is Cosgrove seeing that is going against what other's here are suggesting will happen next week?

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... iner-email

..........
As was the case with the most recent storm, beautiful cool weather will envelop Texas for the weekend. Temperatures may actually get into the mid/upper 40s (F) in downtown Houston on Sunday morning. And while it might warm up a bit heading into early next week, the numerical models suggest that another, longer extent and duration polar air mass will affect the entire eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least November 5.

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro run for the last two days has shown the development of a major cold trough near the end of its run. However, the 0z Euro has not shown anything like that nor does the GFS. Perhaps that is what LC is keying on ... that and using his 30-plus years as a pro met!

It does seem improbable to this amateur eye but I also have come to respect LC and his forecasts. Seems reasonable to think we'll go zonal for a period of a week or two followed by another pattern change back to the current one.

[snow and ice]

The 12z Euro run for the last two days has shown the development of a major cold trough near the end of its run. However, the 0z Euro has not shown anything like that nor does the GFS. Perhaps that is what LC is keying on ... that and using his 30-plus years as a pro met!

It does seem improbable to this amateur eye but I also have come to respect LC and his forecasts. Seems reasonable to think we'll go zonal for a period of a week or two followed by another pattern change back to the current one.

Both the EURO and the Ensembles are transferring the energy from the northern system to the southern system(the one over northern Texas) for Thursday-Friday-Saturday. This is in contrast as to what the models have been showing for most of the week. This should bring about a severe weather(Large Hail and strong winds)-flooding threat to the Eastern third of Texas Thursday-Friday, with a somewhat more cooler-windier Halloween than previously forecast.
BTW, I really like how the Penn State Wall site includes hrs 0-72 on their EURO model. Most of the other free sites don't show those parameters for some reason.

EURO-Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html