North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

#21 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:37 am

Captin ... that is horrible news! Right now, we (Austin) are at a precipitation deficit of 11 1/2 inches for the year. If you look at the latest state drought map, the dark reds are centered right over Travis County (and counties right around us).

I had been encouraged by next week's maps per the GFS and Euro, showing some decent precip amounts for our part of Texas. :roll:

#22 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:53 am

Yeah some rain to wash the ragweed pollen out of the air would be nice. Ike dumped some rain and caused the ragweed to explode. Pollen levels have been extremely high ever since and allergy sufferers(like me and my family) have been miserable.

#23 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 12:12 pm

While I'm hoping for a little rain next week and cooler temps by next weekend, here's a little something to brighten our day's ahead. :ggreen:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AKDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON
THE HILLS ABOVE 1500 FEET. IN ADDITION...A NORTHEAST WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON THE HILLS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON
THE STEESE HIGHWAY SUMMITS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THIS SITUATION.

$$
FPAK53PAFG_AKZ222
-----------------
AKZ222-030300-
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...CHENA
HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
347 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM AKDT FRIDAY...
.TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AFTER NOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 30 TO 35. NORTHEAST
WINDS TO 10 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
LOWS 20 TO 30. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE STEESE HIGHWAY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS 30 TO 35. NORTH
WINDS TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY
FOG. LOWS 10 TO 20. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 30 TO
35. NORTHEAST WINDS TO 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 20.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 35.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 20.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS NEAR 35.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS NEAR 20.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS NEAR 35.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS NEAR 20.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS NEAR 35.

Extremeweatherguy · #24 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:14 pm

If the models are right, then it may only be a matter of time before the first tastes of winter arrive in the southern plains...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

#25 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Oct 03, 2008 9:43 am

THE RAINMAN COMETH

THE BIG NEWS OF THIS FORECAST IS THE ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC UPPER
TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND IT/S AFFECTS ON NORTH TEXAS
SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. COME SUNDAY...A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE FULLY DEVELOPED AND GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. A WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL START CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AIDING LOW
LEVEL FORCING. IN ADDITION...A SPEED MAX ALOFT...ELEVATED
CAPES...FAVORABLE LIFT INDICES AND MID LEVEL COOLING WILL KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN
UPPER LOW EARLY WEDNESDAY AND SLOW DOWN. SOME WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA AS
FRONTAL CONVECTION EXITS THE SOUTHEAST CWA LATER IN THE DAY.

LOOKING BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
HALF OF THE MONTH. THIS WILL BRING MORE COLD FRONTS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

:ggreen:

#26 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:27 am

Well the rain was nice to have and we got just over a inch here at the house. I see that more rain could be in the near future and it looks like we will see the first true fall front by Tuesday of next week with H/L temps in the lower 70's and upper 40's.

I will getting the Fall and Halloween Decorations out this weekend, so I hope the weather does turn much cooler. Plus I already started burning the Pumpkin spice candle's and the house smells like Fall. :cheesy:

#27 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:23 am

very chilly morning here, woke up to low 50's this morning, weather station out front reported 51 degrees. :ggreen:

#28 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:02 pm

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END WITH AN INCREASE IN
PACIFIC MOISTURE STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...
HOWEVER EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY MORNING IN UPSLOPE/WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN /AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE/ MAY HANG AROUND ALL NEXT WEEK UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT ON
FRIDAY CAN FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF ANY
FRONTS BEYOND MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH
UPCOMING MODEL RUNS AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS...AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.

#29 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 11:08 am

CaptinCrunch Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Theo,
>
> Been a long time since I posted here and just
> thought I would give you a shout. I live in North
> Texas (D/FW area) and have been working on my
> winter forecast for this part of TX. I have gone
> the way of Halloween as my analog for the coming
> winter as history has shown if Halloween night was
> mild then winter was above normal (warmer) on avg,
> and if Halloween night was very chilly (heavy
> Jacket weather) then winter turned out colder and
> wetter than normal.
>
> What do you see in the stars for Winter 08/09 here
> in North Texas. I have a feeling that this may be
> one of the colder winters in recent memory.
>
>
>
> Happy Holidays to you and yours,
>
> Captain
----------------------------------------------------------
Theo Wrote:

For northern Texas, colder than normal, and wetter than normal this winter season. Expect some interesting weather with fog this month, and into early November with cold winds by mid-November, and a very wet, and snowy month of December. The air is much colder in January and early February in your region. Enjoy the winter!

Theodore White, Astrolog.CSA
Classical Scientific Astrologer
Pro Astrometeorologist

"As Above, So Below."
http://www.spaceweather.com

#30 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:11 pm

I have seen plenty of references to a lack of solar sunspots lately and a possible effect on the global temperatures, but I didn't realize that space weather has been honed down to specific predictions for seasonal weather.

Do we have any verifications of previous winter forecasts from Mr. White? I'm curious.

#31 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 3:42 pm

Portastorm wrote:I have seen plenty of references to a lack of solar sunspots lately and a possible effect on the global temperatures, but I didn't realize that space weather has been honed down to specific predictions for seasonal weather.

Do we have any verifications of previous winter forecasts from Mr. White? I'm curious.

Here is last winter's thread and this years as well.. Seem he was right on with the winter storm and the weather in N. CA around San Francisco this past week and weekend. Some who followed his Winter outlook from last year said he was pretty dead on, so we can only hope he's right about this year.

Indian Summer in Fall 2007
http://www.almanac.com/forum/read.php?9,182221,page=1
Winter 2007/08
http://www.almanac.com/forum/read.php?9,201044,page=1

Winter 2008/09
http://www.almanac.com/forum/read.php?9,258244

#32 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 11:38 am

Cold front and rain made it's way in yesterday and what a difference it made, todays high wont make it out of the upper 60's and we will be seeing lows tonight and friday night inthe lower 50's and upper 40's acros the D/FW area with colder lows to the NW. The weekend looks awesome with high's in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's.

Look to see a warm up back into the lower 80's by first of next week but that shoulden't last long as another front looks to make it in here by mid week dropping us back into the mid to upper 70's.

cheezyWXguy · #33 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Oct 16, 2008 10:37 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Cold front and rain made it's way in yesterday and what a difference it made, todays high wont make it out of the upper 60's and we will be seeing lows tonight and friday night inthe lower 50's and upper 40's acros the D/FW area with colder lows to the NW. The weekend looks awesome with high's in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's.

Look to see a warm up back into the lower 80's by first of next week but that shoulden't last long as another front looks to make it in here by mid week dropping us back into the mid to upper 70's.

and it could actually be much colder after the next front, based on the wording of our afd, but im too lazy to quote it.

#34 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:09 pm

Hey CaptinCrunch, looks like Halloween has come onto the 15 day Accuweather forecast. I know it's all computer generated and not worth crap this far out. But I'll post the Halloween forecasts to see how things fare. BTW, this is for Rockwall.

10/17/2008

Friday, Oct 31
Intermittent Clouds
Times of clouds and sun
High: 75 °F
Low: 54 °F

#35 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:52 pm

gboudx wrote:Hey CaptinCrunch, looks like Halloween has come onto the 15 day Accuweather forecast. I know it's all computer generated and not worth crap this far out. But I'll post the Halloween forecasts to see how things fare. BTW, this is for Rockwall.

10/17/2008

Friday, Oct 31
Intermittent Clouds
Times of clouds and sun
High: 75 °F
Low: 54 °F

Yeah accucrap is the WORST at it's forecast....lol

Looking at the global weather patterns and the fact that we are starting to see that cooler weather creeping down from the NW I feel confindent that Halloween will be pretty cool with the possibility of being wet as well. We are starting that patteren of seeing cool fronts every few days and from what I'm looking at a really cold, cold front in here shortly after the first of November. The lack of solar activity is also a good sign that the coming winter will be colder than normal, and I'm trying to find info on the solar activity going into the winters of 77/78 and 78/79.

I need a freaking cold ass winter, cuz I'm just sick of all the global warming crap. :froze:

#36 Postby **gboudx** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 1:55 pm

Starting to see a lot more leaf color change out this way too. My grass has slowed down it's growth quite a bit as well, which is good. I'm sick of cutting it. Need a good frost to just finish it off.

#37 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 2:16 pm

gboudx wrote:Starting to see a lot more leaf color change out this way too. My grass has slowed down it's growth quite a bit as well, which is good. I'm sick of cutting it. Need a good frost to just finish it off.

I cut the lawn last weekend (scalped it), so I'm done with the mowing for the season, and yes I a good frost would be awesome. November 22 is the offical avg date for the first freeze (32) of the season, I'm going out on a limb and calling out the first freeze before that date.

Extremeweatherguy · #38 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Oct 17, 2008 11:58 pm

If the 00z GFS were to verify, then I think it is safe to say that this would wind up being a very chilly Halloween for the southern Plains...

Halloween morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

Halloween evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

Morning of Nov. 1st = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

cheezyWXguy · #39 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Oct 18, 2008 12:11 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:If the 00z GFS were to verify, then I think it is safe to say that this would wind up being a very chilly Halloween for the southern Plains...

Halloween morning = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

Halloween evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

Morning of Nov. 1st = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

dang, if that verified that would give us a good shot at having our first freeze almost a month earlier than average

Extremeweatherguy · #40 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Oct 19, 2008 11:50 am

Today's 12z GFS now brings in that big cold shot just before Halloween...

Oct. 27th = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

Oct. 28th = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

Oct. 29th = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

Oct. 30th = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

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