Citrus & Florida Freeze Event 1/21-1/22/09

[ronjon]

Here are some lows from official stations in FL - from the FAWN network this morning, I noticed readings of 25 and 26 deg at Ona and Arcadia in Hardee and DeSoto Counties and a low of 28 in Belle Glade/Immokalee near the big lake. These are in the heart of growing regions (citrus and veggies) so I'm sure there will be major crop damage. Here is the link to the FAWN network for individual station data.

http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/

ASUS62 KTBW 221529
RTPTBW
REGIONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1029 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009

...24 HOUR HIGHS/LOWS/PRECIPITATION...

PCPN HIGH LOW

ARCHBOLD :ACHF1 0.00 54 15
AVON PARK 2W :AVPF1 0.00 51 25
BRADENTON :BRAF1 0.00 49 37
BROOKSVILLE :BKV 0.00 46 20
BROOKSVILLE 5NNE :BROF1 0.00 49 23
CHIEFLAND 5SE :CHIF1 0.00 MSG MSG
FORT MYERS/PAGE FIELD :FMY 0.00 56 33
FORT MYERS/SW INT APT :RSW 0.00 55 32
INVERNESS 3SE :INVF1 0.00 49 20
LAKE WALES :LWLF1 MSG MSG MSG
LAKELAND LINDER FIELD :LLDF1 0.00 51 29
ONA :ONAF1 MSG MSG MSG
OSPREY :OSPF1 0.00 MSG MSG
PLANT CITY LCF1 0.00 50 30
PUNTA GORDA GD 0.00 56 26
RUSKIN :TBW 0.00 50 32
SARASOTA/BRADENTON APT :SRQ 0.00 52 31
ST LEO :STLF1 0.00 49 29
ST PETE/ALBERT WHITTED :SPG 0.00 49 42
ST PETE/CLEARWATER APT IE 0.00 50 35
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL APT :TPA 0.00 51 34
TARPON SPRINGS :TRPF1 0.00 46 35
VENICE :VNCF1 0.00 52 35
WINTER HAVEN/GILBERT APT :GIF 0.00 51 30

[jinftl]

As far as I have seen, no record lows were set across the state last night ....in some places the cold temps were not even close to records for the date (i.e., Miami's low of 43 deg last night compared to record low of 30 deg for the date)....most places were within 5-10 deg of records for the date...a testament to how cold it has in fact gotten this time of year across the sunshine state before.

[ronjon]

As far as I have seen, no record lows were set across the state last night ....in some places the cold temps were not even close to records for the date (i.e., Miami's low of 43 deg last night compared to record low of 30 deg for the date)....most places were within 5-10 deg of records for the date...a testament to how cold it has in fact gotten this time of year across the sunshine state before.

Pretty tough to beat records from 1985. Some All time record lows recorded for the state during that event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.wftv.com/news/18540134/detail.html

[goCoogs]

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/jan/22 ... ter-today/

[jasons2k]

After reviewing some more of the data, it looks like this freeze was a bit worse than I had originally thought, al least in areas away from the urban centers.

Just some examples: North Port - 28F, Lehigh Acres - 27F, Punta Gorda - 26F, Odessa - 23F, Lakeland - 20F, Spring Hill - 19F, Archbold - 15F.

This one did some damage for sure and I really feel for gardeners down there right now.

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt get a chance to go out and look at our fruit or other vegetation today, but I will today. I think, again I havent had a chance to look at the records, that we got to nothing higher than 32. I dont expect much damage for the citrus if we got to that temp.

[jasons2k]

I saw one report in Pinellas Park of 31F but I think almost all of Pinellas stayed above freezing. From what I have read, this freeze didn't have a major impact in the citrus industry. Some grapefruit was lost NW of Orlando but that is about it that I can find. I think the major concern was the various vegetables, etc., such as lettuce, that are grown around Lake O. I also saw reports that the mango trees have already bloomed so they are toast as well.

My aunt in Dunedin reported this:

It was 36 in the car just after 6:05AM...no frost on the car and maybe not in the yard (too dark to tell). The temp off the library upstairs was 31-32, and the temp on the screened back patio close to the house was around 42. As I drove east on Curlew, the temp got as low as 31 at Curlew and County Road 1. There was frost on the grass at work (Oldsmar), and several people said they had frost on their windshields.

[JonathanBelles]

From what I am hearing from friends and observations, most (60+%) went below freezing. Numerous spots went below 30. Everywhere except the heat island went below 34.

[JonathanBelles]

Local met just said Plant City (Strawberry Capitol) dipped down to 25°! That had to have done some damage!

[shibumi]

I saw one report in Pinellas Park of 31F but I think almost all of Pinellas stayed above freezing. From what I have read, this freeze didn't have a major impact in the citrus industry. Some grapefruit was lost NW of Orlando but that is about it that I can find. I think the major concern was the various vegetables, etc., such as lettuce, that are grown around Lake O. I also saw reports that the mango trees have already bloomed so they are toast as well.

Mangos definitely might have been in danger...leaf, flower, and fruit damage below 40 - possible tree kill if long enough below freezing.

many mangos probably did OK because of their proximity to houses and other trees....as opposed to being in an open field.

Lettuce though I am happy to say, is a colder weather veg...it laughs at freezing temps and has no problem with it....

I have had 15 freezes at my house and 4 inches of snow Dec 11th, and my lettuce, carrots, beets, scallions, cabbage, and onions are as happy as can be!

[jasons2k]

Hmm, interersting. Maybe that depends on the variety of lettuce? I have always thought/read that lettuce was a cool weather crop (does not like heat over about 75F) but a freeze, especially a hard freeze can be very damaging or even deadly.

I know that the California lettuce crop in particular has had devastating impacts with freezes before. A quick Google search confirms that.

Maybe you have a more hardy variety?

[shibumi]

Hmm, interersting. Maybe that depends on the variety of lettuce? I have always thought/read that lettuce was a cool weather crop (does not like heat over about 75F) but a freeze, especially a hard freeze can be very damaging or even deadly.

I know that the California lettuce crop in particular has had devastating impacts with freezes before. A quick Google search confirms that.

Maybe you have a more hardy variety?

Then it is by chance that everything I planted was cold hardy! I have a mix of different kinds and they all seem fine. Forgot to mention spinach as well....

Just to give you an example of the freezes I have had this month (I live north of Lake Pontchartrain north of New Orleans).

12th - 30 F
13th - 32 F
14th - 28 F
15th - 31 F
16th - 28 F
17th - 29 F
20th - 28 F
21st - 24 F
22nd - 31 F

They were covered in snow for over a day back in December....

[JonathanBelles]

I just went out and looked at the plants. Between the two frosts (this morning's frost was very heavy), most of the venerable plants were hit hard. Plants that were close to the house were fine, except one which must have been hit by wind or something is completely shriveled. Any grass that wasnt dead before, is now. The Citrus trees dont seem to have been hit at all. There werent many oranges left on the tree anyway, so I dont expect any long term damage beyond last years freezes and the fire season the year before. Ill take pictures in 48 hours of everything.

[fci]

There seems to be a looming threat for this weekend; 1/30; 1/31. This could add to the damage from the last event.

[jinftl]

NWS Melbourne

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FRI NIGHT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AND THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS THE 850 MB FREEZING LINE GETTING DOWN TO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA (WHICH IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AS IT GOT DURING LAST
WEEKS COLD EVENT). THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO LOOK AT FUTURE
MODEL RUNS...BUT WITH THE HIGH CENTER STAYING FARTHER NORTH...THIS
COLD SNAP DOES NOT LOOK LIKE NEARLY THE CREATURE THAT HIT US
RECENTLY.

SAT-TUE (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD TWD THE FL
PANHANDLE SAT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING DOWN THE STATE. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPR 30S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID
60S SOUTH. A QUICK RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED SUN/MON AS
HIGH CENTER ELONGATES AND PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLC. 00Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TWD
FL BY TUE SO WILL BEING TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEW DAY7
FCST AND INTRODUCE A LOW POP. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BACK TWD
SEASONAL LEVELS LOWS IN THE UPR 40S/LWR 50S AND HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LWR 70S

[fci]

Miami NWS shows more uncertainty:


Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday...models continue to
show significant changes through this period. A short wave over the
southwest U.S. Will move east to southeast U.S. By Wednesday evening. This will
result in a long wave trough amplifying over most of the country
east of The Rockies and dragging a front across central Florida by
Thursday morning and across South Florida Friday morning and afternoon.
Although, GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in better agreement as to when the front
could move through the area, GFS continues to be slightly faster.
Precipitation associated with this system does not look to be significant,
still believe GFS may be overdoing it, by indicating high scattered to
likely probability of precipitation in some areas. Most of the moisture in the model could
actually be in the way of low/middle level cloud cover. Will still keep scattered
probability of precipitation mainly as the front moves through. The main weather problem
with this system will be min temperatures again. How cold will it
get? Well, GFS continues to trend down with expected min temps, not
only for Saturday, but also for Sunday. Latest 1000-850 mb thickness
values for Sat morning now range from 1325 in mia to 1305 in lake
Okee region in the GFS while European model (ecmwf) still indicates 1350 to 1330 in
European model (ecmwf). These values are slightly lower than the previous run but
still higher than the previous cold event we had few days ago an so
surface temperatures are not expected to be as low, however the potential for
freezing temperatures especially Saturday morning is increasing and for
that reason a freeze outlook has been issued indicating the
potential for near freezing/or freezing temperatures for northwest interior
portions of S. Florida. As of now, will go with temperatures slightly higher
than the freezing mark over Glades/Hendry ranging to middle 40s southeast
coast...upper 30s to lower 40s West Coast. This forecast could
change significantly between now and Friday night so interest in S.
Florida should keep monitoring future forecast packages and be
prepared to act should a more definite/pronounced trend is observed.
The long wave trough should quickly move east off the East Coast by
Sat night under a progressive pattern and a ridge should built over
southeast U.S. With a gradual warm up Sat night through Sun night before
another vigorous trough digs south over eastern U.S. By Monday. GFS shows
another strong cold front associated with this trough moving through
the local area by early part of next week.

[jinftl]

NWS Miami update this morning...

THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW COLD WILL IT GET OVER
OUR NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS MID
30S WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AT ABOUT 36 WITH THE LOWEST MEMBER
SHOWING ABOUT 34. HOWEVER, THE 00Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1323 FOR MIA TO 1305 IN THE
LAKE OKEE REGION. NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE ECMWF ARE SHOWING QUITE
THAT LOW OF NUMBERS BUT STILL COLD. THE COLDER GFS WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND IF IT CONTINUES THIS TREND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT LOWER ITS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY IN
LATER RUNS. SO AT THIS TIME, DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THE MID 30S
FCST FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND WILL ALSO LEAVE THE FREEZE
OUTLOOK THAT WAS ISSUED TODAY RUNNING ITS COURSE.

THEN ALL MODELS AGREE THAT BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE GA COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH WIND
WILL BE NEAR CALM AS THEY DECOUPLE OVER THE LAND, WIND JUST ABOVE
THE SFC WILL BE SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL
MODIFY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E CST. SO AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF COLD BLAST.

[ronjon]

Could be another major freeze in the offing for even south FL next Tues-Wed. O deg 850 mb line all the way to homestead from many runs of the GFS now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks interesting for Florida next week. I wouldn't at all be surprised if another freeze event plagued the state.